新浪财经 | 谢祖墀:难题解决的第一原则法

文 | 谢祖墀 高风咨询公司董事长

企业的表现与它的领导者风格和领导能力有着密切的关系。正如清华控股集团董事长徐井宏所说的,不成功的企业都有它们的共性,但成功的企业是有它的个别特性的。这是对的,因为一家成功的企业必定具有其领导者深深的烙印,但领导者的性格和管理方法可以非常不一样。马云、马化腾、任正非、张瑞敏、马明哲等人都在风格上有很大的差异,但他们领导的企业却都不约而同地取得了相当瞩目的成就。

企业领导者其实是难题的解决者(problem solvers)。在每一家企业发展的过程中,它必定会经历着无数的难题,其中有琐碎的,亦有非常重要的。特别是与企业发展和生死存亡相关的议题上,领导者能否带领企业做出正确的决定往往对于企业的发展甚至生死存亡起着关键的作用。

在快速变化,经常模棱两可的经营环境里,企业领导者不能只拥有一种思维方式或考虑问题的方法。他们必须在多个维度下进行不断的动态平衡。在解决难题方面,他必须具有以下五种平衡的能力:

1)他必须要聚焦(focus),但同时必须拥有足够的边缘视野(peripheral vision)。
一个优秀的企业家当然需要对业务高度专注,但却也不能忽视在周围正在发生的变化,因为往往周边的变化有可能会颠覆企业核心业务的发展甚至关系到企业安危。

2)他必须很清楚企业发展的方向,但同时亦能接受高度的不确定性。
事实上,企业的发展是阶段性的,在每个阶段中它的愿景、方向都有可能有所调整或起码从较模糊的状态变成较清晰的状态,但新的模糊亦可能会同时出现。企业领导者不仅必须接受高度的不确定性,同时还要尽可能地将企业的方向和愿景用最简单的语言与员工、股东和其他利益相关者紧密地沟通。

3)企业领导者当然必须具有相当的战略眼光,但同时他亦能将企业的战略落地。
这一点是最明显的了,不用详解。

4)企业领导者在面临新的机会,意识到其与目前业务和能力之间的差距时,必须具有能决定“跳”与“不跳”的战略判断。
在现今快速变化的环境里,新的市场机会经常出现,对许多企业家来说,他要做出要不要从现有的业务走到新业务的判断,尽管他的企业未必拥有足够运营新业务的所有关键能力。

5)企业领导者必须平衡担任“分析员”(analyst)与“难题解决者”(problem solver)的角色。
当然,难题的解决必定建立于分析之上,没有分析,就没有基础来解决问题。但企业领导者不能只是过分地单纯分析,为分析而分析。他必须面对问题并领导问题的解决。

所以尽管领导者的风格可以有所不同,处理问题的方式可以不一样,但在主要的考虑点上,他们必须做出同样的平衡。具体的平衡点可以不一样,但考虑的维度是一致的。

故此,在今天的商业环境里,杰出的企业家必须对知识非常尊重。因为知识和企业家本身的经历是分析和解决问题的重要基石。企业家必须要勤读书,在问题和观察新的事物上不断地反思,并建立一个知识源泉的网络,此网络上应具有能交手和切磋的有识之士,无分国界或行业边界,令企业家能够透过它来不断地接受最新的和来自于不同方面的信息。

解决问题的方法有几种。当然,最简单亦是最“土豪”的就是“拍脑袋”,这是直觉和随意的,是最低等级的思维方式。另一种很普遍的方法,就是“剪贴”(“cut and paste”)。即过往是怎样分析的,目前或将来我们亦用同样的方法或方法论来进行分析。这是线性的思维方式,在一个比较静态的环境里,这种方式是有点作用的。事实上,这亦是不少管理咨询公司采取的方法。它们将难题解决的方法编成模块,将模块变成工具,而将工具交给缺乏经验的年轻咨询顾问为客户“解决问题”,这当然是很不理想的做法。

事实上,在今天瞬息万变的社会中,企业领导者必须将难题解决回归到它的基础原始点。在管理学来言,亦即“第一原则”(first principles problem solving)。

第一原则包涵了以下五个步骤:

问题的界定(problem definition),亦即问题的本质是什么?企业领导者必须对于面临的问题的本质有着最深入、清晰的了解,不能人云亦云。

模式的识别(pattern definition),在芸芸的数据里,如何找到最为关键的模式。这不单是大数据完全能解决的问题,人的判断仍是最为关键的。

思维框架的建立(framework building)。如何建立可行、实用的分析框架来协助决策者建立为数不多亦不少的战略选项。

战略选项的比较(strategic options trade-offs)。所有难题都有不同解决的方法选项,但究竟如何甄别和抉择?

建立执行的路线图。所有决策必须具有可行的执行路线图包括其所需参与的资源,主要里程碑和衡量标准。

善用第一原则法来解决难题是成功企业家最根本的能力。在我遇到的芸芸企业家中,包括国内和国际上的,有少部分掌握了此能力,尽管他们不一定受过这方面的培训或启发,此种能力可以与生俱来或后期熏陶。但却亦有不少企业家还未能意识到此种能力的必要性和重要性,对他们来说,企业发展的确任重而道远。

本文发布于新浪财经,原文摘自《亚布力观点》(2016年12月刊)并保留所有权利

关于作者:
谢祖墀博士(Dr. Edward Tse)是高风管理咨询公司(Gao Feng Advisory Company)的创始人兼首席执行官。中国管理咨询业的先行者。过去的20年里,他创立并领导了两大国际管理咨询公司在大中华区的业务。外界评价他为“中国的全球领先商业战略家”和 “谢博士之于中国企业界就如大前研一之于日本企业界”。他曾为数以百计的公司(总部设在中国及其它地区)咨询过所有关键战略和管理方面的业务,涉及中国的各个方面和中国在全球的地位。他还为中国政府在战略、国有企业改革和中国企业走出国门等方面做过咨询。他已发表200多篇文章并出版了4本书,其中包括于国际获奖的《中国战略》和《创业家精神》。谢博士获得了加州大学伯克利分校工程学博士、MBA以及麻省理工学院的工程学学士、硕士。

 

TECHINASIA | What happened to Xiaomi?

By Dr. Edward Tse
1:39 PM at Oct 25, 2016

Xiaomi, a Chinese electronics company founded in 2010, is often regarded as the Apple of China. It became the world’s most valuable “unicorn” in 2014, with a private valuation of more than US$46 billion.

Though it is best known for low-cost, value-for-money smartphones, Xiaomi is not merely a smartphone manufacturer. It has been aggressively building an ecosystem of smart connected devices, including: smart TVs, air purifiers, sports cameras, VR devices, drones, and even smart rice cookers.

Xiaomi became China’s largest smartphone brand in 2014. It attracted a lot of first-time, young, tech-savvy consumers due to its inexpensive pricing, highly customizable smartphone, and fan-based marketing. It rejected brick and mortar retail stores, traditional distribution channels, and conventional advertising.

Instead, Xiaomi utilized a unique and innovative way to engage its consumers with its “geeky” brand positioning. It leveraged online user communities, social media, flash sales, and online-to-offline (O2O) events which hyped consumer expectations.

The company ensured customer satisfaction by incorporating user feedback to make frequent software and features updates. As a result, Xiaomi created a sticky fan base, known as “Mi-fans.”

However, it didn’t take long before Xiaomi’s sales began to slow down. Its sales dropped by 5 percent in Q1 of 2016 and 38 percent in Q2 of the same year.

It also fell out of the global top 5 brands in terms of smartphone sales. So what exactly happened?

Reasons behind recent struggles
Xiaomi’s mission statement is to offer affordable smart devices so people can enjoy the benefits of technology and connectivity at a lower price.

However, Xiaomi’s core initial customers now have a desire for more premium products. Despite clear evidence that Chinese customers are willing to trade up, the company continues to focus on the budget end of the market.

Photo credit: Maurizio Pesce.

Xiaomi has also been focused on its young, tech-savvy consumers, marketing heavily through social media and online word-of-mouth. Consequently, its marketing efforts do not reach beyond its core fan base.

In addition, the majority of its customers are not devout Mi-fans. They buy its products based on their value without really embracing Xiaomi’s ecosystem. The company’s limited content has also failed to make return customers.

Chinese consumers have a broad range of brands to choose from and flock to whomever can offer them better value for money. Xiaomi has only had a few smartphone models on shelves for a very long time, which gives direct Chinese competitors like Oppo, Vivo, and Huawei room to steal the show.

To add to this, customers are increasingly frustrated by the company’s flash sales, hunger marketing tactics, and its inability to innovate independently. Its consistent mimicking of Apple’s image has become proof of its lack of innovation.

While Xiaomi has stuck to its non-traditional techniques, other Chinese competitors have leveraged traditional strategies to full effect. These competitors have offered better product features, stronger offline marketing, and a wider distribution channel. This allows them to grab a larger share of the Chinese consumer’s wallet.

Essentially, Xiaomi has been too slow to match its products with the fast-changing value propositions of young Chinese consumers, who aspire for a more individualistic and personalized lifestyle.

While Xiaomi has continued to expand its product portfolio, the brand has failed to maintain its hype and has become overly diversified. General consumers have begun to lose track of what the company stands for and the benefits of joining their ecosystem.

With the company’s recent expansion to emerging markets comes a new set of problems. Factors such as supply constraints, limited local market understanding, and legal issues have hampered their efforts overseas.

What did other Chinese players do?
Local competitors like Huawei, Vivo, and Oppo are focused on establishing premium brands. For example, Vivo focuses on high-end devices with leading technologies such as high resolution phones, fingerprint readers, and extra software features. The same can be said of Huawei, but more in the mid-end products range.

As Chinese consumers begin to trade up, these competitors are much better equipped to capture the market.

Xiaomi has traditionally sold its devices online to bypass costs of offline marketing, retail stores, and dealerships. In comparison, rivals such as Vivo and Oppo have heavily invested in traditional retail and distribution channels and expanded their dealership network.

These competitors have also managed to offer more effective and differentiated marketing. This includes product placement, out-of-home advertisement, brand ambassadors, and sponsorships for popular TV shows. For example, Oppo is the official phone partner of America’s Next Top Model.

Xiaomi is left in the unenviable position of trying to reestablish relevance amidst a highly competitive market.

Implications to Xiaomi and beyond
Xiaomi’s customer-centric, crowd-sourcing, community-driven approach and its founder’s mindset was once very well received among Chinese startups and even multinational companies. However, the initial hype seems to have faded, replaced by questions of the company’s value and long-term sustainability.

In a way, Xiaomi’s story demonstrates the speed, complexity, and dynamism of the Chinese context. The changing consumer landscape, hyper-intensive competition, and rapid technology development require companies to be alert at all times and to create sustainable competitive advantages.

Xiaomi needs to re-examine its strategy with a flexible mindset in order to avoid further market decline or even death.

With this story, many questions arise. Does this ecosystem approach work for every company? Could every industry take a lifestyle-driven, customer-centric business approach? How do you build a sustainable business in the new economy?

It is time for brands with Xiaomi-esque tactics to re-evaluate the sustainability of their consumer engagement approaches. ( Editing by Jaclyn Teng)

Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Co., a global strategy and management consulting company, and the author of “China’s Disruptors” (Portfolio, 2015).