谢祖墀:疫情后将会出现的新机会

文 | 谢祖墀
2020年2月

正值中国新春来临之际,湖北武汉等地发生新冠肺炎疫情。新冠来势汹汹,没过几日便开始持续霸占了新闻各大头条。病情的发展牵动着中国以及全世界人民的心。

直至2月14日,至少有48个城市已经宣布了“封城”、限流等政策,大部分省市接连推出了延迟返工、延后开学等相关措施。疫情的迅速发展使线下商业活动停摆,各行各业都受到了极大的影响。于疫情期间,各类商品和服务的销量都在下降,其中零售、旅游和休闲等行业受到的影响最甚。此外,疫情也暴露出一些长期存在的社会问题。展望未来,面临着此次挑战,新的机会亦有可能伴随而生,而未来政府机构将更加关心如何完善中国的公共社会议程,而不再是仅仅聚焦于几个特定的垂直领域。

此次冠状病毒危机将在几个方面重塑中国。首先,中国的治理体系将变得更透明与负责。自改革开放以来,中国社会通过不断实践和调整逐渐发展出了一套独特的三层发展模式,使中国的经济持续发展。在顶层,中央政府负责制定国家的发展议程。而在基层,则是快速成长且充满活力的企业家们,尤其是民营企业家,他们是中国商业创新的主要推动者。而在中间的则是地方政府,在连接上下两层的同时,与彼此之间相互竞争或合作,以推助当地经济发展。

在过去的数十年中,这种发展模式尽管有它的一些问题,但总的来说却为中国创造了惊人的经济效益。但随着本次疫情的发展,我们也意识到了这种模式在面对除经济以外更宏观的问题上的短板。所以这个模式在未来必须有所调整,以确保公共议程能更合理推进。未来,中央及省、市、乡镇各级地方政府必须投入更多的精力和资源来强化公共议程的治理。同时,国有企业(SOEs)和私营企业(POEs)将更加紧密地合作,利用各自的优势创造价值。此次疫情中,在国企与民企的共同努力下,武汉的火神山和雷神山医院分别在10天和14天内竣工,着实是一个壮举。

其次,中国各个城市将向智能化与万物互联发展。长期以来,许多人批评中国所谓的“监控社会”,认为当局掌握了民众们过多的数据。然而,当武汉市长向大众宣布自己并不知晓离开武汉的500万人都去哪的时候,政府对民众的监控似乎还未达到大多数人的想象的程度。在未来,为了确保民众更全面的安全,政府应对人们的行动有更加智能和正面、合理的监管。

此外,中国社会的经济格局也在发生变化。消费正在从线下转向线上。同时,此次疫情加速了诸如5G,人工智能和物联网等新技术的商业化应用。

那么疫情过去之后,哪些趋势会带来潜在的商机?

1. 政府将在全国范围内加大投入,创造一个更安全、更健康的生活环境。

2. 在公共卫生领域,早发现、早预防、早诊断和更有效的治疗将成为关注的焦点,而更为全面的公共卫生管理体系也将得到良好的发展。

3.更多的公私合营模式(PPP):企业与政府部门之间的协作能够创建更多的解决方案,推动未来公共议程的发展。

4.物联网、人工智能、5G和区块链等颠覆性技术将持续推进高效连接的智能化社会的发展。

5. 数字化与大数据在公共管理方面的应用将被大幅提高。

6. 新的社会沟通方式将涌现。尽管人与人之间的沟通仍是主流,其他交互形式如人机交互、机间交互将在未来获得指数式的增长。

7. 在过去几十年中,中国的企业家精神和创新能力一直不断上升,这些仍将进一步加速解决在此次新型冠状病毒疫情危机期间暴露出的各类社会和商业痛点。

此次贸易战与新型冠状病毒疫情的爆发已较大程度地打击了中国的经济。在短期内,政府将会加大重大固定资产投资以促进经济发展。除此之外,中国政府亦将以举国之力建立一个可靠的公共卫生体系。近日,中央政府已经宣布将把生化安全纳入国家安全体系,并佐以立法等相关部门的支持。

这些公共项目将以公私合营(PPP)的形式催生更多的商业机会。民营企业将会与政府建立更深层次的合作以建立新一代的智慧城市及其相关基础建设,这将包括在交通运输管理、供应链管理、应急措施、灾难预警及各类信息追踪方面进行更为智能化的建设。举例来说,未来的智慧城市将在追踪个人行径的同时识别潜在的传染者(基于体温进行甄别)并向附近的医院发出预警来从根本上完善公共卫生体系。诸如这般复杂的工程需要政府、各类企业与医疗机构基于大数据的高效合作才能实施与完成。

在疫情过去之后,新的商业模式将随着交互模式的变化而产生,尤其是在大健康、物流、自动化、线上办公、娱乐、零售、教育和社交媒体等领域将会因此得到新的发展。

在物流和机器人领域,人机交互和机对机交互将加速。例如,武汉新落成的火神山医院已经在使用自动化机器人运送食物和药物、对环境进行消毒并帮助医生进行基本的诊断分析。自动化和机器人技术将在未来变得越来越普遍,并逐渐取代大部分的运输模式。

此外,传统的以线下驱动的商业将开始向线上进行转移,这其中包括大健康、零售和教育等行业。在大健康领域,新兴的技术将使更多的服务可以远程实现。除了更有效的诊断和治疗外,未来医疗的重点将更多地放在疾病的预防和早期发现上。

线上工作的方式变得越来越普遍。因为本次疫情,很大一部分上班族首次尝试了远程工作。企业微信、钉钉和其他远程工作工具成为受益者。这一趋势可能可以得到延续,我们今后的工作、沟通方式亦将会有所改变。

在线娱乐亦在不断发展。电影《囧妈》在线上首映,新的盈利模式取代了传统的线下影院盈利模式。此次疫情推助了线上线下融合(OMO,“Online-Merged-Offline”)模式的发展,亦被应用在许多其他行业,如零售和教育领域等等。

此外,社交媒体在我们社会中扮演的角色亦将会演变。长期以来,社交媒体是C2C和B2C模式沟通的桥梁。然而,正如这场危机所表明的那样,它应承担一种新的角色:民众与政府之间的沟通渠道(G2C和C2G)。社交媒体是政府传播信息并非正式地建立问责制反馈回路的有效方式。

这次疫情暴露了中国的不少问题,但亦带来了一些新的机遇。在短期内,从制造业、供应链和消费者需求的角度来看,这场疫情将为在中国运营以及与中国企业有合作关系的企业增加更多的不确定性。从中长期来看,中国必须要大幅完善公共管理体系,将公共管理放在国家议程的重要地位。这次调整将为政府、国有企业、私营企业以及外资企业更广泛协同合作提供了机会,特别是在智慧城市和智能基础设施等领域。新的消费模式、技术的进步以及商业创新将随之而来,从而进一步改变中国的商业格局。

(注:本文图片来自网络)

HSM | Why Chinese are Workaholic?

By Edward Tse
January 2020

Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse’s article was published in his regular column on Brazil’s HSM Management Magazine in January 2020 issue. In this article, Dr. Tse discusses the “working hard” culture of the Chinese businesses.

English Version

After decades of tremendous growth, China is now an upper-middle-income nation, according to the World Bank. Its reputation as an innovative economy is increasing. Along with its economic growth, China’s productivity too has been growing well.

The growth of China’s productivity during the last few decades is mainly due to the opening-up and reform policy implemented from 1978 onwards, its labor intensive exports driven manufacturing and investment-led growth model underpinned this extraordinary progress. Yet some strains associated with that approach have become evident in the last one decade or so as these economic drivers seem to be running out of steam.

China stepped into the innovation wave after the wireless internet (together with smart phones) became prevalent. Chinese entrepreneurs have leveraged this technology to create a range of new business models and products that cater to the evolving consumer and business needs. In the race against time and in the midst of hyper-intensive competition, Chinese entrepreneurs have to be fast, agile and adaptive in order to remain ahead of others. They often don’t mind using the market as a test bed for experimentation as they fine-tune their business models along the way. Quick experimentation often becomes the core part of the very culture of Chinese companies. Speed, rhythm, intensity and multi-tasking have become parts of the DNA of many Chinese companies. On top of this, evolving government policies and regulations are often a source of uncertainty and they keep Chinese entrepreneurs persistently and highly alert and vigilant.

As a result, many Chinese businesses have formed a culture of “working hard.” This is the now widely known as “996” schedule – which means working from 9am to 9pm, six days a week. This has become common place among Chinese entrepreneurs, particularly among large internet-based businesses. The 996 schedule was initially applied in order to improve overall productivity of companies by increasing working hours.

Source: Baidu

However, the notion of “996” has become somewhat controversial. Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma is a vocal supporter of the gruelling working hours commonplace in China’s tech and internet industry. He once said at an internal meeting that this is, “a huge blessing that many companies and employees do not have the opportunity to have,” according to a transcript published on Alibaba’s official WeChat account. Richard Liu, CEO of JD.com, a leading e-commerce company, responded to the recent layoffs saying that JD.com would never force employees to work in a 995 or 996 schedule, but every staff of JD.com must “have a competitive spirit!”

Besides the 996 schedule, many Chinese companies, including both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs), are actively seeking multiple ways of improving productivity. More and more companies, especially SOEs and some internet companies, are beginning to provide free meals to their employees in order to reduce the amount of time spent on purchasing and eating meals. Moreover, employees’ dormitories and free buses are also being offered as perks to simplify the lives of employees and make sure they can get to work on time. In some companies, a military-style management has also been deployed to improve the efficiency and productivity of their staff’s work.

The “working hard” culture of the Chinese businesses probably won’t go away any time soon.

How Would China’s Businesses be Affected by the Coronavirus?

Source: Baidu

These days, the news is dominated by the impact of the Coronavirus and how China is coping with this latest shock. Consumer demand for goods and services is declining in China; sectors such as retail, travel and leisure are the most directly impacted as businesses have closed or are semi-closed throughout the country. The Coronavirus has challenged China, exposing some crucial gaps, but it will also potentially create new opportunities. Attention will be focused on improving China’s entire public agenda, not only one or two vertical areas.

In the aftermath of the crisis, one would expect China’s governance system to become more transparent and there will be more accountability. In order to ensure its public agenda is advanced properly, a lot more effort and resources will need to be put in by the central government as well as local governments at the provincial, city and township levels. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises, including both Chinese privately-owned enterprises (POEs) and foreign companies, will be able to better leverage their respective strengths and capabilities. As a case in point, two new specialized hospitals were built in Wuhan – one in 10 days and one in 14 – through the combined efforts of SOEs, POEs and foreign companies. That was quite a feat.

Comprehensive data has always been collected throughout China and surveillance too, was prevalent, and yet China wasn’t able to fully track those who might have contracted the virus. In the aftermath, surveillance and monitoring will become even more important for ensuring their utility for the people.

China’s socioeconomic pattern is also changing as consumer behavior shifts and technology continues to develop. Consumption is shifting increasingly from offline to online. New commercial applications of technologies such as 5G, AI and IoT are also developing faster because of the epidemic. We will see innovative business models and changes in the ways that humans interact with each other and with machines in the future.

Source: Baidu

What trends could possibly drive future business opportunities in the aftermath of the Coronavirus?

1. A major nationwide effort would be made towards creation of a safer and more health-conscious living environment.

2. For public health: early detection, prevention, advanced treatment, and diagnostics would receive much more attention and a more comprehensive public health management system would evolve.

3. There would be more Public Private Partnerships (PPP). Collaboration between private and public sectors to create solutions addressing public agenda issues going forward.

4. The development of a more ubiquitous, connected and intelligent society will accelerate, leveraging new disruptive technologies such as IoT, AI, 5G and blockchain.

5. Big data will become even more prevalent with more data sharing across the board for more effective public agenda management.

6. A rise of new modes of interactions will be imminent. Although human-to-human touchpoints will still remain, other forms of interactions, such as human-to-machine and machine-to-machine will grow exponentially.

7. While entrepreneurship and innovation have already been rising in China over the last several decades, they would further accelerate going forward for addressing the pain points that were exposed during the Coronavirus crisis.

The virus has exposed China’s many problems and created challenges. In the short run, it has added more uncertainty to businesses operating in and with China from manufacturing, supply chain and consumer demand perspectives. In the medium to longer-run, we can expect a huge potential shift as China re-invents itself, making the improvement of its public agenda management a top priority. Collaborations across governments, SOEs, POEs and foreign companies to foster synergies, while at the same time, new consumer patterns and innovative use of technology and business models will come along.

谢祖墀 | 超越数字转型

数字转型是一个几乎每天都被人们所热议的话题。无论是企业家、咨询顾问、学者还是自媒体人等,都在热烈地讨论究竟数字转型是什么,要怎样做,成功转型的秘诀在什么地方。一些在数年前不相信互联网对商业有重大影响的“实体经济企业家”,今天亦在参与这个话题的探讨并着力于带领他们的企业进行数字转型。

目前,世界正处于以数据为驱动的大变革时代,中国亦在此潮流之中。早在党的十九大中就明确指出,“我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。”这是根据国际国内环境的变化,加之中国现有的发展阶段做出的重大判断。近期,中国信通院发布的《中国数字经济发展与就业白皮书》显示,2018年我国数字经济规模达到31.3万亿元,增长20.9%,占GDP比重为34.8%。随着经济结构的优化,消费市场也随之发生了一些变化,例如智能化的产品在近年来备受大众的青睐。为了适应市场的快速变化,企业作为实体经济的主体,在发展中必须与数字化结合得越来越紧密。企业们要么选择遵循数字转型的道路,要不然只能遵循即将被淘汰的道路。这是他们不得不下的赌注。当然,随着时代的快速变化,“数字转型”本身作为一个命题亦在改变。

在2018年的微软Ignite会议上,微软CEO萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)提出了“科技强度”(Technology Intensity)的概念。他认为对于企业而言,数字转型和云技术必不可少,且一部分头部的企业已超越了基础技术,采用了较尖端的科技进行创新并开发独特的新型解决方案,从而赋予自己新的竞争优势。我们所熟知的大众汽车(Volkswagen)、联合利华(Unilever)、万事达卡(Mastercard)等皆是如此。

科技强度涉及两个方面:第一,每个组织都必须迅速地采用前沿的技术;第二,他们需要建立自己独特的数字化能力。科技强度以这样的一个等式来表达:(科技采用率)^(科技实力)=科技强度 [(tech adoption) ^ tech capabilities = tech intensity]。

一篇《福布斯》(Forbes)文章解释说:“纳德拉将科技强度描述为文化思维方式和业务流程的融合,促进了数字化能力的发展和传播,这些能力创造了端到端的数字化反馈回路,消除了数据孤岛并释放了信息流以激发洞见和预测,自动化了工作流程和智能服务。”

对于企业而言,数字转型有许多好处。迁移到云存储并采用SaaS(软件即服务)解决方案可提供敏捷性、弹性并节省成本。在2020年,数字转型的应用将更为普遍。想要成功达到数字化转型的企业将不仅是生存下去的公司,还有需要跳出原有思路、愿意探索新型协作方式、发现创新解决方案的企业。

那么数字转型与科技强度之间的区别是什么呢?数字转型更多地与所使用的技术和基础架构有关,而科技强度则与企业内更广泛的文化有关——企业如何应用数字转型里已有的工具来挑战极限。换句话说,数字转型能帮助一家公司生存,但是拥抱科技强度将会帮助一家公司进行更深层次的改变和发展。

专注于科技强度可以提升数字转型的高度。科技强度倾向于采用更快的速度,利用它来建立自己的能力并开发特有的知识产权。科技强度将为公司更好地管理其员工,并为当前的竞争格局以及未来的挑战做准备。

为了通过建立自身的技术能力来加速提高影响力,公司需要在人才方面进行投资,建立一种鼓励能力建设和协作以激发新的突破性概念的工作文化。例如,某家企业可能发展了一个概念上的构想,但他们还需要具备拥有构建概念所需的工程和设计技能的员工与将其付诸实践的能力。

信任(trust)是采用和构建技术的基础,信任既是对技术的信任,也是信任合作伙伴的业务模式与他们自身能够成功保持一致。这听起来有些陈词滥调,但是如果公司的技术合作伙伴与他们竞争,他们将永远无法使用技术来建立竞争优势。

一些学术研究的结果说明了技术强度是组织成功的主要驱动力。美国波士顿大学的詹姆士·贝森(James Bessen)对关于是什么使顶尖公司超越了竞争对手进行了广泛的研究。他的结论是,建立专有技术是决定性因素,有助于显著提高生产率。

除了企业之外,科技强度的概念也更广泛地适用于国家的层面,它对政策制定具有重大影响。

在过去的200年里,国家之间出现了巨大的收入贫富差距。经济学家们,特别是美国达特茅斯学院的迭戈·科明(Diego Comin)教授指出,造成这种差距的主要原因是一个国家在使用新技术时的“使用强度”。科明教授将“使用强度”定义为某一种技术在进入一个国家后渗透到民众中的强度。该定义与我们对组织“科技强度”的认知紧密相关。随着时间的推移,技术渗透率或“使用强度”更高的国家将更容易建立自己的技术。这使政府能够为其国民提供更好的服务,使这些国家的大型企业更具竞争力,使中小型企业和企业家提高他们的生产力。

为了鼓励技术的采用,国家们需要优先考虑在哪里下注,例如如何广泛地使用连通性(connectivity)等。今天,各个国家和地区之间的连通性仍然不尽相同。以目前的采用率,低收入国家和地区要实现大范围的互联网访问要等到2042年。

无论是对于国家亦或对于公司而言,要下的赌注仍然极高。在数字时代里,科技强度对于经济增长至关重要,每个部门都将受其影响。因此,这是一个在国家和全球范围内促进更大的经济发展的机会。而科技强度带给不管是私营还是公共部门的利益和资源,都将让他们在面对社会的紧迫挑战时较能有些弹性的空间。

你的企业准备好超越数字转型了吗?

注:本文图片均来自网络