【Quote of Today】September 26th

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From fringe to core and from core to fringe. A simple but powerful concept that was built on the Multiple Jumping strategy framework. We introduced this concept in 2014. New innovative ideas often begin at the fringe of a company’s business. When it grows, it often would move into the core of the company and become the mainstream. In some cases, companies would reinvent its original core business to make it great again. At some other times, however, the importance of the original core will diminish and eventually become a fringe business. This can be an ongoing cycle that goes back and forth for many times. And therefore at heart it’s dynamic strategy with duality as its nature.

谢祖墀:如何应对“无人区”

游戏的边界是在机会与能力之间的比较和抉择。新的机会往往以曲线形式出现,而能力也不只是过去或今天的能力,它应该是企业在极小的时空里能够通过自身和生态体系打造的综合能力

在上世纪90年代初期回国之后,我就发现一个非常独特的现象:当外资跨国企业聘请我去帮他们研究如何进入中国市场之际,不少中国的企业,特别是民营企业,却不断来问我究竟如何能够学习欧美企业的经营管理之道。成功的欧美企业是如何成功的?为什么?中国企业家们不断询问他们如何能够学习到外资跨国企业成功的秘诀。他们往往会提出希望学习的对象。在科技领域,摩托罗拉,诺基亚往往是对标的对象。在快消领域是宝洁、联合利华或可口可乐是对标的对象。在电信方面是思科、爱立信或北电是对标的对象。对标(benchmarking)是许多中国企业要求我们替他们做的工作。

这段时期一直持续到了2000年代初期,甚至到中期还有一部分继续存在。许多人说中国企业喜欢抄袭,是copycat,但我觉得至少最优秀的企业家并非是抄袭,他们更多是在观察和学习,并从中吸收教训或精华。在这点上,反而在众多我的跨国客户中,包括大型企业总部的CEO,并不常见。可能他们以为自己已经很有见识了,不用再去学习,特别在诸如中国这样的“发展中国家市场”(emerging countries market),根本没有什么值得去学。

但从踏入移动互联网时代(大约2007年开始),中国企业特别是互联网企业,在创新方面经历了史无前例的高速发展,创造了不少非常成功的以创新为主的企业。这些企业不少在最开始的时候是以模仿美国某些商业模式为起点的,但它们往往在短时期内就会演变出新的独特的商业模式。快速和灵活的迭代变成了这一代企业的主要特性。与此同时,他们亦逐渐发现在过去他们还可以对标其他(特别是西方的)企业,但今天他们已经进入了全新的境界,往往是以前无人到达过的地方,亦可以说是已经到达一个“无人区”。

这种现象不只存在于互联网企业中,不少“传统企业”亦面临同样的窘境。传统企业同样面对科技的崛起、消费者需求的变化,创新的必然性要求它们并需要进行改革、变化。他们逐渐亦发觉已经没有了什么“对标”企业可言。到了无人区,该怎么办?

 

最近我在YouTube看了软银主席孙正义的一个演讲,他的主题是“投资与未来”。他列举了许多例子,从历史的角度说明了人类社会巨大的发展往往是基于某段时间技术的突破。他以汽车行业为例,在1900年之后的13年间,汽车的普及以指数式增加,是因为亨利·福特(Henry Ford)发明了标准的汽车制造工序。

孙正义同时指出,从最早的1995年到2018年,互联网网络的流量增加了100万倍,而在这23年来,全球互联网公司的市场价值(市值)也完全成比例的同等暴增。这足以证明,过去这二三十年来,互联网是最大的投资趋势和发展方向。今天,2019年全球市值排名前十的的公司中有七家是互联网公司:微软、亚马逊、苹果、谷歌、脸书、阿里巴巴、腾讯。孙正义预测30年后,世界市值排名前十大的公司里,一定有大量的人工智能(AI)公司。未来将会是人工智能的未来。处理器的运算能力、记忆体的储存能力、互联网的传输能力,在这30年来,都成长了一百万倍,再过30年,将会再成长一百多万倍。也就是说再过30年,AI将比现在再聪明一百万倍。AI最强的能力其实是预测,将AI用在预测领域,前景非常好,AI就是未来精准预测重要的工具。

而在机器人的应用方面,孙正义指出机器人的数量不止会增长及其中的 AI应用也会随之大幅增长,机器人并不一定就长得像个“机器人”,它可以以不同的形态为人类提供全方位的服务。孙正义提出未来你去麦当劳,都将是机器人点餐,而且这些机器人都是高度智能的,他们会对你的行为进行精准预测,当你走进这家店时,他可以使用“大数据”分析出你需要什么。

另一个趋势会是物联网(IoT,Internet of Things)。在未来世界,一切东西都是IoT,都是彼此相互连通、相互关联的,处理效率将会更高、更快速。在未来,不止是人和物品的沟通,物品和物品间也会相互沟通。据孙正义预测,物联网市场的规模将在2035年比现在大1亿倍。

《人类简史》的作者、著名历史学家赫拉利 (Yual Noah Harari) 指出影响人类未来发展的两大趋势是AI和生物科技。我们将会进入自从智人出现之后首次这种物种在生理上因科技而有所改变,即物种的变异。人类不只在寿命上有所延伸,在基本能力上亦会蜕变。

2014年我提出了第三条路的战略思想,即连续跳跃的跨越战略理论(图一),提出了在传统的定位论之外,在快速变化、指数增长的时代,企业不能固步自封,以过去的核心竞争力作为自己的枷锁,限制了自己的发展空间。但企业也不能漫无目的的乱跳,无序地去参与与其缺乏协同效应的业务。变成一堆没有内在逻辑的多元业务。游戏并非是有限的,但亦非无限的。

游戏的边界是在机会与能力之间的比较和抉择。新的机会往往以曲线形式出现,而能力亦非只是过去或今天的能力,它应该是企业在极小的时空里能够通过自身和生态体系打造的综合能力。那么“机会”是什么?当然,机会是具体的业务,不只是泛泛而谈的概念,也不应该只是一连串的无序“点子”。成功的战略跨越者必定是擅长洞察和掌握到未来发展的趋势带来的机遇。因此,他们无时无刻都在思考未来会是什么样子的。what is the vision of the future? 未来的场景将会带来什么巨大的改变和机遇?

奉行第三条路的战略家不是投资于“点子”,而是投资于趋势。这就是孙正义所讲的核心意义。当你的企业已经进入了无人区,已经没有其他企业可以对目标时,你的对标对象就是未来。而未来是非线性、多维和模糊不清的。如何在不确定状态中做出正确大胆的抉择(making the right and big bet),这才是无人区时代所需要的领导能力。

未来就在当下。

本文发表于《亚布力观点》(2019年9月刊)并保留所有权利

作者简介
谢祖墀 (Dr. Edward Tse) 是高风咨询公司的创始人兼CEO。同时他也是香港国际金融学会创会理事。谢博士是中国管理咨询行业最早的从业者之一,在过去20年中,他曾带领两大国际管理咨询公司在大中华区的业务。他为包括国内外的数百家企业提供过咨询服务,涉及在华商业的各个层面,以及中国在世界的角色。他曾为中国政府提供过战略、国有企业改革以及中国企业走出国门的建议。他已撰写数百篇文章以及四本书籍,其中包括屡获殊荣的《中国战略》(The China Strategy,2010年)和《创业家精神》(China’s Disruptors,2015年)。

 

【今日语录】 9月23日

What is your Right-to-Win? 你凭什么赢?这是所有企业在考虑战略问题时必须回答的问题。你凭什么赢是靠你的与众不同和能足够防御竞争的一套能力(a set of differentiated and defensible capabilities). 这些能力可以自生亦可从生态伙伴中提取,但必须符合上述两个条件。许多企业或其咨询顾问缺乏严谨考量,没法将 Right-to-Win 正确地定义,以致战略无效。

 

【今日语录】9月20日

企业战略里的一个核心问的问题是:”你凭什么赢?” (What is your Right-to-Win?” 即是你有什么独特的能力是比你的竞争对手更强的?㫫然,这是核心竞争力理论的延伸。在西方,特别在美国,企业领导者往往会从过去式来判断他们的能力在那里。在今天快速变化的时代裡,这当然是不足够的。关键不是你目前能力如何,而是你能在有限时空内通过什么方法来建立你的独特竞争优势。熟悉吗?这就是”战略第三条路” 的核心理念。What is your Right-to-Win?

 

Nikkei Asian Review | Debunking Myths on Chinese SOEs

Edward Tse

Debunking Myths on Chinese SOEs

Original published by Nikkei Asian Review titled “Chinese SOEs are Focused on Business, Not Politics” on September 13, 2019. All rights reserved.

In the eyes of some politicians and media in the West, Chinese state-owned enterprises are little more than corporate vehicles for carrying out Beijing’s policy agenda. This perspective has led to calls to restrict SOEs’ investments and acquisition of other companies and technologies.

This is a shortsighted view. Although I am from Hong Kong, not mainland China, and am not a member of the Communist Party, I have served at different times as an independent board director at four Chinese SOEs since 2006: Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), the holding company of carmaker SAIC Motor, and currently, China Travel Service (Holdings) Hong Kong.

In inviting someone like me to join their board, these companies sought an external perspective to help ensure proper governance. At no point before or during any board meeting was I ever asked to vote a certain way. No one tried to interfere with my professional judgment on what would be good for the companies.

In all these years of board meetings, I cannot recall any discussion that centered on serving a certain political agenda. Rather, the discussions were inevitably about business. Just as with a large Western company, the talk was of revenue, profit, market share, cash flow and returns on investment and how to improve them.

Of course, government policy would at times be a matter for discussion. Beijing has for some years been pushing through a consolidation of the steel sector, for example, so that inevitably surfaced in deliberations when I was a director at Baosteel.

It is also important to note that Chinese SOEs are far from uniform in their governance or outlook. For companies involved in sectors that touch on national security, discussions about the government’s agenda would be much more natural than in consumer-focused sectors like travel and autos.

Other SOEs are tasked with providing public services, such as infrastructure, health care and education. Notably, their evaluation of projects is generally based more around addressing utility for the public than a simple internal rate of return.

In open sectors like retail, consumer goods or pharmaceuticals, however, Chinese SOEs have to survive in perhaps the world’s most intensely competitive market.

Many of these SOEs feel they are falling behind their private-sector peers in innovation and are under pressure to catch up or collaborate with them. They are particularly concerned with whether they can continue to effectively compete as China opens up more sectors to private-sector participation, especially by foreign companies.

Even in sectors like banking and insurance where SOEs traditionally held unshakable positions, they are no longer immune to competition from the private sector. Consider how Alibaba Group Holding affiliate Alipay and Tencent Holdings’ WeChat Pay now dominate online payments. With a focus on adapting technology, Ping An Insurance Group has overtaken state-owned peers like China Life Insurance to become the country’s largest insurer.

 

Chinese SOEs do enjoy some advantages because they are owned by the state, but this is most true in sectors involving national security or public infrastructure, like energy and telecommunications. In such cases, the SOEs’ ownership of key assets and their protected operating franchises are somewhat comparable to those of public monopolies like water companies or postal services in Western countries.

A number of them, such as telecommunications infrastructure company China Tower, also benefit from having other SOEs as their main clients.

Local governments in China also tend to favor purchasing from SOEs based in their region as a means of supporting them as significant area employers and taxpayers. This can come into play, for example, with orders for official vehicle fleets.

Further, state companies have long had a significant advantage in getting access to bank credit from the SOE-dominated banking system but this has been changing.

According to Moody’s Investors Service, SOEs accounted for 52.6% of outstanding bank corporate lending as of Dec. 31 even though they have been generating less than 40% of overall output.

But after President Xi Jinping declared private enterprise to be an essential part of China’s economic system late last year, the country’s financial regulators pledged to widen access to credit and financial support for the nonstate sector.

These changes are taking time to implement, but policy is headed in the right direction and technology is helping to take the place of ownership in assessments of the creditworthiness of individuals and small businesses.

Chinese SOEs also carry social burdens much more often than private companies. As an SOE, Baosteel had to invest considerable time and effort to address the labor and community impact when it shut down older factories in urban areas to move to cheaper locations.

Until now, China’s parallel structure of SOEs and privately owned companies has largely worked well. As a whole, this duality has been a source of resilience for China, not a drag.

Yet officials in Beijing have identified reform of state-owned enterprises as an imperative. Of late, this effort has focused on diversifying the shareholding of many SOEs. This has included the introduction of private capital in some cases.

To make mixed ownership reform a success will require the establishment of proper corporate governance structures and principles. The role of the state agency that oversees SOEs will have to shift over time from direct control to being one among a number of shareholders. These changes will help SOEs to be able to compete effectively in China’s fast-changing and increasingly innovation-driven environment.

About the author:Dr. Edward Tse
CEO of Gao Feng Advisory
Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution for International Finance. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies, investors, start-ups, and public-sector organizations (both headquartered in and outside of China) on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version of 《创业家精神》).

 

【Quote of Today】 September 17th

The Resilient Organization. This organization is flexible enough to adapt quickly to external market shifts, yet it remains steadfastly focused on and aligned with a coherent business strategy. This forward-looking organization anticipates changes routinely and addresses them proactively. It attracts motivated team players and offers them not only a stimulating work environment, but also the resources and authority necessary to solve tough problems.

 

HSM | China’s Mega Platforms Organizations

Edward Tse

Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse’s article was published in his regular column on Brazil’s HSM Management Magazine. In this article, Dr. Tse wrote about China’s mega platforms companies. China’s innovations are not just about monetization. It’s an inspiration for new intellectual capital on how businesses generate their strategy and innovations. They enrich the world’s thought leadership.

 

English Version
China’s Mega Platforms Organizations

The most valuable Chinese companies today are typically “mega ecosystem” players which operate networks of businesses that can support each other and supplement each other’s capabilities. Internet giants, Alibaba and Tencent, arguably the most well-known companies in China, are now in the top ten of public companies by market capitalization.

The notion of a business ecosystem is not new. Apple, one the world’s most valuable companies, was a pioneer in this regard. Other leading U.S. tech companies such as Amazon and Alphabet are also ecosystem players. Chinese companies, however, have turned out to be even more adept at building such organizations.

Prime examples of mega ecosystems in China today include Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Building out from their original core businesses, they have jumped into a string of new sectors.

Alibaba started as a small business-to-business online marketplace almost 20 years ago and jumped in with consumer-to-consumer site Taobao and later business-to-consumer site Tmall. To support these businesses, Alibaba started Alipay to support mobile online payments and then used it as a platform to offer wealth management services.

Today, Alibaba’s has also branched into areas including “automobility”, “big health”, media, “new retail”, location services, cloud services, and smart logistics.

Xiaomi, the youngest Fortune 500 company, is a leading ecosystem players with a range of businesses in hardware, internet services and new retail. By partnering up with a hundred more start-ups since 2013, Xiaomi has been able to add many more products onto its In-ternet of Things (IoT) platform, without having to produce them in-house. Today, Xiaomi offers more than 300 lifestyle products and are connecting more than 170 million devices (excluding mobile phones and laptops).

Xiaomi’s smartphone business is becoming a smaller part of its business, while internet services are growing. To this end, it has added to its portfolio apps ranging from online games, eBooks, live streaming, music and videos, internet finance, cloud services and automotive social platforms. This allows them to monetize on ser-vices after selling low-priced hardware, which could drive a large part of revenue going forward.

With such a large range of products in its portfolio, Xiaomi has made the jump into new retail that aims at seamlessly interconnecting its online and offline channel. Over the years, Xiaomi has built interac-tions and close relationships with its supporters, affectionately called the “Mi-fans.”

Xiaomi’s founder and leader, Lei Jun, has said that the next strate-gic move would be building a smartphone + AIoT (AI and IoT) in anticipation of 5G technology. With this strategy, it is likely that Xiaomi would extend its ecosystem, and increase in the variety of Xiaomi applications.

When Chinese companies sense a market opening, they would quickly make the jump to capture the opportunities and try to make up the gaps in capabilities through ecosystems of collaborative part-nerships. In contrast, most foreign corporations tend to focus on what they have been doing all along and avoid “diversification”. Foreign companies operating in China have now increasingly recog-nized this difference and are catching up by learning from Chinese companies and participating into their ecosystems.

About the Author
Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution for International Finance. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies, investors, start-ups, and public-sector organizations (both headquartered in and outside of China) on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version «创业家精神»).