FT中文网 | 国际大趋势对企业领导者的启示

文 | 谢祖墀

总结2018年,展望2019,国际局势有什么重要的趋势,对企业领导者的启示是什么?高风CEO谢祖墀博士为FT中文网撰稿,分析了国际大趋势对企业领导者的启示。

1. 单边主义和保护主义抬头与多边主义和全球化所引成的张力。

过去二十多年来,全球化和多边主义为全球的主要趋势,全球各国在全球化的浪潮中合作互补,在经济、政治、文化等各方面都取得了极大的进展,经济方面尤为显著。然而,2018年来,以特朗普执政的美国政府牵动的单边主义和保护主义抬头,跟一直以来全球奉行的多边主义、全球化背道而驰。这两者之间的矛盾造成了很大的张力。

2. 原有价值观被逐渐颠覆。

全球化以来,各国人民的意识形态逐步交融并演化出了三种主流的价值观。第一,全球化。正如美国记者汤马斯•弗里曼(Thomas Friedman)所说,“世界是平的”。世界各国重新分工,相互协作,优势互补,大大提升整体效益,让大多数参与者都能受益。当然,有些簇群(cluster)会受益较多,另一些利益却受到某程度的损害。第二,全球治理。虽然各国间存在差异,但依然有很多超越国界的问题(如安全、环境、资源、扶贫等),需要大家共同努力去解决,尽管不是所有问题都能妥善处理,但全球各国普遍都愿意参与。第三,和平共处。尽管各国在思想状态、意识形态方面有所不同,但除了某些区域性战争动乱和某些恐怖组织出现之外,不同国家基本可以和平共处。

3. 互联网的全球化与地区化在同时进行。

全球化:技术是具有普适性的。互联网让全球信息交流更加畅通,减少了地理地域的限制。美国学者莫伊塞斯•纳伊姆(Moisés Naím)在他于2013年发表的《权力的终结》(The End of Power)一书中预言在全球化背景中出现的互联网的兴起将会驱使权力从原来的拥有者手中下放到一般老百姓之中。

不过,在与全球化交替之际,互联网也在向另一方向——地区化进行发展。因不同地区在互联网法规上的不同,产生了不同地域性的特色,因而衍生出了不同的商业模式。基于互联网的数据隐私就是一个鲜明的例子:在不同国家和地区的政策法规下,数据隐私问题被区别对待。在欧美等西方国家,互联网用户的数据隐私是被严格监管的;而在中国这却不是一个主要问题(起码目前还不是),相反地,人们正享受着海量大数据和精准定位所带来的便利。

4. 新科技带来的新型商业应用已到临界点。

新技术(如人工智能、物联网、区块链、5G等)进入不同商业应用的临界点,新一轮的商业模式将会出现,新的发展曲线将在原有发展曲线的末端中出现。不少新兴的科技企业有着行业领先的技术与海量的数据和资源,然而,如何拥有可持续发展的模式却是不少企业一直以来思考的问题,新的模式正在被探索和开发。

5. 中国经济不均衡发展依然突出。

在不同因素的影响下,今年以来,中国经济的波动性已经提高,且不均衡发展。不少问题较为明显。新技术驱动下互联网曾一度成为中国经济的热潮,电商、社交媒体等行业也因此得以较高速地发展。然而,在一些实体经济领域和某些地理区域中,诸多之前未曾暴露的问题却在逐步凸显。在核心科技领域,今年第二季度的芯片风波就曾是一大信号。

6 . 双创面临重新被激发的需要。

创新创业在过去十年快速发展之后,开始进入调整期。一些所谓创新的打法,如共享单车、新零售等后来大幅度的成效不彰。同时,市场反应初创公司的估值往往极高,不禁令人发问,一个类似2002年的科网股的泡沫是否正在形成?创新创业者和投资者都需要反思,双创需要再次被合理地激发。

以往许多的信条和框架都已经面临巨大的挑战,如全球一体化、多边主义、人类命运共同发展等。世界秩序正在被重塑,但不确定因素却不断涌现。企业家在此环境中需要做好什么?

1. 坚持正确的理念。做好自己应做的事
尽管全球的政治、经济局势变幻莫测,不少负能量充斥于我们之间,但我认为无论我们所处的环境和世界如何,企业和个人应该始终站在正义的一方,坚持正确的理念和价值观,做对自己、对他人、对社会都有意义的事情。开放的阳光最终必定超越围堵的北风。

2. 带领企业建立强大的意识(Consciousness)
企业和人一样,都具有意识,企业和人的行为被其所拥有的意识所支配。在绝大多数情况下,企业和人的意识都是由潜意识所支配的,而潜意识却会在不知不觉中将企业和人带入并非正确的道路。企业领导者的责任就是带领企业培养清晰的显意识,时刻在清晰的意识中做事情,知道自己在做什么,不能人云亦云,被潜意识拉着走。

3. 培养多维度看问题的能力,广泛涉猎各领域知识
看问题不能单方面只从自己以往的认知来解读,必须要从多方面,多维度来判断,对未来做出很清晰的判断。多读哲学,历史(特别世界历史),地理和文化,对世界的问题尽可能全面地了解,不以偏概全。我们知道许多西方国家对中国不够了解和怀有偏见;但我们亦应多从对方的角度来理解他们的观点。

4. 做好防冬的准备之余,仍不忘发展
2018年来,资本市场动荡起伏,一些所谓的新兴行业也经历了大洗牌。正如不少人所说,“冬天即将来临”。虽然并非全部,但至少在某些领域里,冬天可能真的要来临。企业需要做好过冬的防备,但我认为发展依然得继续,只不过对某些领域的一些企业来说,它们的发展模式和经济高速增长时期会有所不同。

5. 创新仍是最关键的任务
当今时代下,全球商业环境瞬息万变,但无论外部环境如何变化,企业最主要的发展动力是创新,企业必须坚持创新,以创新、以技术不断赋能、提升自己。

“祸兮,福之所倚;福兮,祸之所伏。孰知其极?其无正也。”正如中国国家主席习近平所说的,今年是惊涛骇浪的一年。从现在看来,2019年好像不太乐观,但它亦可能是新一轮发展的开始。所有世事都有二元力量同时存在,领导者必须在二元力量之间不断动态调整,管理企业亦需如是。

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(注:本文图片均来自网络)

关于作者:
谢祖墀博士(Dr. Edward Tse)是高风咨询公司的创始人兼CEO。他是中国管理咨询行业最早的从业者之一,在过去20年中,他曾带领两大国际管理咨询公司在大中华区的业务。他为包括国内外的数百家企业提供过咨询服务,涉及在华商业的各个层面,以及中国在世界的角色。他曾为中国政府提供过战略、国有企业改革以及中国企业走出国门的建议。他被称为“中国于国际上最富经验和具权威的商业战略专家”。他已撰写过数百篇文章以及四本书籍,其中包括屡获殊荣的《中国战略》(The China Strategy,2010年)和《创业家精神》(China’s Disruptors,2015年)。

 

Quote of Today ( January 29th)

All organizations consist of opposite forces. When there is black, there is also white. Same for yin and yang. And structure and chaos. But each of these forces won’t be able to manifest itself without the other. No one knows what black is without knowing what white is. And vice versa. Ultimately, what’s apparently opposite is actually one of the same. Or the Oneness. The job of the leader of any organization is to help the people to see through the illusion of the duality and get to the real core of the non-duality or the oneness. When an organization gets the notion of oneness, it’s consciousness will manifest and it will know what, how and how fast to navigate in the most natural way.

China Daily | Nation to Step Closer to Prosperity Goal

China Daily 2019-01-07

Target in sight as global economy faces key challenge

With global stock markets ending last year in turmoil, the economic outlook for 2019 remains uncertain.

But for China, this year is one of the final steppingstones to becoming a “moderately prosperous society” by 2020 in time for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China the following year.

The challenge for the global economy, however, is to avoid a recession. There are fears that the often weak but nonetheless sustained recovery from the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis has now run its course and a correction is inevitable.

There are a number of risks on the horizon, not least trade tensions between the United States and China, which have yet to be resolved.

There are also concerns about Europe, with the possibility of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union in March without agreeing to an exit deal, and fears that Italian banks will create a systemic crisis for the euro.

On a more positive note, this year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, and the country will host the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in April.

At this event, the Belt and Road Initiative, which has huge potential to drive economic growth, will take greater shape.

The government made its economic agenda clear at the Central Economic Work Conference, attended by the country’s leaders in Beijing in December.

The agenda includes tax cuts as part of a more proactive fiscal policy; boosting advanced manufacturing; tackling so-called zombie enterprises; raising domestic consumption; rural revitalization; capital market reform; fostering a healthy property market; further opening-up the economy and allowing greater market access to foreign companies.

Great attention will continue to be paid to China’s growth performance this year. Growth was 6.5 percent in the third quarter of last year, in line with the target set in the Government Work Report in March.

It needs to average about 6.3 percent this year and next to meet the target of doubling 2010 GDP by the end of 2020.

Song Yu, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs in Beijing, said the government will want to carefully manage the economy to meet this target.

“This will be of critical importance this year. The government will not tolerate a sharp slowdown in the economy, although there might be some flexibility for a growth target of less than 6.5 percent,” he said.

“One of the priorities also will be maintaining employment stability, especially making sure college graduates, migrant workers and former members of the armed forces get jobs.”

Edward Tse, founder and chairman of Gao Feng Advisory, a management consultancy, said stability will be key for the government.

“The economy may slow a bit, but not a whole lot. The government has a number of levers it can pull to ensure stability,” he said.

“Part of the problem for China is that it is entwined in the global economy and at the center of global supply chains that might be affected by increased trade protectionism.”

Xiong Yuan, chief analyst at Guosheng Securities, a research company, also believes achieving overall stability will be the government’s main aim, with growth of more than 6.2 percent likely.

“China’s economy will face a number of challenges, particularly from external factors, so stability will be the main priority,” he said.

Trump rumors
Wang Qing, chief economist at Golden Credit Rating International in Beijing, predicted the government will set an annual growth target of 6 to 6.5 percent in its next work report in March.

He said last month’s Central Economic Work Conference pointed the way to major tax cuts of about 1.5 trillion yuan ($218 billion).

“These tax cuts will encourage enterprises to invest more and, more important, encourage greater private investment and consumption,” he said.

How the global economy fares this year may hinge on what happens in the U.S..

Some of the stock market turbulence at the end of last year arose from rumors that U.S. President Donald Trump was about to fire Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

Trump has been openly critical of the Fed’s monetary tightening, with four interest rate rises announced last year.

Some observers expect U.S. growth, which hit 4.2 percent in the middle of last year, to slow this year as the boost delivered by Trump’s tax cuts begins to wear off.

Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman and founder of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a consultancy in London, said the apparent row over interest rate policy is at odds with reality.

“Whatever Trump’s intervention, the Fed is not actually going to put up interest rates. If you analyze the situation, now is not the time to put them up,” he said.

If there is no reversal, the expansionary phase of the U.S. economy will be the longest ever by July, according to records that were first kept in 1854. It would exceed the 120-month expansion between March 1991 and March 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research in the U.S..

George Magnus, an associate of the University of Oxford China Centre, said the “extreme longevity” of this upward swing in the business cycle is not sufficient in itself to predict an imminent recession, but it is becoming harder to sustain.

“It is not just the U.S.. Most of the Western world touched bottom in 2009. This long recovery needs continuous energizing to sustain it. It is like riding your bike into a wind uphill-you need to put in that extra effort in order not to stall. You don’t need much of a shock to knock you off balance,” he said.

One of the risks that could affect the global economy is increasing protectionism and, in particular, the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

There were signs of a more constructive relationship between the two countries as last year drew to a close.

President Xi Jinping and Trump discussed trade in a telephone conversation on Dec 29.

Both stressed the progress made in the trade talks while voicing hope for further results that can bring benefits to both sides and the world.

Tse, at Gao Feng Advisory, is optimistic that the dispute will be resolved early this year.

“There is something like a 50 percent possibility that it will be pretty well handled and the crux of the issue will be largely solved. Some of the underlying issues between China and the U.S. will continue to be around for some time,” he said.

Zeng Kanghua, a public finance professor with the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, said China’s economy would remain “resilient” even without a resolution to the trade dispute.

“The economy will still be able to expand at a reasonable rate above 6 percent, given that there are a number of strategic development opportunities. With a resolution, the growth outlook will be better and likely to be in line with last year’s,” he said.

The other risk this year stems from Brexit and the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a negotiated deal on March 29, the date on which it is due to exit.

Most commentators believe that while this could disrupt the UK economy and UK-EU trade, it is unlikely to destabilize the global economy.

Magnus, author of Red Flags, a new book about the Chinese economy, said: “The good news is that we don’t have to wait much longer now for some kind of resolution. The clock is ticking. Proper grown-up decisions will become unavoidable in the next few weeks.”

If there is a global recession this year, few observers expect it to be anything like the same scale as the global financial crisis a decade ago.

Jing Ulrich, managing director and vice-chairman of JPMorgan Chase’s Asia Pacific operations, said banks have learned their lesson from the devastation of 10 years ago.

She said global banks have never been better positioned from a solvency and liquidity perspective going into the next potential recession, and the probability of a systemically important bank failing has declined.

Ulrich said the Financial Stability Board, set up at the G20 summit in London in 2009 in the aftermath of the previous crisis to monitor the global financial system, has been particularly effective.

“All of these new frameworks and institutions are here to stay, and will continue to be the guardians of global economic stability,” she said.

For many developing countries in particular, a major growth engine will continue to be China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which according to JPMorgan Chase has the potential to boost global trade by $2.5 trillion over the longer term.

Jiang Hao, a partner at management consultancy Roland Berger in Shanghai, said the initiative can relieve infrastructure bottlenecks that are barriers to economic development in many countries.

“The BRI has a very positive impact on the economic development of those developing countries, which in turn will contribute to global economic growth and stability,” he said.

“It encourages more countries to participate in the global supply chain and improve each nation’s domestic consumption, which allows all those countries to contribute to the prosperity of the global economy.”

David Morris, chair of the United Nations Asia Pacific Business Forum, said 2019 could be the year to build on the initiative’s success.

“It has been widely welcomed as a platform for building new capabilities across the developing world for trade. Lessons are being learned from the first five years and there are good opportunities for more multistakeholder partnerships to reduce investment risks, with greater transparency and openness to build trust,” he said.

Former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani, author of Has The West Lost It?, agrees the initiative could be a game changer this year.

“It is deploying significant material and human resources to help other countries build and develop their infrastructures. New roads and bridges, railways and electricity grids will emerge,” he said.

This year is also likely to pave the way for a number of technological advances. China is expected to roll out 5G, the next generation of wireless technology, next year, which could have major implications for advanced manufacturing and the internet of things. The country is expected to be the biggest market for 5G by 2025, according to the GSM Association, the mobile communication operators’ trade body.

Zeng, from the Central University of Finance and Economics, said,”5G will inject growth momentum in a wide range of fields, including the production and sales of new smartphones, development of new software, as well as new business and consumption models.”

Tse, also author of China’s Disruptors, said that in addition to 5G, the country could be about to experience a new era of technological innovation.

“China has a lot of advantages, from its entrepreneurship, government support for innovation and the availability of capital. We are going to see a lot of new players that will emerge and take on the established companies,” he said.

Whatever the various outcomes, 2019 will be an important year for China as it marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC in October.

Mahbubani, also professor in the practice of public policy at the National University of Singapore, said it will be a year for China to reflect on its past and future direction.

 

Quote of Today (January 23rd)

We often say we do “projects.”  More appropriately, however, we should say we undertake “engagements.”  Projects signify a transaction. Engagements stand for symbiotic relationship that goes on.  It stands for mutual commitment.  And the relationship extends beyond the contractual duration.

Quote of Today (January 18th)

Consulting should be non-hierarchical, collegial, meritocratic and team-based. Consulting is best conducted through conversations in which both consultants and clients engage in seeking truths. A good consultant is one who can lead the team and client in the discovery process from ambiguity to clarity, from unknown to known, from little logic to logical, and from little consensus to alignment. And ultimately enlightened client and team.

新浪财经 | 好奇心激发中国创新

文 | 谢祖墀

本文摘自《亚布力观点》(2018年12月刊)谢祖墀博士的专栏文章。原文是谢博士在默克集团《2018年好奇心状态报告》(State of Curiosity Report 2018, Merck Group)上发表的文章。

是什么让中国从模仿者转变为富有好奇心的创新者

中国近40年来的改革开放给国家经济带来了深刻而巨大的变化与进步,对商业格局的影响尤为显著。在此过程中,尽管中国政府没有刻意设计,但中国已经形成了一种自己独有的发展模式,即某些人所称的“中国发展模式”。我则认为它更应准确地被称为“三级的二元结构”(Three-layeredDuality)。顶层的中央政府积极地调整国家的发展方向,在资源调配方面发挥积极的作用;在社会中主要来自于私营经济的创新创业的蓬勃发展成为推动经济增长的重要力量;另一方面,地方政府之间常有竞争,同时,区域内城市群内亦有不少的合作。这种三级发展模式已经成为推动中国经济增长的主要韧性的来源,而且仍然持续发展。国有经济和私营经济的共存使得它们时而竞争,时而协同。这是中国经济的一大特征。

这种独特的经济运行模式得以让以好奇心为驱动的商业创新在过往十年内呈现出指数级的增长,尤其是来自私营经济的部分。全球领先的德国科技公司默克公司(Merck)2018 年的“好奇心状态”调查反映了商业创新的兴起:该调查使用一个多维模型,在几个国家中衡量其好奇心和创新程度。该调查显示,创新在中国的商业文化中发挥了极其重要的作用,远高于美国和德国。凭借商业创新的涌现,中国逐渐摆脱了其在过去的“山寨”标签,成为了以技术驱动商业创新的中心。据新华社报道,互联网和科技行业技术企业(包括AI、大数据、物联网、机器人等)带来的增速在过去十年中是中国GDP 增速的两倍。中国每一代企业家都有着不同的特点,他们在中国——目前世界上第二大独角兽公司(成立10年内,估值10 亿美元以上的未上市创业公司)的诞生地蓬勃发展。

是什么让中国从模仿者转变为富有好奇心的创新者?

首先,这源于中国人经常怀着的“为什么不是我?”的心态。特别是在改革开放初期,许多刚下海的中国企业家逐渐意识到中国与世界其他国家之间存在的巨大差距,并努力尝试去向世界展示他们也能取得成功。

其次,随着进步的改革开放,曾经一度被隐藏的社会痛点开始逐步暴露。高新技术的普及,特别是智能设备与无线互联网的商业化,为创新提供了驱动基础。

再次,私营企业与创业公司通常可以迅速地抓住机遇并迎接挑战,同时他们具有应变能力,相比之下国有企业的反应通常较慢。

再次,庞大的中国市场使公司得以迅速地扩大规模,激烈的竞争促使公司加快创新,以在竞争中保持领先地位。

最后,大数目的风险投资资金也使中国的创业公司获益匪浅;反过来,风险投资者们也从在中国的投资中获得丰厚的利益回报。

无论投资者来自中国还是海外,中国的创业公司,尤其是科技公司,通常借鉴美国硅谷的公司的组织模式,并在发展过程中逐步形成自己独特的模式。领导者们经常与团队一起工作,以更容易地捕捉市场中的变化并快速做出决策。不少这些领导者(通常是创始人同时亦管理者)都具有强大的意志且富有远见,这是中国企业组织和文化的共同特征。这些公司的组织架构,特别是在早期阶段,往往比传统企业更扁平化,从而可以有效地应对外部不断变化的商业环境。

这些公司一般在顶层拥有强大的领导者之余,在组织内部也经常有较大的授权。这可能听起来有点矛盾,然而,组织的好奇心往往以深刻的方式表现在创业阶段的科技公司中。为了评估组织的好奇心指数,默克公司定义了以下几个关键因素。

第一是“对他人观点的开放程度”:中国科技公司,特别是初创企业,相对开放的组织结构使团队成员之间的沟通更加开放和高效。

第二是“对压力的容忍”:中国迅速发展的颠覆性经济中存在很多的模糊和不确定性。企业家必须愿意尝试,并接受这一过程中的压力。

第三是“对快乐的探索”:过去十年中不断提升的经济和生活条件造成了人们对“未来会更好”的期望。他们愿意探索更加美好和快乐的生活。

中国正在大力拥抱人工智能、物联网、区块链,以及即将到来的5G 通讯技术,以实现下一轮的创新

最后是“对于差距的敏感性”:企业家精神使人们对差距更加敏感。一旦意识到差距的存在,中国企业家便会对此好奇,并坚定地付诸行动以缩小差距。

这些特质使得中国企业具有高度的适应性,能够很容易地接受并采用新兴的技术。而中国整体正处于正在萌芽的第四次工业革命(包括融合物理,数字和生物世界的一系列技术)的前沿。同时,中国正在大力拥抱人工智能、物联网、区块链,以及即将到来的5G 通讯技术,以实现下一轮的创新。

展望未来,我们期待中国出现更多由组织好奇心所激发、技术驱动的商业创新。尽管每种创新成功的难度仍然很高,但以中国快速增长的市场规模、日益普及的各项技术,以及“中国发展模式”的支撑,中国在未来创新角逐中领先的胜算依然不低。尽管中国走向创新型经济的道路将不可避免地存在起伏,甚至可能在某些领域上有点动荡,并浪费一些资源,中国政府将一贯致力于改善其人民的生活水平,并期望能够建立一个人类命运共同体。归根结底,这种理念的最基本驱动力是组织内在的好奇心。

原文发表于《亚布力观点》(2018年12月刊)并保留所有权利

(注:本文图片均来自网络)

关于作者:
谢祖墀博士(Dr. Edward Tse)是高风咨询公司的创始人兼CEO。他是中国管理咨询行业的先锋,在过去20年中,他曾带领两大国际管理咨询公司在大中华区的业务。他为包括国内外的数百家企业提供过咨询服务,涉及在华商业的各个层面,以及中国在世界的角色。他曾为中国政府提供过战略、国有企业改革以及中国企业走出国门的建议。他被称为“中国于国际上最富经验和具权威的商业战略专家”。他已撰写过数百篇文章以及四本书籍,其中包括屡获殊荣的《中国战略》(The China Strategy,2010年)和《创业家精神》(China’s Disruptors,2015年)。

 

Quote of Today (January 17th)

Consulting is a marathon not a hundred meter dash. So consultants should pace themselves. Don’t kill yourself by keeping on dashing. Take time and relax. Sometimes get totally out of the rat race for a while. You will see your mind would work better that way. Also your health.