谢祖墀 | 管理咨询:问题的类别

在去年10 月份的《亚布力论坛》杂志的专栏上, 我发表了一篇名为《管理咨询的关键:问题的界定》的文章。在这篇文章里,我讨论了在管理咨询的工作里,问题定义(problem definition) 的重要性。客户来找咨询顾问帮忙是因为他在经营管理方面有着他自己不能解决的问题。而许多咨询公司在问题定义上做得不好,往往是他们在市场上做不好的根本原因。而且几乎没有咨询公司会给予他们的顾问做“问题定义重要性”的相关培训,或者有亦是流于表面。一些所谓咨询的合伙人连基本的训练都没有,就去为客户做咨询,当然效果不好。

在我过去20 多年的咨询工作生涯里,无论是从我亲自领军的项目里,还是从旁观察其他咨询顾问的工作,我发现对咨询项目的成败起着最关键作用的因素就是对客户问题的界定。成功的项目必定是在问题界定上做对了;反过来说,不成功的项目往往问题的根源是顾问在问题定义上做得不好或根本没做。

前不久我看到了一些对于管理咨询评论的文章, 包括一些由在国际上有点声誉的学者所发表的,很可惜普遍来说,这些评论不是隔靴搔痒,就是连咨询的基本本质都弄错了。真正明白高端咨询的人还不很多。

过去我在博斯公司当董事长时,我已经开始思考问题识别的方式。我将客户常见的问题分成五类,由一至五,一为最简单,而五为最复杂(见图一)

第一类问题是对已知的事物进行拓展,延伸至一个或多个维度。典型的第一类问题是一般的市场评估及研究、或市场进入战略和调整当前运营的项目。而应付此类问题的思路是线性和渐进式的。

第二类问题是对现有信息进行对标分析。这些对标分析往往包括组织、运营、流程和人事等。如上一类问题一样,应付此类问题的思路亦是线性和渐进式的。

第三类问题是识别一个或几个维度的非线性特性。此类问题涵盖了较复杂的市场评估,需要向前观的市场进入战略或较复杂的运营战略。所需的解决思路是非线性、单一(或多个)维度。

第四类问题需要识别多个维度的非线性及不确定性的趋势。这类工作典型包括增长战略和全球整合,而思路是非线性、多维度的。

最复杂的是第五类问题,此类问题往往是以奇点(singularity) 或模糊状态(ambiguities)方式出现。典型工作包括新一代的新产品或服务和新业务模式的战略。要解决此类问题的思路必须要非线性、多维度和跳跃式的思维。

咨询顾问首要的工作就是要将客户的问题弄清楚,在上述的问题框架里究竟它属于哪一类。问题的识别很重要,因为面对不同的问题,解决问题的思路和方法论是有所不同的。用第一类问题的解决方法要处理最复杂的第五类问题肯定不能成功,因为工具太简单而问题太复杂。相反来说,用解决第五类问题的方法去处理第一类问题则是“杀鸡用了牛刀”, 输入和输出不成比例。

所以将客户问题正确识别,不仅仅是识别的问题,同样重要的是将问题的复杂性与解决问题的思路和手法形成一致。这一致性是咨询工作中最奥妙的地方之一,亦是许多咨询顾问最通常犯错误的地方。

在高风,我们将这些观点和方法论编入了公司内部培训课程里,让我们的咨询顾问对这些关键工作得到正确的训练,在客户工作上能达到最佳的效果,我们称此课程为“第五级的难题解决之道” (Level 5 Problem Solving)。

今天的经营环境日益复杂,它的发展速度越发快速,非连续性在多维的出现令企业家们面临的问题越趋第五类问题。亦即代表咨询顾问必须掌握解决此类复杂问题的思维方式和方法论。跟不上时代的咨询顾问必定会被客户所唾弃,跟得上的甚至能跳跃于时代之前、能为客户在错综复杂的环境中寻找到最佳答案的咨询顾问们,必定能将客户需求吸引到他们那里,成为“需求的吸引者”(Attractors of Demand)。

摘自《亚布力观点》(2016年5月刊)并保留所有权利

关于作者:
谢祖墀博士(Dr. Edward Tse)是高风管理咨询公司(Gao Feng Advisory Company)的创始人兼首席执行官。中国管理咨询业的先行者。过去的20年里,他创立并领导了两大国际管理咨询公司在大中华区的业务。外界评价他为“中国的全球领先商业战略家”和 “谢博士之于中国企业界就如大前研一之于日本企业界”。他曾为数以百计的公司(总部设在中国及其它地区)咨询过所有关键战略和管理方面的业务,涉及中国的各个方面和中国在全球的地位。他还为中国政府在战略、国有企业改革和中国企业走出国门等方面做过咨询。他已发表200多篇文章并出版了4本书,其中包括于国际获奖的《中国战略》和《创业家精神》。谢博士获得了加州大学伯克利分校工程学博士、MBA以及麻省理工学院的工程学学士、硕士。

 

Forbes | Foreign Firms Need New Strategies For China’s ‘New Normal’

May 16, 2016 @ 01:55 AM | Forbes
By Edward Tse

Multinational corporations (MNCs) started making significant investments in China back in the early 1990s in particular after Deng Xiaoping made his now famous “visit to the south” in 1992. Over a couple of decades of investing in China, MNCs’ attitude on China has evolved. Broadly speaking, there are now three distinct groups of companies we can classify according to their market views. The first group includes MNCs who have come to China, made investments and being unsuccessful, decided that China is not their cup of tea. They generally found it difficult to be profitable and some have withdrawn from China. Examples of these include Home Depot HD +0.31%, Best Buy BBY +0.32%, Media Markt, and Mattel MAT +1.36%. The second group of companies are those belonging to sectors with overcapacity – often quite significant ones – in China. These companies include the cement sector, steel, aluminum and the like. These companies are typically in a wait-and-see mode, waiting to see if and when the overcapacity may be managed away. The final group of companies are those who have found China to be a major, and often highly profitable market. For them, China is one of their largest, if not the largest market in the world. Prime examples are the car makers such as VW/Audi , BMW, Daimler, General Motors and Ford. But this group also include others like Starbucks, Nike and Honeywell. Recently, Apple reported a drop of its quarterly earnings by 13% and China contributed to 26% of that drop.

The Chinese government continues to open more sectors for non-state capital to participate in and it is also visibly applying more stringent laws and policies such as those in anti-trust and anti-corruption. In the open sectors in China, competition is extremely intensive, often the most intensive in the world. In addition to their usual MNC competitors, MNCs will also have to deal with local Chinese competitors, some state-owned and some privately-owned. While MNCs are somewhat used to how other MNCs compete, the ways that the Chinese companies compete are often quite different and hence surprising. The leading Chinese private companies have become increasingly more competitive and in many cases innovative across a wide range of industries. The leading private companies are disrupting traditional businesses with incredible speed and intensity. The rapidly changing, complicated and ambiguous operating environment in China is catching MNCs off guard. Increasingly, MNCs now realize they cannot just apply their cookie cutter ways from the rest of the world to China and that they need to adapt. The question is how and when and all this will need to be aligned and accepted at headquarters.

Though economic growth in China has slowed (off a larger base), the growth of some sectors continues to be very strong. Demand for innovations in the healthcare and environmental sectors is very strong. China became the world’s largest robotics market with purchases making up 25% of the global total. The on-demand mobility app Didi Chuxing totaled 1.43 billion rides in 2015 alone, in contrast to Uber, which took six years to hit 1 billion rides worldwide. Chinese travelers spent US$184B abroad, making them one of the largest tourist segments globally by spending. While there are some structural problems in China’s economy, the growth that is cast within the context of a complicated and fast changing environment will bring a variety of leapfrogging phenomena and is filled with both tremendous opportunities as well as challenges for everyone, MNCs included. The key for MNCs is to know how to strategically anticipate and capture these opportunities and handle the challenges properly. Those MNCs who see the opportunities coming from China, will stay and continue to invest, and if they manage to build the right capabilities on the ground – both tangible and intangible – they will be able to compete effectively.

Years ago, when MNCs started pouring into China, they were the dream employers for China’s youths. Compared to other options at the time, MNCs’ salaries were higher and they provided better training, often accompanied by opportunities to go abroad. Using English daily gave the young Chinese people a sense of glamor and cosmopolitism. If the company they worked for was an elite brand like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble or Microsoft, just mentioning this to others would bring them a sense of pride and accomplishment. At that point of time, employment at MNCs was without a doubt the goal of China’s best and brightest.

In the wake of their operations in China, foreign MNCs find their standing with China’s youth in a constant state of flux. For the past couple of decades, many MNCs would often claim that China is their (most) important and strategic market, and that in China they need to “localize.” However, for many, “localization” simply means hiring some token Chinese managers or in some cases, expatriates who have lived in China for a long time. These roles would have nice sounding titles like “China Chairman” or “China CEO” but they often lack full business authority or decision making capabilities. In almost all cases, these local executives are not placed at the core of thought leadership generation at the largest levels of the company for driving China’s strategy, organizations or business models, and for that matter, those for defining China’s role in the company’s global strategy. These considerations and decisions are, typically, in the realm of the global or regional headquarters. In most cases, the so-called “local management” is only for execution and has little real authority.

Many local talents who work for MNCs after a while would find their jobs unfulfilling. Some of them query the MNC employers’ lack of “higher-order purpose” while others find the relatively slow speed of decision making coupled with a general feeling that “the HQ people just don’t get China” a real source of frustration. To be fair, there are many MNCs that are genuine in their desire to hire and groom local talents. Some even make it a strategic imperative. And, at least some MNCs really want their best Chinese managers to eventually make it to the top echelon of their global organizations. However, some MNCs are also frustrated by the locals’ inability to transform themselves into real business thought leaders and by their seeming lack of loyalty. For a handful of MNCs who have had the good fortune of recruiting some real outstanding Chinese talent, their CEOs or HQ senior executives often become defensive after the Chinese executives repeatedly tell them that “China is different.” For the very best Chinese, the opportunities in China today are just overwhelming. As innovation and entrepreneurship are becoming the mainstream in China, career opportunities with significant upside potential are being made available to many young people. MNCs are no longer the best employment option. Creating new ways to win the human capital battle in China will be key for MNCs.

As China continues to evolve, opportunities and risks will inevitably surface and so the context for developing China’s strategy will also evolve. MNCs must understand the context better and leverage that into their strategies, organizations and capabilities.

About the Author
Edward Tse is founder & CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm with roots in China. A pioneer in China’s management consulting profession, he led the Greater China operations for two major international management consulting firms for 20 years and is widely known as China’s leading global business strategist. He is author of The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015).