Why and How China Works

Preface

Over the years, perspectives on China have run the gamut from predicting “the coming collapse of China” to expecting that “the twenty-first century will be the Chinese Century.”  And we’ve heard every perspective in between.

Despite its many ups and downs, the Chinese economy has grown significantly over the past several decades. While at any given point in time one could point to China’s many problems and risks, China has, as a whole, exhibited an extraordinary level of resilience. Why is that and how does China do it?

In this article, I take my best shot at summarizing the three primary reasons for China’s resilience: A composite “three-layered duality” structure; a pragmatic approach of experimentation, learning and adaptation; and a set of highly sophisticated large-scale coordination and organizational capabilities.

These three approaches are the direct result of the way modern China has evolved and developed over the past two hundred years.  As Chinese intellectuals reflected on how China could modernize itself, they would often draw upon China’s vast reservoir of history, culture, and civilization. At the same time, they would take into account newer concepts – which often originated from the West – as well as the realities of our changing world, in their search for Chinese-style modernization and modernity with Chinese characteristics.

I hope that my perspective will be helpful and instructive for executives of global companies who are now evaluating what role China will play in their businesses in the coming years. Developing a company’s global strategy – which, by definition, includes a China strategy – requires a deep understanding of China’s evolving role in the new world, a basic knowledge of the fundamental reasons why and how China works, and a clear-eyed view of the implications of the new dynamics of competition and collaboration given China’s role in the world.

THE FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS ARE CLEAR AND CONSISTENT, BUT ARTICULATING THEM REQUIRES SOPHISTICATION

Ever since China’s reform and opening up began, the nation’s growth has impressed and surprised a lot of people. Many of them have tried to explain why China has been able to grow so fast and how it has been able to exhibit such a high level of resilience. Some commentators have suggested that the Chinese government controlled everything in the country, including each and every single step of the various enterprises and their people. These commentators typically – and falsely – equated today’s China with the former Soviet Union. Among these critics, some would chatter on about, “the coming collapse of China” or say “China has peaked.” At the same time, others would say that China would ultimately fully embrace capitalism and that the Chinese would become “just like us.”

I cannot say whether these narratives are entirely right or wrong. However, they certainly do not explain the real fundamentals of why China has been able to achieve so much within such a short span of time. Even in this “Era of Mega Changes” China has continued to exhibit high levels of resilience. Let’s explore some of the actual reasons for China’s sustained growth.

“THREE-LAYERED DUALITY”

Since 1840, generations of Chinese intellectuals have been searching for ways that China could revitalize itself. This soul-searching process has accelerated since the country’s reform and opening up in the early 1980s. This process included many cycles of experimentation, learning and adaptation during which the Chinese repeatedly absorbed new ideas against the backdrop of the country’s ancient and long history, culture, and civilization. While the Chinese leaders embraced fundamental beliefs such as socialism and traditional Chinese culture, they also accepted new ideas such as a market economy and globalization. This type of inclusive and adaptive approach against a specific historical backdrop created a development mechanism that underwent repeated adjustments and, along the way, led to optimization. As a result, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” emerged, evolved, and continues to evolve to this day.

More specifically, China’s governance system features a “three-layered duality” structure. The central government provides the overall development direction for the country, as well as specific strategies and policies. Unlike the former Soviet Union, the Chinese government – post-reform and opening up – would not specifically dictate goals for Chinese enterprises but would merely provide broad direction and suggestions for the development of the entire nation. Of course, the government would have expectations for their state-owned enterprises (SOEs) whose role is to (at least partially) fulfill certain social responsibilities. However, for the privately-owned enterprises (POEs), the government would not and, in fact, cannot dictate operating targets.

Exhibit 1: China’s “Three-Layered Duality” Structure

Source: Gao Feng analysis

One of the most dramatic developments in China since its reform and opening up has been the rapid development of the private sector. Today, many of the most successful companies in China are private-sector enterprises. On the other hand, SOEs play a critical and dominant role in industries such as banking, telecommunications, aviation, railways, and energy. Enterprises, especially POEs, often get cues from the central government’s policies. They react quickly and are often able to take advantage of the opportunities brought about by the new government policies.

Resourceful and capable local governments would often play an important role in serving as a connection between the central government’s policies and the enterprises, both those that are state-owned (SOEs) and those that are privately-owned (POEs). These local governments would provide funding and other forms of support to qualified and interested companies. Local governments would help to incubate start-ups and help connect them with players both upstream and downstream of the companies’ value chains, including potential customers.  For more mature companies, local governments would provide even broader support through the government’s ecosystem.

China’s dual economic structure of SOEs and POEs provides both benefits and downsides. In addition to their financial responsibilities, SOEs must often fulfill social obligations. For example, they provide most of China’s essential public goods.

The most classic case is China’s high-speed railways or HSR. Within slightly over a decade, China went from having no HSR to having the world’s most extensive (and high-quality) 42,000-kilometer HSR system. Without the SOEs, one would be hard-pressed to imagine how this system could be built at such speed and magnitude. If an HSR project were to be undertaken by POEs, its financial feasibility would not likely pass the typical financial hurdles. However, from an SOE standpoint, it would view such a project from a more macro and long-term perspective. In addition to considerations of short-term financial returns, SOEs would also need to consider social contributions and financial benefits at a broader level.

Exhibit 2: China’sHigh-speed Railways Network, 2010 vs. 2023

Source: Internet

Another notable example is China’s metro (urban rail transit) system. As of the end of 2022,urban rail transit systems are operational in 52 cities throughout the Chinese mainland, comprising a total length of 10,288 kilometers of operating lines. This achievement makes China’s urban rail transit network the largest in the world [1]. While it took China 38 years to reach the first 1,000 kilometers of operational urban rail transit, the second 1,000 kilometers was achieved in less than five years. Measured by the annual growth rate of the total length, China is also significantly ahead of the rest of the world with a double-digit growth rate. In comparison, the rest of the world’s urban rail transit grew at a rate of 2.5%-4.5% over the same period.

The rapid expansion of the metro system in China is primarily due to the government’s decision to prioritize the development of the urban transportation network. SOEs participate in the metro system’s investment, construction, operation, and management. It is part of the social responsibility of the SOEs which actively assist the local governments in delivering public goods to their residents.

The construction of 5G base stations is another good example. As early as in 2015, just one year after the commercialization of 4G in China, the government announced a plan of “striving to commercialize 5G by 2020.” On the one hand, major Chinese telecom SOEs – China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom – were actively prepared to build the 5G base stations. On the other hand, private sector companies like Huawei and Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Company (ZTE) made significant investments in the research and development (R&D) of 5G infrastructure equipment such as antennas and radio frequency devices. As of the end of March 2023, 2.384 million 5G base stations were built in China – accounting for over 60% of the world’s total – serving over 590 million subscribers in China, with many base stations located in remote areas. While building out so many base stations may not make sense in the short-term financially, SOEs would nonetheless build them as part of their social responsibility.

In other words, the development of China’s 5G network, from the R&D of fundamental components to the nationwide deployment of base stations, relied heavily on the backing of both SOEs and POEs along with the government. Together, they proactively addressed the current national development requirements and fulfilled their social responsibilities while generating long-term financial benefits.

Of course, there is often friction between SOEs and POEs, especially when they compete in the same sector. Ensuring fair competition in these cases is critical. All along, some commentators would say, “state advances while the private sector retreats,” while others would say “POEs do a much better job than SOEs in sectors such as the internet.” While some of these narratives are not necessarily untrue, China’s “dual economic structure” as a whole is extremely effective, particularly when one considers China’s development from an overall, long-term perspective.

The three-layered structure consisting of the central government, local governments, and businesses, in combination with a dual economic structure comprised of both SOEs and POEs, creates a multi-dimensional “three-layered duality” structure. While this structure may sound complicated at first, it is actually quite simple and effective. Governance of such a large and multi-faceted polity requires coordination and dynamic, real-time adjustments. To accomplish this, strong leadership-driven large-scale cooperation and organizational capabilities are essential. At the beginning of the reform and opening up period, Chinese leaders did not have a clear and complete blueprint for development. Hence, an approach that involved rounds of experimentation, learning and adaptation became the underlying mechanism for continuous adjustment and optimization.

EXPERIMENTATION, LEARNING AND ADAPTATION

Since 1842, generations of Chinese intellectuals have undertaken rounds of study and reflection to determine how to rejuvenate the Chinese nation. They drew inspiration from Chinese history, culture, civilization, and ideas from the West. These elites studied, collectively reflected, and discussed and, ultimately, they came up with their own new and innovative ideas.

Since its reform and opening up, Chinese leaders have likewise adopted an approach of cycles of experimentation, learning, and adaptation to search for ways in which China could most effectively develop.

Four cities – Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou, and Xiamen – were assigned Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status in the early stages of the reform and opening up. These cities could offer more open policies to attract foreign capital and talent than the rest of the country. These cities were allowed and encouraged “to be bold” in experimenting with new ideas and policies that the rest of China could not.

Many favorable policies were implemented in the SEZs. For instance, companies in an SEZ could benefit from preferential tax rates on corporate income, equipment, raw material imports, and product exports. Other policies included foreign exchange settlement and remittance, land access, as well as entry and exit procedures. Serving as gateways for international exchange, SEZs leveraged their policy and location advantages to achieve significantly higher growth rates than other regions in China.

Exhibit 3: Portrait of Deng Xiaoping on Shennan Avenue in Shenzhen (left), First Five Special Economic Zones in China (right)

Source: Internet, Gao Feng analysis

In fact, whenever there were any major new initiatives, China would conduct pilots before launching the initiatives at full scale. The SEZ initiative, launched by Deng Xiaoping, is one of the most well-known examples. After the first successful batch of pilot cities provided valuable experiences and insights, the Chinese government designated Hainan province as another SEZ in 1988. This designation followed the establishment of 12 “Comprehensive Reform Pilot Zones,” also known as “New Special Economic Zones,” which included the Shanghai Pudong and Tianjin Binhai areas. Additionally, five “Financial Pilot Zones” were established, including Wenzhou City in Zhejiang Province, the Pearl River Delta Region in Guangdong Province, Quanzhou City in Fujian Province, Guangxi Province, and Qingdao City in Shandong Province.

During the 1990s and early 2000s, the most talked-about phrase in China was probably “(How China could) align with international practices.” This summarized China’s desire to understand and follow international rules and best practices. “Aligning with international practices” pertained to a wide range of areas, such as development models, policies, and regulations. It reflects China’s desire to integrate into the rest of the world.

The Chinese would benchmark practices and experiences from other countries or jurisdictions. China’s learning targets began with Hong Kong, then moved on to Singapore and Taiwan, followed by Japan and Korea, and finally extended to the West and the rest of the world.  Before implementing important policies in areas such as finance, healthcare, social welfare, and industry development, the Chinese government would study the practices and experiences of a range of countries and jurisdictions, comparing and contrasting these approaches. Based on their analysis, the Chinese government would decide on the best strategies for China.

As a reform mechanism, pilot programs are still being undertaken today. The Chinese government (and enterprises) can gain insights and make appropriate adjustments through pilots. For example, in May 2023, Zhejiang Province held its first Pilot Promotion Conference for Common Prosperity. The conference reviewed how Zhejiang Province progressively implemented pilots in stages for achieving common prosperity, using the central government’s “pilot within a pilot” approach. Although there are no similar precedents that Zhejiang can follow, this approach could become very effective and have a nationwide impact.

Today, the implementation of China’s central bank digital currency (e-CNY) is progressing across China. Tailored e-CNY payment solutions are being developed and tested within some pilot regions, such as Jiangsu Province, Shenzhen City in Guangdong Province, and Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province, for various application scenarios. China aims to integrate the e-CNY into people’s daily lives step by step by piloting it under various scenarios, such as digital red packets for shopping incentives, purchasing and redeeming sports lotteries, digital wallets that offer a new payment experience to expatriates, and cross-border transactions under the consensus of different countries’ central banks.

Pilot programs have played a significant role in many respects as an essential approach to China’s reform and opening up. First, they can test the effectiveness of new systems or policies within a limited range and provide invaluable experience to guide full-scale rollouts. Second, they can reduce potential resistance to changes and increase acceptability and flexibility. Third, they can take full advantage of the spirit of innovation at the local and grassroots levels, ensuring that reform aligns with local conditions. Fourth, they can avoid a one-size-fits-all approach and reduce the risks and costs of reform. Finally, they can improve the efficiency and quality of reform, further driving improvements and development.

LARGE-SCALE ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITIES

The execution of the “three-layered duality” approach requires significant coordination and organizational capabilities. Although Dr. Sun Yat-sen, the chief architect of modern China’s efforts to overthrow the Qing dynasty in the early 1900s, once said, “The Chinese are like a batch of loose sand,” (meaning the Chinese did not work together). Although not perfect, China’s several millennia-long governance systems – a mix of Confucianism and Legalism – were quite effective in governing a vast territory which included a large, complex and diverse population.

Since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, the Chinese government has initiated a strong overall organizational structure across the entire nation. Managing this tight and vast structure requires strong organizational capabilities. According to the PRC’s constitution, the country is organized into three levels of administrative divisions: provinces (which include autonomous regions and municipalities), counties (comprising cities and autonomous counties), and towns (including villages and streets). These undertaking-specific management divisions form the basic units of governance in China. The central government leads all these units while the local governments provide day-to-day administration.

The Chinese government uses a Hukou system, also known as a household registration system. Through this system, the Chinese government maintains data on where people’s primary residence is located and this data is used to administer social services and government benefits based on the official Hukou location. As a centrally-controlled hierarchy with a broad and detailed administrative structure across all of China, the Chinese government’s ability to organize and mobilize resources at a large scale has become a standout feature of the PRC.

China’s massive poverty alleviation endeavor exemplifies its strong large-scale organizational capabilities, as evidenced by the remarkable transformation of Jinzhai County, Anhui Province. In 2014, approximately 40,000 households with 130,000 individuals were registered as impoverished families in Jinzhai, accounting for 22.1% of the total population. Since the poverty alleviation campaign started in 2016, all 130,000 individuals across 71 poverty-stricken villages in Jinzhai were lifted out of poverty within just four years [2]. Consequently, Jinzhai was taken off of China’s list of poverty-stricken counties. Such extraordinary success didn’t happen by luck.

This remarkable feat required meticulous planning and execution. It began by conducting a nationwide census to identify and register all impoverished citizens, establishing clear targets and safeguarding against corruption. Grassroots poverty alleviation teams were mobilized by provincial and local governments, with each village that had a poverty household receiving assigned secretaries and resident working groups. By 2020, over 255,000 resident teams and 3 million officials had been dispatched across China. Aside from sending permanent officials, the government instituted a “Paired-up Assistance System,” assigning designated poverty alleviation helpers to each household with personalized and targeted intervention plans, strictly implemented in accordance with poverty alleviation manuals from the State Council (Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development). These paired-up helpers were rotated annually and evaluated after each term to ensure accountability. In addition, the government also mobilized SOEs, POEs, and local PLA (military) to contribute through donations, purchasing agricultural goods from impoverished families, and providing job opportunities if needed.

Since China’s reform and opening up, over 770 million people have been lifted from poverty. Rhetoric alone cannot achieve such a massive and effective decades-long program. Rather, it is China’s large-scale organizational capabilities and institutional strength that enabled this historical achievement which has earned China respect around the world.

Exhibit 4: China’sPoverty Reduction in Rural Areas, 1978-2020

*Note: Defined as annual income below RMB 2,300 per capita in a household (Set by the National Bureau of Statistics of PRC in 2010)

Source: Xinhua News Agency, Gao Feng analysis

Such a large-scale organizational capability is often called a “whole-of-nation approach.” This means that when the Chinese government aims to achieve something of scale and significance, it can and will mobilize large-scale, nationwide resources and capabilities to get the job done. The poverty alleviation initiative is just one of many examples. Other major initiatives, such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the anti-desertification effort, and the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, also require the sustained mobilization of large-scale resources.

In the podcast China Corner Office produced by The China Project, Apple University Professor Doug Guthrie stated, “Apple has a significant market in China, as does Tesla and other companies. But what makes these companies so powerful is their management of the supply chain.” [3] However, as Doug pointed out, the capability of supply chain management relies on the advantageous features of China and its government (both central and local) and SOEs. First, China has access to a massive migrant labor force of 350 million workers that can rapidly scale up or down through the government-controlled labor dispatch system. Second, extensive integrated transportation infrastructure efficiently connects raw material suppliers, component manufacturers, assembly factories, and logistics networks, enabling responsive and nimble manufacturing ecosystems. Finally, China has strategically created industry clusters in certain cities and regions, such as the automotive manufacturing cluster in Guangzhou, which promote specialization, knowledge sharing, and tight supplier integration.

The combination of a flexible labor force, integrated infrastructure, and industry clustering provides China with a unique manufacturing process that underpins the success of many foreign firms operating there, including Apple.

A large number of suppliers, including those from China and other countries and regions, rely on the supply chain ecosystem and infrastructure that have been developed over time. The Chinese government and SOEs played a significant role in providing the necessary public goods. Additionally, the local governments were particularly instrumental in working with the suppliers and manufacturers to mobilize labor to work in these ecosystems. The efficient and dynamic management and coordination of this supply chain ecosystem and infrastructure enables the highly efficient nature of Apple’s supply chain.

In simple terms, China also adopts a “whole-of-nation approach” to support Apple’s supply chain development. As it builds out its supply chain in China, Apple is looking not only for low labor costs but also other benefits that are generated from the coordination and organization that the Chinese government, particularly local governments, can drive and deliver. In addition, the numerous suppliers, primarily Chinese, involved in these complex supplier ecosystems would naturally find ways to synchronize with the orchestration by Apple and the leading manufacturers and local governments.

Professor Guthrie also emphasized that “no intellectual property theft” occurred at Apple in China: “In today’s era…the real IP is around manufacturing processes… Apple will never set up a factory in China. What they did was they took their employees, who are brilliant people in operation supply chain management, and they embedded them in the factories of China’s suppliers. They teach, and everybody learns together. And so, it’s hard for me to think about this as some commentators think about this as stealing IP – I don’t think it’s stealing IP. These are collaborative relationships in which people learn together.” [3]

Professor Guthrie believed Apple and its Chinese suppliers developed the necessary intellectual property in a collaborative manner. Guided by a spirit of collective cooperation, suppliers, regardless of their origin, can consistently assist Apple’s highly efficient supply chain with innovations facilitated through the provision of public goods by the Chinese government and SOEs. This is made possible through meticulous and extensive coordination at all times.

A COMPOSITE PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

China’s economy is neither a market economy nor a planned economy but, rather, it is a combination of both. SOEs, POEs (both local and foreign), local governments and central government, all play critical roles in China’s unique economy. For Chinese companies, particularly the POEs, the government does not allocate planned resources and performance targets. Instead, enterprises drive their own business based on the central government’s policies, entrepreneurship, equity reform, market competition and innovation, often with support from their local governments. The diverse stakeholders in China’s mixed economic model leverage their respective strengths while aligning with national priorities through a collaborative approach.

The Chinese local governments play a crucial role in driving public-private partnerships. Many local governments are well-positioned to support businesses today as they have come a long way economically over the last several decades. Cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi, Nanjing, Tianjin, and Chongqing, among many others, are all well-known for supporting businesses. Among these, Hefei City in Anhui Province stands out as a notable example.

Hefei’s Experience

Situated strategically between the Yangtze and Huai Rivers, Hefei, the capital of Anhui province in Eastern China, has long played a pivotal role in regional administration, economy, and military affairs throughout history. With its advantageous geography, Hefei emerged as a critical hub for trade and transport. Today, the city is recognized as a thriving technology and economic center in China’s central and eastern regions.

Often called the “Hefei Model,” the city’s developmental approach leverages state-owned enterprises and academic institutions to establish industry-focused investment funds. Through direct investments and active participation in various funds, the government drives the infusion of private capital to foster business expansion. This model, predicated on judiciously directing investments into priority sectors, has proven effective in driving Hefei’s economic development and has benefited many businesses along the way.

Exhibit 5: Geographic location of Hefei, BOE, Lenovo and Compal Future Center (LCFC), and NIO Parks in Hefei

Source: Internet, Gao Feng analysis

A key factor in Hefei’s success is how the region work’s with business. Despite government shareholding, companies maintain a degree of autonomy and managerial control. This allows the companies to run their business in their own way but, at the same time, they can also leverage support that the government provides. Through this approach, Hefei has excelled in strategic sectors, including new-generation display devices, integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, and new energy vehicles.

Furthermore, Hefei embraces the mindset of venture capital and investment banks. Their investment funds would recruit industry experts and seasoned advisors for meticulous evaluation of opportunities. Investments are rigorously assessed for technology, supply chains and market potential. The ability to generate ecosystem synergies is also critical. Ongoing support provided by various governmental departments ensures these synergies can be materialized. As a result, Hefei attracts both established players and emerging innovators and, along the way, they form a robust ecosystem.

To ensure a proper focus and capability boundaries for selected sectors, Hefei pioneered the “Chain Chief” notion, designating senior government officials who are responsible for optimizing industrial chain development plans and policies. This initiative includes cultivating key companies, facilitating pivotal projects, and establishing service platforms and mechanisms for regular services. Coordinating resources across industrial chains through these “Chain Chief” positions supports accountability for value chain integrity and progression.

Moreover, Hefei propagates a business-friendly environment underscored by innovation and service. Augmented by robust industry support and technological incentives, this milieu has magnetized numerous companies. Notable illustrations include BOE, a leading Chinese semiconductor and display device manufacturer; Lenovo, a global information and computer technology (ICT) player, and; NIO, a well-known Chinese electric vehicle brand.

The first case is BOE. In 2008, BOE, a leading Chinese semiconductor and display device manufacturer, planned a landmark US$2.5 billion investment to construct a 6th generation Liquid-crystal display (LCD) production line in Hefei. At the time, Hefei’s entire fiscal revenue was only around US$2.3 billion [4]. Despite substantial economic and political risks, Hefei decided to support this ambitious project.

Per their agreement, Hefei committed US$900 million in direct investment along with US$1.2 billion in conditional loan guarantees, contingent upon attracting co-investors. This public-private collaboration aimed to catalyze industrial upgrading. BOE has since invested over US$15 billion in Hefei, creating 20,000 jobs and US$6 billion in annual revenue. BOE built an integrated, efficient R&D and manufacturing base by leveraging Hefei’s strategic location and talent pipeline. This has enhanced BOE’s overall competitiveness and innovative capacity, cementing Hefei as a global display production hub.

The second case is Lenovo, one of the world’s largest ICT giants. In 2011, Lenovo partnered to construct a Hefei laptop factory, Compal, increasing annual production capacity forty-fold to 40 million units in six years [5], and it is presently the world’s largest laptop plant.

Following the initiation of production, Lenovo contributed up to 40% of BOE’s display screen capacity in the initial years while sustaining BOE’s development by incorporating 5% of its laptops with BOE’s new-generation display screens. To cultivate an integrated value chain, Hefei attracted over 300 suppliers, including 20 public firms, thereby incubating an innovative ICT cluster. The government provides incentives, such as tax relief, to facilitate Lenovo’s continuous expansion. Furthermore, Hefei’s partnership with Lenovo exemplifies a sophisticated orchestration of synergies across companies and sectors. Through proactive supplier recruitment, Hefei has nurtured an integrated ICT ecosystem. Continued support, including incentives and talent programs, further fortifies Lenovo’s position as an anchor tenant, underscoring Hefei’s adept capacity to incubate industrial champions and clusters.

The third example is NIO, a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) brand, one of China’s “New Force in EVs.” In 2016, NIO partnered with Jianghuai Automobile (JAC Motors) to utilize JAC’s Hefei production facilities, establishing an initial manufacturing base. In 2020, recognizing NIO’s economic potential, Hefei provided over US$1 billion in strategic investment to make NIO’s China headquarters and EV cluster in Hefei [6]. This collaboration had a real economic and social impact, further catalyzing other industry investments for NIO and Hefei. It supports the development of NIO and a smart EV industry cluster on the ground. Hefei’s investment and policy incentives turbo-charged NIO’s growth, transforming it from a nascent entity on the brink of bankruptcy into a prominent player in China’s electric vehicle industry. Examples like this demonstrate Hefei’s capacity to nurture emerging champions even amid periods of uncertainty. The ensuing cluster development and synergy exemplify the potential of the “Hefei Model”.

These three instances underscore Hefei’s adeptness at orchestrating synergies across sectors. Lenovo’s expansion spurred demand for BOE’s displays, thereby catalyzing the broader electronics cluster. With Lenovo and Compal Future Center (LCFC) contributing 10% of its GDP, Hefei could incubate emerging champions like NIO, revealing a significant capacity to leverage synergies.

Consequently, Hefei has cultivated advanced integrated circuits, new-generation displays, new energy vehicles, safety and emergency, smart devices, life science and health, and artificial intelligence sectors. Their nimble marshaling of resources has earned Hefei recognition as a highly-skilled quasi-venture investor.

BOE, Lenovo and NIO showcase Hefei’s sophistication in seizing opportunities to attract and build strategic industries. Hefei adeptly evolved sector clusters into fully-fledged industrial bases by attracting anchor companies and upgrading key industrial chains.

Additionally, effective administrative services and favorable policies are essential to Hefei’s business environment. This helps companies overcome capital, land and talent barriers and enables accelerated growth. Encouraged by the success of BOE,  Lenovo, and NIO, Hefei upholds an “industrial value chain-oriented” investment mindset for guiding the development of its portfolio of investments. Furthermore, driven by a philosophy of investing and building up industrial value chains, Hefei sets up market-oriented funds to invest across supply networks, further catalyzing its development.

For example, leveraging extensive high-tech expertise, Hefei incubated ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), an advanced semiconductor firm. Established in 2017 by GigaDevice and Hefei’s state-owned capital, CXMT announced mass production of DDR4 memory chips in 2019. In 2020, they raised RMB 15.6 billion [6] from strategic investors, including the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund, making them a competitive leader in the domestic semiconductor and wafer manufacturing sectors, competing against the monopolies of international giants.

Hefei has achieved win-win scenarios with social and economic benefits through its investments along various industry chains, cross-industry-chain synergies, and the associated technological innovation and application of these areas.

The scope of the local government’s support is not limited to Chinese companies only. The Hefei municipal government also prioritized the attraction of leading global players for craving its key industrial chains. By attracting a substantial number of foreign companies, such as Volkswagen and Corning Glass, Hefei has effectively enhanced the international competitiveness of its industrial clusters. This showcases Hefei’s adept capacity to nurture national as well as international champions in critical technology arenas.

Leveraging its robust New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry ecosystem and efficient governance, Hefei was able to attract Volkswagen, resulting in an investment of US$1.1 billion to build the company’s largest China R&D center in Hefei [7]. Moreover, Volkswagen has planned an additional investment of US$3.4 billion in Hefei’s NEV production and R&D. By choosing the NEV sector as one of its priorities, Hefei identified potential company targets, proactively reached out to them and aligned plans of investment on the ground. The access of its first investment would lead to others and would soon fill out the target sector’s industry chain and industry clusters.

Hefei demonstrates how a local government can effectively support businesses and help them to succeed, particularly those in the target strategic sectors. In addition to the anchor companies, clusters of suppliers can also help create stickiness of manufacturing in the locality.

Local Government’s Industrial Guidance Funds

The key role that local governments played, in particular, channeled through the government’s Industrial Guidance Fund, is vital for many businesses who moved their operations towards localization, which is also core to the “Hefei Model”.

The Venture Capital Guidance Fund (VCGF) is a type of Industrial Guidance Fund representing government-backed venture capital investors who typically strategically target specific industries, stages of development, and geographic regions. These entities, propelled by limited public funds, aim to attract private capital to bridge the financing needs of early-stage technology firms. By the end of 2022, Chinese governments had established over 1,500 VCGFs [8], with a total size of US$400 billion.

The significance of industrial guidance funds to local industries can be prominently exemplified by the VCGF of Shanghai, orchestrated by Shanghai Science and Technology Venture Capital. This fund strategically aligns with burgeoning sectors like new energy vehicles, biotechnology, and next-generation information technology. It boasts of investments in noteworthy enterprises such as Cmsemicon, a pioneer in mixed-signal chip design; Endovastec, a frontrunner in vascular interventional devices, and; Qihoo 360, a Chinese cybersecurity firm celebrated for its antivirus solutions.

In a similar vein, Guangzhou’s industrial guidance fund, with a capital of US$7 billion, champions high-tech arenas, including semiconductors and integrated circuits. This fund has been instrumental in fostering growth in companies like DarkMatter AI, creators of cognitive AI tools for education and health; GAC AION, a prominent EV subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC), and; GRGBanking, a leading solution provider for the intelligent finance industry.

Shenzhen’s industrial guidance funds, oriented toward angel investments, emerged as the preeminent fund of its kind, directing its focus toward strategic sectors like semiconductors, new materials, and biopharmaceuticals. Its enviable achievements encompass the incubation of over 200 enterprises, including stalwarts like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) and Mindray, a global giant in medical equipment headquartered in Shenzhen.

In parallel, the industrial guidance fund of Suzhou has significantly propelled the growth trajectories of leading players like Bloomage Biotech, renowned for its specialization in aesthetic biotechnological solutions; Novosense Microelectronics, a premier producer of advanced semiconductors and integrated circuits, and; Gstarsoft, an expert in Computer-Aided Design (CAD) software development.

Industrial guidance funds exemplify how targeted government venture capital can effectively catalyze development in emerging strategic industries. By attracting private capital and addressing financing gaps, industrial guidance funds accelerate technology commercialization and cluster growth, fostering China’s industrial growth.

Unsuccessful Cases

While the general experience of local government support for businesses has been positive, instances of unsuccessful cases have also emerged.

Suntech, a prominent solar firm backed by the Wuxi government, was an illustrative case. Established in 2001 through a government partnership, Suntech experienced rapid growth, culminating in an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 2005. That was an impressive milestone and testimony to Suntech’s technological prowess, robust supply chain, and support from the government. However, a mere eight years later, this erstwhile high-performer found itself undergoing bankruptcy restructuring [9].

Upon a retrospective examination, the demise of Suntech can be attributed to two pivotal factors. First, inadequate management practices resulted in poor investment decisions. Second, the company’s liquidity risks were exacerbated by an expansion of overcapacity funded by the government. The downfall of Suntech underscores the potential pitfalls of relying too much on governmental financial guidance and support, which may not only fail to foster sustainable development but can also inadvertently encourage a disregard for thorough examinations, leading to flawed decision-making.

Another example is Jiangxi LDK Solar. In 2007, LDK Solar had the largest IPO on the NYSE among all Chinese companies at the time. However, in its ambition to become the global leader in photovoltaic technology [10], LDK suffered a precipitous decline after the financial crisis. With a staggering debt-to-equity ratio of 102.7%, well beyond the 40% maximum allowed typically for Chinese photovoltaic companies as per prevailing policies, LDK began to run into problems. Its predicament continued despite the injection of RMB 3 billion in bailout funds from the Municipal Government of Xinyu City in Jiangxi province as well as the commitment of additional local state-owned capital.

An even more dramatic case unfolded in Wuhan’s investment in Hongxin Semiconductor in 2017. Despite receiving considerable funding amounting to RMB 128 billion and seemingly making strategic moves such as hiring experienced executives and acquiring a lithographic machine from ASML, a leading Dutch supplier for the semiconductor industry, Hongxin mortgaged the idle lithographic machine just two years later. Per a Tencent report [11], an investigation found executives had partnered with Wuhan officials to establish a shell company called Beijing Light Blueprint, which then created Hongxin. Hongxin had borrowed money from local banks in the name of Torch Construction Group, their primary contractor, and had been granting new loans to pay off previous debts. Through Torch Construction Group, they offloaded debts and risks onto banks, subcontractors, and suppliers while accruing substantial profits under the camouflage of being a semiconductor enterprise benefiting from government support. As this fraud was exposed, the Wuhan government took over the company and sought opportunities to sell it off.

These cases offer valuable lessons, underscoring the need for diligent oversight of the government’s industrial guidance funds and the implementation of robust accountability mechanisms to prevent the misuse of funds or overzealous strategies and mismanagement. However, the nature of “experimentation, learning and adaptation” implies that imperfections and failures will occasionally happen, but it also means that the mechanism allows for self-correction and has so far been proven quite effective.

LEARNING FROM THE PAST AND LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

Leveraging its large-scale organizational capabilities, China continues to refine its development model through experimentation, learning and adaptation while, at the same time, embracing key concepts such as “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” “building a community with a shared future for mankind”, and “Chinese modernization”. This development model and its concepts will continue to drive China forward, enabling it to play an increasingly more critical role globally.

These concepts were developed in the context of China’s history,  culture, and civilization.

Cultural and Civilizational Origins of the Development Model

China has a long and illustrious history, culture, and civilization. It has absorbed philosophies ranging from locally-born “Hundred Schools of Thought” during the Spring and Autumn and Warring States Period (around 770 – 221 BC) to the adoption of Buddhism from India since the Han Dynasty (around 206 BC–220 AD). While Confucianism and Legalism have been China’s governance for millennia, different thoughts, such as Daoism and Buddhism, have also significantly impacted Chinese thought. Moreover, other schools of thought, such as the Strategists, Militarists, Mohism, Yin-Yang, Logicians and others, have left their mark on Chinese philosophy and culture as evidenced by the common usage of many of their concepts in Chinese idioms which are still practiced today.

During the Han Dynasty, the imperial court decided to take on Confucianism as the only guiding school of thought and abandoned all others. Despite that shift, many other schools of thought still continued to linger on. As a result, Chinese culture has always been characterized by diversity and inclusivity, even while Confucianism, as the major guiding philosophy, did profoundly influence Chinese culture. In modern times, the Chinese also embraced modern science and Marxism. Of course, Marxism itself was Sinicized to some degree to fit the Chinese context better. Further, since its reform and opening up, China has also embraced core market economy principles.

This process involved repeated cycles of experimentation, learning, and adaptation, forging a development path toward “Chinese modernization” that combines tradition and modernity. President Xi Jinping underscores, “learning from the past, looking to the future,” which means that as it develops and evolves its path forward, China also looks to its past and leverages its vast reservoir of experiences, knowledge and synthesis for inspiration in the development of its future.

In the early 1990s, Chinese leaders began to talk about the concept of a “socialist market economy”, which may have appeared contradictory to many people. However, as Bob Ching, the founder of Boston Consulting Group’s China practice, noted, Chinese leaders recognized that this seemingly conflicting concept was internally coherent. Decades later, China’s extraordinary economic development

has demonstrated that this once-seemingly contradictory concept could not only work and but could work exceptionally well. In other words, Bob was right.

The notion of “veering between two apparently opposite forces” is crucial to Chinese culture. In Daoism, Buddhism, and the Yin-Yang school of thought, everything in the world is made up of two opposing factors, which may appear to be opposite to each other, but work as one.

As stated by Philip P. Pan in his article, “The Land that Failed to Fail” in The New York Times in 2018, “China has veered between these competing impulses ever since, between opening up and clamping down, between experimenting with change and resisting it, always pulling back before going too far in either direction for fear of running aground.” [12] Although Pan did not say why China was able to do this, he was perhaps the first person from the West to explain why China has shown such resilience in its development. Personally, I agree with Pan’s perspective that China has been “veering between two competing sides” and then will typically “pull back before going too far in either direction.”

Exhibit 6: The Cover of The New York Times article, The Land that Failed to Fail, by Philip P. Pan

Source: The New York Times

In fact, the concept that “two opposing forces can co-exist” is not limited to China but is also prevalent in other civilizations. In business, I have found striking analogies in the realm of corporate strategy, organization, and leadership.

Contrary to hitherto static theories on business strategies, the 1998 book “Competing on the Edge”, co-authored by Kathleen Eisenhardt, a professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, and Shona Brown, her Ph.D. student at that time, point out that the context of business strategy is the environment in which the company operates. That context, by nature, evolves, requiring businesses to continuously adapt and adjust their strategy to stay relevant.

Exhibit 7: Core Ideasof Competing on the Edge 

Source: Harvard Business School Press, Internet, Gao Feng analysis

As the book’s subtitle, “Strategy as Structured Chaos” suggests, the competitive landscape and business environment in which a company operates will inevitably veer between “structure” and “chaos”. It is neither entirely ordered nor entirely chaotic (disorderly), and the boundary between the two can constantly shift over time and space. In a highly complex and rapidly changing business environment, a corporate strategist should understand the implications of the two seemingly opposing forces and then make judgments about what necessary actions need to be taken — in a timely manner — to adjust and balance. Eisenhardt and Brown suggested that finding a suitable balance between control and autonomy, centralization and decentralization, as well as stability and change, is crucial. Any management approach that only considers one side of the picture is often vulnerable amid rapid changes in the business world. According to Eisenhardt and Brown, formulating an effective corporate strategy in an ever-changing environment requires striking a balance between control and chaos — on a continued and dynamic basis.

Jon R. Katzenbach, my former colleague at Booz & Company, is an expert specializing in organizations. According to him, there is often a coexistence of “formal organizations” and “informal organizations” within an organization, and it is crucial to maintain a balance between the two. They coexist in a company’s operating model. A formal organization is the management structure that develops as a company grows, and it is the combination of rational elements such as rules, hierarchy, and performance metrics. In this kind of organization, most executives are trained with “hard courses” in finance, technology, and operation, and they are equipped with the skills to use tangible tools like organizational charts, process charts, and balanced scorecards to support their work.

On the other hand, the informal organization comprises emotional elements that hide beyond the boundaries of the formal, including values, emotions, behaviors, anecdotes, cultural norms, and peer relationships. This collection of “soft power” can have a subtle yet profound impact on every business. Even the most rational manager must admit that the informal organization, particularly during the journey of transformation, can lead to significant impacts, such as the rise of unforeseen grassroots leaders and the quick self-revamping and iteration of business units. However, the informal organization can also have adverse impacts, such as hidden dissenters, anxiety, and fear that can hinder progress.

The formal organization represents the organization’s consciousness, while the informal organization represents its subconsciousness. A skilled leader would know how to maintain and improve the formal organization while actively mobilizing the informal organization so that both can be developed in tandem. For any organization, the capability to lead outside the lines by balancing “soft power” and “hard power” to achieve top-notch performance is often the most critical leadership skill.

The concept of embracing opposing forces within an organization resonated with Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei. A feature from the May 2015 issue of Sino-Foreign Management reported that when Huawei topped the big league of global telecom equipment players in 2014, this is when its transformation journey also commenced. Corporate success resembles balancing on a tightrope, emerging not from established patterns but by navigating change and chaos through experience and periodic setbacks. As Ren stated, the optimal path materializes through a compromise between “shades of gray” – reconciling and tolerating complex, contradictory poles. This temporary harmony enables progress.

Such “shades of gray” solutions capture the essence of “competing the thought on the edge” – integrating yin-yang style opposing forces. It suggests that growth arises from the interaction between countervailing tensions. Huawei’s ascent showcases how synthesizing multiplicity and encouraging diversity propels organizations forward. At the edge of chaos lies order; at the edge of discord lies equilibrium. By mastering the art of paradox, visionary leaders transform struggle into strength.

In his 2019 book, “The Opposable Mind” [13], Roger L. Martin, former Dean of the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, states that an excellent leader must have “the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function,” and “instead of choosing one at the expense of the other, generate a creative resolution of the tension in the form of a new idea that contains elements of the opposing ideas but is superior to each.”

Martin argues in his book for the significance of imaginative leaders with minds that embrace opposition. Leaders must recognize that although the existing model may have enough information, it still needs improvement. Leaders with flexible minds frequently seek multiple hypotheses when making decisions and tolerate and encourage opposing ideas. When faced with opposing ideas, they do not simply choose one over the other but, instead, they develop an innovative new solution that integrates and goes beyond the existing ideas. This is also one of the development models that China’s leaders have been practicing.

Let us bring our attention from the West back to China.

China’s large-scale organizational capabilities have their origins in the Confucian tradition. The Chinese literati class would follow a philosophy of “Self-cultivation, family management, state governance, and bringing peace to all under heaven (修身,齐家,治国,平天下).”The idea of serving the world and the people was gradually extended from the individual to the wider community, demonstrating that Chinese literati not only considered themselves and their families but also the country and the world as a whole. This way of thinking embraced both the individual and the collective. The Chinese call this the “Literati Spirit (士大夫精神).”

Indeed, many historians have criticized Confucianism. According to them, Confucianism hindered the development of modern science and technology in China, leading to China falling behind Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries. Kenneth Pomeranz also discusses this phenomenon in his book, “The Great Divergence”. Nevertheless, Chinese intellectuals persisted in their efforts to revitalize China with their distinctive “Literati Spirit”. Their primary reference points were key aspects of Western thought and history, specifically the Renaissance, the Enlightenment Period, and the First Industrial Revolution.

Today, we can still observe that the Literati Spirit still exists in many Chinese people, but it has taken on a new form. This spirit is manifested not only in government officials but also in entrepreneurs. The book “Class of 1992: The Business Principles and Aspirations of the ‘New Literati’ Entrepreneurs,” by Mr. Chen Hai in 2012, revisits the emergence and development of the “Class of 1992” of entrepreneurs, documenting their lives before and after 1992.

Exhibit 8: Cover of The Class of 1992: The Business Principles and Aspirations of the “New Literati” Entrepreneurs

Source: CITIC Press Group

The year 1992 marked a milestone in China’s economic reform. Following Deng Xiaoping’s visit to the South and the 14th Party Congress, the notion of a “socialist market economy” was introduced. After several decades of development, China has created an economic miracle that still surprises the world. This period also gave rise to a group of ambitious and self-driven entrepreneurs, many of whom are commonly known as the “Class of 1992.”

China’s traditional education has upheld the notion of “elites governing the country” and “those who excel in education should serve in government”. However, since 1992, a growing number of elite government officials, intellectuals, and other members have gradually departed from the system, hoping to explore new opportunities in the market.

They are the “New Literati” referred to in the book, who were previously part of the public sector but have now emerged as successful figures in the business world. Prior to reform and opening up in the PRC – and the new opportunities that reform and opening up brought to the Chinese elite – the elite basically had only one (primary) career choice, which was a career in the public sector. With the reform and opening up, the best Chinese had another choice: to become entrepreneurs. Many Chinese would see this phenomenon and would migrate from a “single track” system to a “dual track” system.

As noted by Mr. Chen Hai, when one examines the resilience and vitality of an economy, one needs to find out how entrepreneurs are split.

China’s large-scale organizational capabilities have been a crucial part of the country’s DNA since the formation of the PRC. This allows effective nationwide mobilization of resources, now augmented by modern management approaches and technology.

Traditional Chinese philosophy has also influenced President Xi Jinping, his vision of “Build a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind” draws its origins from ancient China, dating back over 2,000 years ago during the Zhou Dynasty (1046 BCE – 256 BCE) when the Chinese referred to their ideal world as “tianxia” (天下) or “all under heaven”. Professor Zhao Dingyang at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences conducted extensive research on this concept. Tianxia implies a world system that makes the world a political entity, a coexistent order with the world as an integrated political unit. To understand tianxia is to take the whole world as the unit of thinking to analyze issues, thereby transcending the modern mindset of nation-states. Tianxia is a world system founded on the ontology of coexistence.

To fully understand tianxia, we must examine issues from a global perspective and transcend the limitations of a modern nation-state mindset. Though an ideal, it remains a pillar of Chinese civilization.

At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, President Xi Jinping announced that Chinese modernization would be a crucial development concept to promote the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This concept encompasses the modernization of “a huge population, common prosperity for all, material and cultural-ethical advancement, harmony between humanity and nature, as well as peaceful development.” Notably, many of the core concepts are propositions derived from Chinese history, culture, and civilization, both traditional and modern.

The notion of “adhering to harmony between humanity and nature” emphasizes a sense of responsibility to form an interconnected community of life for humankind and nature. Humanity must respect, adapt to, and protect the natural world. As a traditional agricultural society, the Chinese have long understood and appreciated the importance of coexisting harmoniously with nature. This profound philosophy of “unity between humanity and nature” was summarized by Wang Yangming in the Ming Dynasty (early 15th century), encapsulating the Chinese perspective on peaceful coexistence with nature. This concept is similar to the notion of “sustainability” in the Western world today.

Exhibit 9: Highlights of Chinese Modernization

Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Gao Feng analysis

Despite China’s rich history, culture, and civilization, it is not reasonable to expect that the Chinese people have the solutions to all global challenges. Chinese society has gradually improved as it has experienced a diverse range of events, encompassing both successes and failures, unity and separation, and positive and negative developments.

In times of separation and division, when different powers competed for control, strategic thinking was crucial and required a comprehensive approach. Additionally, promoting an efficient governing structure across a vast territory during times of unity requires strong organizational capabilities and a well-designed governance system. Under such a situation, a mechanism for enabling capable individuals to serve society would be essential.

With its long history and vast territory, China has witnessed frequent military conflicts and power struggles that often led to power transfers between rulers. However, Chinese culture and civilization have always been intact; along the way, they have absorbed many new ideas. Its inclusiveness and diversity have become the key to its effectiveness.

Dynamism Continues

Like any system, China’s development model is subject to economic cycles. Since China’s reform began 40 years ago, its economy has sometimes experienced volatility due to external and internal factors. For instance, inflation hit 24.1% in the 1990s [14], and the 2008 global financial crisis triggered a RMB 4 trillion stimulus package. More recently, COVID-19 led to declines in consumer spending, real estate debt issues, and high unemployment.

Yet despite fluctuations, China has shown remarkable resilience – what New York Times’ Philip P. Pan described as a “Land That Failed to Fail”. Having worked in China for 30 years, I had first-hand experience with this vitality. BCG’s founding partner in China, Bob Ching, noted long ago that China’s “socialist market economy” was not a contradiction but a viable model. Although initially I did not quite understand what he meant, his point drove me to keep observing China’s progress. Over time, and with years of deep business experience, I began to understand what he meant.

No system is perfect, but the ability to self-correct against a set of principles, and a sound underlying structure, has helped China create a development model that can address myriad issues efficiently. This model has helped to generate fast growth, reducing economic and social volatility, and has created an overall and durable resilience.

Despite its overuse, the term “dynamism” more or less captures the essence of the Chinese way. The Chinese way is certainly not perfect but it has successfully driven China’s experiments, economic growth, and development over the last four decades. It is a unique capability that has arisen from the Chinese people’s collective will and strategic goals generated throughout history and complemented by China’s agile mechanisms in the global environment. And it’s worth noting that China did not start with a detailed blueprint. Still, China’s long and extensive history, culture and civilization have created a capacity for multiple streams of thought and a willingness to learn, adapt, and synthesize. The Chinese recognition that the world’s phenomena often consist of two apparently opposite forces, and being able to manage the interacting relationship properly, is often the key to finding a solution. This is what underlies China’s resilience and has been one of the keys to its success.

Epilogue

While writing this article, I was of course closely following the news about China’s current economic challenges including the property market issues and unemployment in the youth sector. Like any large economy, it’s quite natural that China should face such a wide range of problems. In fact, these issues should be expected given China’s size and complexity, and the very complicated and fluid geopolitical and economic situation that China now finds itself in.

There is no doubt that China will need to – and is well-prepared to – address these challenges. Some of them will be resolved rather easily with minor policy adjustments, while others may require deep and extensive changes and reforms. Needless to say, they will take some time.

What I describe in this article are the fundamental reasons how and why China works. Why has China proven time and time again to be so resilient? How has China overcome challenge upon challenge and remained strong, optimistic and open for business? Drawing upon my decades of experience in international business, I answer these complex questions.

Needless to say, there is doubt that China’s current economic challenges will provide yet another opportunity for China to demonstrate its great resilience. And, of course, new and unexpected challenges (and opportunities) will invariably pop up along the way. That’s just life.

My hope in writing this article is that I might provide insights and guidance to leaders of global businesses as they develop their corporate strategies with China playing an essential role. I believe that sharing my knowledge and experience regarding the underlying logic of how and why China works can, in some small way, contribute to the success of all businesses. This is good for China and good for the world.

References

  1. 10287.45 kilometers, Urban Rail Transportation Statistics and Analysis Report 2022, Sohu News (2023.04.01).https://www.sohu.com/a/661817139_121123909
  2. Recognition ceremony held for national poverty alleviation, Gov.cn (2021.02.05).https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-02/25/content_5588866.htm#1
  3.   The China story behind Apple’s $3 trillion valuation with Doug Guthrie, The China Project. https://thechinaproject.com/2022/01/07/the-china-story-behind-apples-3-trillion-valuation-with-doug-guthrie/
  4. This industry has reached a value of hundreds of billions. What has Hefei done correctly? STCN (2023.02.21).http://www.stcn.com/article/detail/798940.html
  5. How does Lenovo’s premium laptop assembly factory help Hefei’s economy take off, 163.com (2022.07.27).https://m.163.com/dy/article/HD93LDDN0553AZLI.html
  6. The finalized RMB 7 billion strategic investment agreement: why NIO relocates its HQ to Hefei, 21st Century Business Herald (2020.04.30).http://www.chinatopbrands.net/s/1450-5731-17124.html
  7. VW Anhui aims to keep on investing in Hefei with a total planned investment of RMB 23.1 billion, EVinChina (2023.06.01).http://www.evinchina.com/newsshow-3405.html
  8. VCGF: evolution and case study, Zhihu (2023.04.25).https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/624703525
  9. Lessons Learned on Government-Market Relationship, CNCnews (2016.08.02).http://theory.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0802/c401815-28604378.html
  10. The former PV giant’s chairman during the bankruptcy and restructuring period is behind bars, The Paper (2018.07.10). https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_2251702
  11. The dramatic story of Hongxin Semiconductor: a scam against government and banks by shareholders from a shell company, Tencent
  12. The Land That Failed to Fail by Philip P. Pan, The New York Times (nytimes.com) (2018.11.18). https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.html
  13. The Opposable Mind: How Successful Leaders Win Through Integrative Thinking by Roger L. Martin, Harvard Business Review Press (2009.7.13)
  14. Historical inflation and outlook, Yingda Securities (2021.05.11).https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202105121491224021_1.pdf?1620815825000.pdf

CGTN | Generating Economic Recovery in the Post-pandemic Era

By Edward Tse

2022-05-23

A recent article authored by Dr. Tse was published by CGTN on May 23, 2022. He shared his view on how the global economy can recover in the post-pandemic era and the role that the World Economic Forum can play.

The prolonged pandemic has brought about a great deal of economic challenges. Global economic growth recovered strongly last year at 5.5 percent, especially compared to the significant drop of 3.3 percent in 2020 due to the outbreak of the pandemic. According to the World Bank, growth is expected to slow down to 4.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023 due to less robust demand and fiscal and monetary support.

The pandemic has disrupted many global supply chains, impacted production, reduced travel and caused much anxiety among people across the world. The pandemic also brought about major changes in patterns of demand for products and services.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has unfortunately added much to disruptions and uncertainties to the environment that had already been severely impacted by the pandemic. Among other issues, supply of a range of commodities such as wheat, oil and gas have been disrupted, driving up inflation in many countries. In addition, the war has also damaged the relationships between many countries in the world.

How can we generate, and accelerate, economic recovery in the post-pandemic era? It will be a major undertaking and will require a multi-pronged approach. The World Economic Forum (WEF), being an independent international organization engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of societies in all parts of the world, will play an important role spearheading the economic recovery process.

Before the pandemic outbreak and for about three decades, the world has been going through a process of globalization wherein a natural division of labor across different economies based on each other’s comparative advantage ensured high-level of productivity and efficiency across the world. According to the World Bank, the world’s GDP increased threefold between 1990 and 2015, from $22.74 trillion in 1990 to $75.12 trillion in 2015. While some countries may believe that they have been disadvantaged by globalization, the entire world had substantially benefited from it overall.

Not only did globalization improve economic conditions in many countries across the world, but positive developments also took place, e.g., technological progress, innovations and entrepreneurship. Unfortunately, during the last couple of years, the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts have cast a shadow over the future of globalization. Many people are now advocating de-globalization instead.

Despite the current headwinds, I believe the right principles for driving a speedy economic recovery in the post-pandemic era is still globalization (albeit perhaps in a slightly different form), multilateralism and growth in global trade.

With the emergence of a multipolar global economic landscape where countries like China, India and other fast-developing countries have become, or are becoming, significant hubs for the demand of products and services, trade flow patterns have greatly evolved over the last several decades. Today and going forward, many of these countries will become major markets for goods and services.

With the focused efforts of some developed countries to “reshore” or build new manufacturing facilities especially in high-tech sectors, new sources of supply will also emerge, thus changing the global supply patterns. Nonetheless the fundamentals of economics and business that governed the first era of globalization will continue to apply to the new era. The main consideration will continue to be based on some basic business logic, i.e., who can provide the best combination of cost, quality, timeliness and reliability in supplies of products and services to other countries. Fundamentally, the economic scale and scope, as well as the coordination of various activities across evolving supply chains will continue to be critical factors in order to determine where supply chains are located and how they are implemented. The manner in which these factors will be optimized will also be driven by technological innovations along the way.

The world entered the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) a few years ago. Driven largely by the convergence of digital, biological, and physical innovations, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, Internet of Things (IoT), 3D printing, genetic engineering, quantum computing and other technologies, this revolution is taking place rapidly. Countries like China, the U.S., India and also certain European countries are all playing key roles in its development and applications.

The 4IR is more than a simple technology-driven change. This is an opportunity to help everyone, including leaders, policymakers and people from all income groups and countries, to harness convergent technologies to create an inclusive, people-centric future. Therefore, the 4IR has the potential to raise global income levels and facilitate economic recovery in the post-pandemic era.

In fact, before the current sentiment of anti-globalization and unilateralism surfaced, people around the world have long been expecting a ubiquitously inter-connected world where all can communicate across borders through a “network that means good for humanity.” While that vision may have been somewhat disrupted by the current headwinds, people’s fundamental needs have not changed. People still aspire for such ideals.

Therefore, it behooves political and business leaders of the world to come together to provide solutions that work for the lowest common denominator of humanity. Clearly there are issues that transcend national orders and all countries need to address them holistically. Climate change, pandemic control, AI ethics, data governance are some of the top priority issues.

The WEF with its status and leadership is in a natural position to take the lead in driving this framework and methodology forward. This will be an all-encompassing initiative and won’t be easy but that’s what the world needs. Doing it right and promptly means doing good for humanity.

CGTN | Boao Forum 2022

Boao Forum 2022: Bringing People Together For a Shared Future

Dr. Edward Tse, Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO, was interviewed by CGTN’s Zhao Jingzhu at eve of the Boao Forum 2022.

Editor’s note: Themed “The World in COVID-19 & Beyond: Working Together for Global Development and Shared Future,” the Boao Forum for Asia 2022 Annual Conference begins on April 20 in Boao, a coastal town in China’s southernmost Hainan Province. How will it promote post-pandemic development and collaborative development? What opportunities will it bring to the companies and countries in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond? 

CGTN: According to a report published by the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), vaccines are unfairly distributed among countries. How do you view the BFA’s call for global coordination to close the immunity gap between developed and developing countries?

Edward Tse: So today a big issue that we’re facing is actually the inequality of the degree of vaccination across different countries. And I think, on a global basis, we need to have a coordinated effort – especially from those countries have gone through the vaccination stages already – to try to help those countries who are not really up to speed with vaccinations yet. So I think the BFA this time is a very good forum for different countries to talk about how do we create this kind of coordinated effort so that more countries can benefit from vaccines that were developed by the more developed countries in the world.

So far, different countries have undertaken different approaches to try to contain the pandemic. I say today the world is still very much in the middle of the pandemic. No country really has fully recovered from the epidemic yet. Therefore, trying to contain and to arrest the pandemic as soon as possible is a very urgent and important imperative for all of us on this earth.

CGTN: How do you view multilateralism and international cooperation under the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recession?

Tse: Certainly the pandemic is hitting every country in the world. The virus doesn’t really know national borders. If we put arresting, or the containment, of the pandemic as a priority, it would require the collaboration across all the countries in the world. And this requires multilateralism, it requires countries coming together and view containing or fighting the pandemic as the most important purpose. And then countries need to find a way to work together. So, multilateralism and international collaboration are the key to fight the pandemic in my view.

There are countries able to develop vaccines and able to manufacture vaccines and so on. Many other countries are not able to do so, and therefore the countries who are able to manufacture and develop vaccines ought to find a way to work together (so) that they can supply the vaccines to those countries who really need them and really help them with the whole process of taking the vaccine. And in order to do that, there’s a lot of barriers that countries or companies involved would need to overcome.

For example, number one is tariffs… to what extent tariffs should be maintained when vaccines go from one country to another country. Second is that right now – especially with the new types of vaccines because they were relatively new inventions – therefore there’s a pretty high level of intellectual property rights being assigned to these vaccines. To a lot of other countries who are in a much worse economic situation, it is not possible for them to really mass produce these kinds of vaccines if the IP price is significant.

So perhaps there’s also a way for the countries to work together to try to figure out how can they deal with the intellectual property issues and so on. And of course, there’s also supply chain issues. Even if the countries are willing to supply vaccines from their country to other countries, then how do you actually transport supply and also get the vaccines ready for the receiving site. Those all require coordination across different countries.

So I see the international collaboration and multilateralism, as I mentioned, to the key in really trying to fight against this pandemic and to overcome what we call the um “vaccination divide” across different countries.

CGTN: What kind of opportunities do you think the BFA 2022 will bring to the companies and countries in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond?

Tse: I think the theme for BFA this time is to read each other and to enhance the collaboration of countries as well as companies across the board to try to fight the pandemic as quickly as possible. So, from that end, there’s a lot that we can work together. I think one of the biggest challenges that we’re now facing is the general economic conditions that’s being affected by the pandemic for over two years.

For this time for the BFA, representatives from different countries are gonna be together and perhaps there’s also quite a number of executives of companies. When they come together, they can talk about mutually how they can help each other to try to address some of the issues that they see; for example, on supply chain, in how the post-pandemic economy would look like, and how companies can work together to try to benefit each other in a new world order after the pandemic. The BFA will play a pivotal role for countries as well as companies who will come together during this occasion.

The world is now facing with a lot of uncertainty, a lot of volatility, partly because of the pandemic, partly because of the geopolitical conditions and perhaps in the extreme case with the war in Europe. A lot of governments, a lot of companies are in a very uncertain stage. A forum like BFA is a great opportunity for a country’s delegates and company delegates to come together to really talk it through, despite there may be differences in opinions and perspective on different things, there’s also an opportunity for people to come together and talk about issues that are all relevant, and also people can share the similar point of view. This kind of occasion is really important to try to break down some of the biases or the misinformation that has been generated so far. I hope the BFA would do a good job and try to help people, to bring the people together so that we can create and share a similar vision of a shared future.

China Daily | Push For ‘Unified National Market’ Gains Pace

Push For ‘Unified National Market’ Gains Pace As New Guidelines Consolidate High-level Opening

By Edward Tse

2022-04-13

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by China Daily on April 13.

The Chinese government’s recent guidelines for accelerating the building of a unified national market envision discontinuation of local protection and market fragmentation to unblock key sticking points that weigh on the growth of the economy. This is a part of a wide-ranging push for an effectively regulated, competitive and fully open market across the country.

The new guidelines unveiled on April 10 will allow entrepreneurs to fully exploit advantages of China’s ultra-large domestic market, which will not only accelerate the building of a high-standard market ecosystem and expand opening-up to the outside world but shall also push in-depth reforms and high-quality development.

A unified national market will discontinue local protection and facilitate smooth flow of goods and services throughout the country. Moreover, it is expected to enhance efficiency and expand the scale of China’s domestic market.

The key initiatives are implementation of a unified market access system and development of a unified domestic market for productivity factors and resources to provide access to both domestic and foreign businesses, promote fair competition, and enhance predictability and stability of rules governing the market.

The way we understand it, Beijing has been working on such policies for some time, and official announcement of this policy must be viewed from a holistic standpoint.

While China has been undergoing reform and opening-up for more than four decades, many remnants from its old economic system still linger. Fragmentation of the market into many localities governed by local rules and regulations that offer protection for the local has been the norm. While progress has been made over the years in removing bottlenecks that impede growth, China, strictly speaking, has not become a unified market so far.

With the changes in the environment and the readiness of internal drivers, it is now possible and desirable to launch this new policy. Additionally, global geopolitics, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the pandemic and other external factors have had an impact on China’s role in global business and trade has become somewhat uncertain.

In order to generate the needed growth in its economy, China needs to ensure stability in its internal business and trade, or in the Chinese way of saying, the “internal circulation”.

China is taking concrete steps to accelerate the building of a unified domestic market that is efficient, rules-based and open and encourages fair competition amid pressures emanating from a complicated and grim external environment and COVID-related apprehensions.

This is the country’s latest move to deepen market-oriented reforms and inject more dynamism into market entities, to propel sustainable growth of both domestic and foreign businesses.

In order to build a strong and unified domestic market, it is essential to remove market entry barriers for domestic and foreign companies, build an open market system and promote both internal and external movement of goods and services.

With the fast development of technology in China in recent years, it is now possible to leverage technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology to break down barriers between local areas of interest.

In this context, companies and localities will need to think about their respective development strategies based on their competitive advantages, and not some pre-defined positional advantages.

For a unified market to take place properly, the government needs to make sure that the playing field is level and fair for all. Competition should be welcome and the rules of the game should be fair and transparent.

To this end, we can expect even larger market access for private-sector and foreign companies. This will foster further competition and innovation in China.

The idea of a unified national market has been in the works for some time. In fact, over the years, many foreign companies have questioned whether China was a national market or a series of local markets.

In the Chinese way, Beijing had begun experimenting with this policy at a regional level, in clusters as the Yangtze River Delta, the Jing-Jin-Ji (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) region and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Experience from these pilot areas formed the basis for the new national policy.

Another goal is to reduce the cost of transactions by facilitating the market-oriented allocation of production factors and helping circulation of goods and services.

China will further unify the basic systems and rules, including those for property rights protection, market access, fair competition and social credit.

Facilities and platforms in different sectors, including logistics, deal information and transaction platforms, should be seamlessly connected across the country. A unified market will be established for various production factors, including land, labor, capital, technology, data and energy.

In addition, unified standards for goods and services will be set up. Supervision, regulation and law enforcement will be more standardized with the aim of breaking down local protection and regional barriers to ensure open and fair competition.

Representatives of some companies we spoke to mentioned that they could not quite get the reasons for and substance of this new policy. This is at least partly due to the way the policy was presented.

Some people thought this new policy is taking China back to its State-planning approach. While the State will certainly play an important role under this new policy, it will be largely the private-sector enterprises and foreign companies who will take part in the new game. Rules-based competition will become more prevalent and the overall efficiency of the entire Chinese economy should improve.

Overall, the building of a unified nationwide market plays a decisive role in balancing resource allocation, promoting a more level playing field and revitalizing growth across the country as a whole.

Along with the recent efforts at cracking down on monopolies, unfair competition, local protectionism and opening-up of industries, the new policy is also expected to create a more level playing field with a more unified and clear approach for both local and foreign players. The guidelines’ call for opening-up will go a long way to improve not only Chinese but also global supply chains and innovation chains for greater international economic activity.

China Daily | Nation Continues to Offer Promising Opportunities

By Edward Tse

2022-3-15

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by China Daily on March 15.

Among multinational corporations, a sense of unease with today’s conflicts and sanctions is understandable, as they need to address short-term fluctuations and at the same time take an informed and confident view of the bigger picture.

Because of China’s important role in international affairs as the world’s second-largest economy and potentially the largest market in the world, it is providing an anchor amid global uncertainties.

China is the largest trading partner of many countries and is the epicenter of many global supply chains. It became the largest trading nation in 2013, and its largest trade partners include the European Union and the United States as well as geographical neighbors Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea.

China is a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a regional trade agreement with 15 countries that account for 30 percent of the world’s population and 30 percent of its GDP. The RCEP is the world’s largest free-trade agreement.

China’s quickly burgeoning middle-income population has become a substantial consumer of goods and services. According to the nation’s National Development and Reform Commission, China’s middle-income population has exceeded 400 million, with increasing market potential for imports.

China has consistently been opening up market access for foreign companies. The nation’s foreign direct investment inflows are now the largest in the world, and foreign companies are being provided with even wider access. In 2020, as the coronavirus outbreak spread across the world, FDI inflows into China grew to $163 billion, compared with $134 billion into the United States.

China has successfully shed its copycat image and is now viewed for its innovation. It sets its own standards in technology protocol, the creation of new business models and pioneering applications of the central bank digital currency. Its ability to define new lanes of innovation is becoming increasingly profound. Barring extreme unforeseen events, China’s role in global business and commerce is unlikely to diminish.

China’s internal policy focusing on technological innovations should structurally shift the patterns of global business and commerce going forward.

Its effective governance system, well-functioning clusters of industry segments and suppliers, and a general sense of “can do” attitude make global supply chains in China even more important for the world economy.

However, apprehensions of some degree of decoupling and sanctions could complicate global supply chains. In the near future, decoupling, recoupling and new couplings will likely generate new patterns of global supply chains. However, total decoupling is highly inconceivable.

Globalization just may enter a new era. China now strives to ensure that domestic demand and supply reinforce each other, while it continues to pursue external trade. These shifts in emphasis will be the main drivers of globalization going forward.

China is searching for its own form of modernity, with Chinese characteristics. Its modernity combines both the old and the new, Chinese and non-Chinese thought, collectivism and individualism, and ideology and pragmatism. It is inclusive in nature and yet allows for experimentation.

Achieving these goals will take time and require stability, strategic focus and composure. All of these will lead China to play an even larger and more important role in the world economy.

The key to any sound strategy is the ability of leaders to develop a clear and informed view of the future and guide future growth on the basis of synthesis of the past and the present.

Amid the current global turbulence, multinational corporations need to be vigilant and be able to visualize China’s role in the world going forward. A growing number of them are realizing that their global strategy has to have China at its core in the new era.

SCMP | Vision for Winning

By Edward Tse

2022-1-28

Originally published by South China Morning Post with title “Apple and Tesla’s Success in China Shows Sino-US Cooperation Can Be a Win-win” on January 28, 2022. All rights reserved.

The Belfer Center at Harvard University’s Kennedy School released a paper in December titled “The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs the US”, analysing the technological status of the two giant economies.

Harvard professor Graham Allison, lead author of the report, and Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, also published an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal on the subject. They contend that China has already surpassed the US in areas like artificial intelligence, 5G, quantum information science, semiconductors, biotechnology and green energy.

The study identified China’s “whole-of-society” approach as the differentiator. But how does this accelerate China’s technological development? The US needs a comprehensive understanding of what has driven China’s innovation abilities in general, so policymakers can develop a more strategic response.

China’s five-year plans lay out the country’s priorities and responses to both domestic and external changes. While US policymakers have long scoffed at China’s top-down planning system, these directives have generally delivered good outcomes, particularly in the past couple of decades.

Today Schmidt insists China has surpassed the US in AI and this is, coincidentally, an area China started focusing on over a decade ago.

The recent US sanctions on a range of technology, such as high-end semiconductor chips, have triggered faster domestic development in China. Many in the world expect China to catch up with the West, Taiwan and Korea in high-end chips in the not-so-distant future.

Along the way, the Chinese government has released a report on the digital economy, covering the development of digital infrastructure (especially for big data) and key technologies, and the digital transformation of traditional industries and public services, over the next five years.

Government industrial policy is nothing new. President Franklin Roosevelt revitalised the US economy after the Great Depression with the policy document known as the New Deal. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore grew rapidly during the 1970s and 1980s by defining their respective industrial policies and priorities.

While China pursues top-down planning policies, it also nurtures dynamic private-sector enterprises along with state-owned enterprises, creating a unique, dual economic structure.

SOEs provide public goods, often going beyond the narrow definition of economic returns to fulfil their social responsibilities. These public goods and infrastructure in turn support all types of enterprises, foreign and domestic, creating a better ecosystem for businesses in China.

In addition, local governments function as a link between the central government and private enterprises, channelling resources according to Beijing’s priorities while supporting businesses through funding, the incubation of start-ups and public-private partnerships. This layered approach ensures the nation’s resources are used to meet the most critical objectives, providing cohesion and resilience.

Why and how did this come about? Since the end of the First Opium War in 1842, Chinese elites have been in deep reflection about how to rebuild China. They knew that science and technology, among other tools, would be key for revitalising the nation.

China is an ancient civilisation that has developed, fine-tuned and learned from a wide range of philosophies over time. This inclusive nature, coupled with absorption of Western political ideas such as capitalism and Marxism, serves as the backbone to China’s modern thinking.

At the centennial anniversary of the Communist Party of China, President Xi Jinping repeatedly emphasised the theme “To learn from history and build a better future”. As China searches for its modernity with Chinese characteristics, this mindset is manifesting itself in everything it does.

In the face of technology sanctions, China must move to neutralise such threats. Given its clearly stated and justifiable objectives and goals, people and businesses have been willing to go along with the government’s plans and policies.

Western multinational corporations operating in China understand this approach much better than politicians. Doug Guthrie, formerly of Apple University, recently underscored why being in China was so critical for the success of Apple.

As the hub of Apple’s global supply chain, China’s clusters of suppliers, diligent workers and support from local governments created a structure offering unparalleled reliability, optimised cost, quality and timeliness.

Apple and Chinese partners co-created the intellectual property needed for Apple products, leading to a win-win situation. Apple has since become the world’s first business to be valued at over US$3 trillion.

The same can be said for Tesla and Nvidia. When Tesla was having trouble in the US back in 2019, the Chinese government cleared its new gigafactory in Shanghai with a US$1.4 billion loan from several Chinese state-owned banks. That turned Tesla’s fate around.

Today Tesla is the top-selling electric car brand in China and half of Tesla’s global deliveries are from Tesla’s Shanghai plant.

Similarly, US semiconductor company Nvidia benefited immensely from the massive demand for automotive chips in China, the world’s largest automotive market.

Ali Kani, Nvidia’s vice-president, stressed the importance of China’s dynamic electric vehicles sector to the company’s efforts to expand its global automotive business, which has projected revenues of US$8 billion over the next six years.

Many US tech companies have benefited from being part of the Chinese economy and understand the effectiveness of the Chinese approach to governance. These companies share one thing in common: they see working with China as a win-win for both sides.

The same applies at a national level. While the Harvard Belfer study calls the US-China relationship in technology a “rivalry”, perhaps a more constructive way to think about it would be to compete where necessary but collaborate where appropriate.

After all, technology can improve human lives; it should be the intrinsic responsibility of the big powers to advance that cause for the benefit of humanity.

China Daily | New Era of Chinese Innovation Marks Its Transition

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by China Daily on January 16.

Most people now recognize China’s ability to innovate and its status as a top digital economy in the world. Since the late 2000s, many companies have taken advantage of the growing penetration of wireless internet in China to develop innovative business models. With the emergence of newer disruptive technologies such as 5G, AI, blockchain and cloud computing, the nation has entered a new phase of technological innovation.

Coupled with the government’s latest policies announced as part of the 14th Five Year Plan, technological self-sufficiency has become a national imperative for the Chinese. To that end, the focus of innovation is now being shifted from consumer internet-driven to “hard tech” areas such as high-end semiconductor chips, precision and intelligent manufacturing, robotics, life sciences and others. In fintech, the central bank digital currency, or CBDC, has also become a priority.

Not too long ago, products made by Chinese companies were ridiculed as “shanzhai”, portrayed to be of low quality and lacking originality. Few expected the Chinese to turn around so quickly and become innovators in their own right. This has prompted Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, to say, “(China’s) technology is generations ahead of what is possible in the West.”

This new era is epitomized not only by what technologies are being adopted or in which sectors innovations are happening, but also how China is shifting from being a technology standards follower to one setting global standards.

There are four ways in which the Chinese are beginning to set new standards. The first is in technology protocol setting, manifested currently in 5G rollout. The second is creating new innovative business models previously unseen. The third is transformation of industries by creating completely new sectors. And finally, the pioneering applications of the CBDC.

In technology protocol setting, Chinese companies such as Huawei have been leading the world, particularly in setting the standards for 5G. This technology has had a profound impact on many industries accelerating growth and development. For instance, 5G is enabling more advanced autonomous driving, remote diagnostics and operations, and digital twins.

In July 2020, during the 5G standard competition, the 3GPP 5G technology that Huawei invented was officially declared as the only international mobile communication technology standard by the International Telecommunication Union. By the end of 2023, 30 key industry standards are set to be finalized.

Chinese innovators have also developed new business models that set “standard” practices for others to follow. Examples include Tik Tok, a video-focused social media app; Taobao and JD.com, two major e-commerce players; and Meituan a food delivery app.

In 2021, Tik Tok overtook Google as the world’s most visited website. Its vast following suggests a strong sense of affinity that the app is able to generate with its users. Using AI-driven algorithms, Tik Tok and its domestic China twin Douyin assess users’ needs and push “tailor-made” content in areas that users are interested in, thus increasing the conversion rate for its advertising efforts. The powerful AI algorithms that optimize content creation, curation and recommendation are key factors behind Tik Tok and Douyin’s great success.

Tik Tok and Douyin, along with other social commerce apps such as Bilibili, Kuaishou and Little Red Book, have become major sales channels for consumer products. At the same time, Key Opinion Leaders, or KOLs, have revolutionized modern-day sales and marketing. Chinese as well as foreign companies have caught on to the trend with cosmetics brands such as Lancome and Estee Lauder leveraging KOLs and using social commerce in China.

China is also redefining standards for entire industries. A good example is the auto and mobility sector. The pioneering development of the connected digital economy has resulted in automotive companies rethinking their products, and entirely new breeds of mobility players have emerged. Concurrently, electric vehicle technology has been taking off and from early on, the Chinese government issued policies to encourage the development of new energy vehicles.

Along the way, cities across China were embedding intelligence in the infrastructure they were building for smart cities. This in turn generated synergistic effects which led to emergence of the new breed of smart and connected new energy vehicles that are becoming increasingly autonomous. Not only design and manufacturing, but the entire industry value chain has been disrupted as the role of software has become critical.

Foreign automakers have also recognized the innovation happening in China. For Ford, the China Innovation Plan and Smart Technology Plan are a core part of its “China 2.0 Strategy.”

China is the first major economy to develop and deploy a CBDC, an electronic record of a country’s official currency. CBDC will simplify cross-border payments and implementation of monetary and fiscal policy, and promote financial inclusion in the economy by bringing the unbanked into the financial system. While several countries are developing their own digital currencies, China is well positioned to take the lead with the digital yuan.

In April 2020, digital yuan pilot programs were launched in four cities. The digital currency’s debut was the culmination of a six-year journey that began when China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced research on a “Digital Currency/Electronic Payment” system in 2014. Today, digital yuan pilots are growing rapidly in scope and size.

The use of digital yuan could bring significant economic and political benefits to China, which could also help drive internationalization of the Chinese currency over time.

As China joins others in setting standards, its ability to create and define “new lanes of innovation” will become even more profound. This signifies the coming of a new era not only in China but also increasingly for the rest of the world.

How Technology Can Enhance Connectivity Across the GBA

By Edward Tse

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse will be published by China Daily in December 2021.

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a national level strategic imperative. It aims to deepen cooperation among the 11 cities in the region, leveraging comparative advantages of each while facilitating integration of the region’s economic development.

The GBA is unique as it includes three jurisdictions that are separated by physical borders. The connectivity for the flow of people, goods, capital and information, is critical for the functioning of the Greater Bay Area.

Financial services are one area where increased connectivity is all too evident. A series of programs instituted over the last several years have enabled investments across borders within the area. The Stock Connect and Bond Connect schemes were launched in 2014 and 2017 respectively, facilitating the flow of investment between Hong Kong and the mainland in stock and bond markets. Following the success of these programs, Wealth Management Connect, the first cross border scheme focused solely on the Greater Bay Area has been launched in October 2021, further opening up the mainland’s financial market while promoting economic integration in the region.

As China has now entered the new era powered by new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, blockchain and cloud computing, the GBA is leading the way in developing applications of these new technologies. Emerging innovations will further enable connectivity beyond what has been possible hitherto. During and after the pandemic, new patterns of business models have emerged along the way. These would span areas such as the next generation of smart cities and digitalization of traditionally offline industries such as healthcare.

The GBA has also become a hotspot for fintech innovation. Using blockchain enabled distributed ledger technology (DLT), integration of multiple services is now possible. One example is iShenZhen, a digital identity verification system in Shenzhen, which leverages DLT, big data and AI, to offer financial systems designed to function seamlessly across borders, furthering the goal of a synergized region.

China is also at the forefront of central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and application. The GBA is among the first to test China’s new digital currency. In October 2020, Shenzhen launched a digital currency trial, releasing virtual red packets to the public totaling 10 million yuan (US$1.47 million). These pilots continue to strengthen the GBA’s fintech infrastructure, while also preparing the region for adopting digital currencies and reap the key benefits of transparency and convenience.

Business models across the GBA are also being transformed. In healthcare, “Internet + Healthcare” platforms such as WeDoctor are helping GBA residents obtain online and offline one-stop “remote-diagnosis, treatment, and post-treatment” services through various channels conveniently. With the accelerated interconnectivity of health information, digital healthcare operations and cooperation in the region will become increasingly prevalent.

For people and goods movement, physical infrastructure (bridges and highways) and institutional infrastructure (systems and information) continue to integrate. The opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and the comprehensive upgrade of other transportation infrastructure (airports, highways and high-speed rail networks) have helped further connect cities within the GBA. Meanwhile, autonomous driving players like AutoX, We Ride and Baidu’s Apollo are making headway in transforming transportation in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, making it more intelligent and autonomous, and paving the way for smart transportation systems throughout the GBA. Similar potential exists in the intelligent, connected and increasingly autonomous commercial vehicle sector.

In manufacturing, the GBA is navigating the road towards becoming an intelligent, connected, and distributed manufacturing hub. By 2022, increasingly, technologies in digital and automation aspects as well as data and cloud computing will re-define how manufacturing happens. As Hong Kong capitalizes on the opportunity to further its “re-industrialization” initiative, it will have the opportunity to leapfrog into a new manufacturing set-up and ecosystem where not everything needs to be physically located in Hong Kong, i.e., much can be in other GBA cities. Connectivity through technology will accelerate Hong Kong’s ability to re-build its position in manufacturing, and that will manifest in a new form.

Cities within the GBA are also becoming smarter, with the application of new technologies laying the foundation of digital infrastructure. Guangzhou, for example, is building a “digital twin city” covering key features of situational awareness, operations monitoring and real-time management. As cities become smarter, their ability to provide support in connecting key urban functions such as epidemic prevention and control is getting enhanced.

However, with greater connectivity come new challenges. The massive amounts of data being generated need comprehensive data security measures. The newly issued Data Security Law (DSL) and the Personal Information Protection Law (PIPL) are the first steps toward building legal support for the digital economy’s development. Cross-border data should be treated as a high priority for the GBA’s integrated development. Regulatory bodies across the borders must collaborate to form the rules and mechanisms for cross-border data management and security standards. Pilot programs for allowing cross-border data flows should be encouraged and undertaken.

Enhancing the connectivity within the GBA will be the key to it becoming a world leading region. Connectivity across multiple areas such as smart cities, manufacturing hubs, mobility and health care delivery boosts economic productivity and living standards. The GBA’s unique positioning makes it a role model to be adapted across China and potentially other parts of the world.

【今日语录】November 22nd

As the China context continues to evolve, the profile of the foreigner in China will also evolve. Those who will contribute to and benefit from China’s development will be those who bring hard-core knowledge on science, technology and innovation. And China will offer the world’s leading laboratory for these people to make progress perhaps beyond what they could have in their home countries. It will create win-wins. These foreigners will be respected.

China Daily | 5G is Enabling More Innovations

By Edward Tse

2021-11-25

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by China Daily on November 25.

The world in general, and China in particular, is entering into a new era of technological innovations enabled by not only 5G technology, but also artificial intelligence, blockchain and cloud computing.

Though 5G is still at the early stage of commercialization, the momentum and investments being made by industry players and governments around the globe are truly massive.

Over the next few years, the process of digital transformation is expected to undergo a new wave of innovation and significant acceleration because of 5G, AI, blockchain, cloud computing and other technologies.

According to the latest report by the Global Mobile Suppliers Association, 169 operators in 70 countries and territories have already launched 5G services. Total deployment of 5G base stations globally exceeded 1.02 million as of December 2020, and this number is expected to double to 2.1 million by the end of this year.

In the meantime, according to research by J.P. Morgan, the total number of 5G users in the world had exceeded 225 million as of the end of 2020. The number is expected to reach 3 billion by 2025.

China is at the forefront of development and adoption of 5G. China had 718,000 5G base stations as of December last year, almost six times the number of stations compared with runner-up South Korea.

At the same time, the number of 5G users in China has exceeded 200 million, versus a global total of 225 million, with a third of all 5G patents owned by China, according to Nikkei Asia.

5G will enable a wide range of applications in the context of “all-scenario intelligent connectivity” or simply an “all-scenario internet”.This means the emergence of ubiquitous intelligent connectivity across people, devices and machines. 5G will also play a role in driving development in areas like augmented reality, remote medical care, internet-of-things and “vehicle-and-road cooperation”.

Applications of 5G are also spreading in the industrial sector, where flexible production and smart manufacturing is taking place, in the healthcare sector where remote monitoring, remote consultation and instruction as well as remote operations are now possible, and in the pan-entertainment sector, in which cloud gaming and high-definition video services are becoming a reality.

As China embarks on its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), in which technological innovation is the key goal, and as it starts to implement key policies such as common prosperity, rural vitalization, carbon neutrality and dual circulation, 5G applications will play crucial roles in helping to drive these policies and implementations.

A very hot topic now is the quick development of the “metaverse”, which is a collective virtual shared space, created by convergence of virtually enhanced physical reality and physically persistent virtual space.

It mixes technologies such as augmented reality, virtual reality, mixed reality and brain-computer interface to create immersive and interactive experiences for the users, and functions that were unimaginable in the past.

The technology is nascent. However, a large number of leading companies have already expressed strong interest in getting into this space. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that his company will imminently be changing its name to Meta to indicate its growing focus on the metaverse.

Other leading tech companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Roblox have all announced their new focus on the metaverse space.

5G and AI are the key enablers of the commercialization of the metaverse. In order to connect to the metaverse, people will need connectivity speeds running into the hundreds of megabits per second that only 5G can deliver.

In the future, 5G could remove the need for devices’ heat-generating components and bring down the cooling and power needs.

On the consumer side, 5G could also stimulate new demand. The gradual enrichment of consumption patterns will promote major changes in user experience requirements and may further lead to new industries or new business models.

Like many other aspects of businesses these days, commercialization of 5G will be somewhat affected by geopolitics as well as issues such as sovereign regulation of data security. These aspects could complicate commercialization of 5G to some extent, as the pursuit of connectivity continues. As such, companies need to incorporate these considerations into the formulation of their business strategies going forward.

5G, along with other technologies, has created a new inflection point in innovations. It will breed major opportunities for innovation across a wide range of sectors.

It will also require much more customer support along its entire value chain, all the way from R&D and design to manufacturing and support and services. Very exciting times are ahead as we see a totally new game being created.

Caixin | Data Security Becomes a Core Issue

Opinion: Data Security Becomes a Core Issue for Doing Business in China


By Edward Tse

2021-11-03

Originally published by Caixin Global on November 3, 2021.

As many people know, China is now a major digital economy. By the end of 2020, almost a billion people had access to the internet in China. WeChat, China’s largest social media platform, surpassed 1.2 billion monthly active users in 2020, and Douyin, the Chinese twin of TikTok, now has over 600 million daily active users.

Meanwhile, over 700 million monthly users now visit e-commerce platform Pinduoduo. Alibaba-affiliated Alipay and Tencent’s WeChat Pay — the domestic e-payments giants that pioneered new payment technologies using QR codes — currently process about 95% of the digital payments market in China.

Data is being generated in China at a whirlwind pace. According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the total amount of data generated in the country went up from 2.3 zettabytes in 2017 to 3.9 zettabytes in 2019, and it is continuing to grow.

Back in 2015, Jack Ma, co-founder and then-executive chairman of Alibaba proclaimed: “We are entering a new energy era. In this era, the core resource is no longer oil, but data.” Since the wireless internet was first introduced in China, entrepreneurs have been quick to leverage it to build business models that rest on the gathering and usage of data. To this end, quite a number of successful tech platforms have emerged. Some like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Tencent Holding Ltd. and Bytedance Inc. have made it to the big league on a global basis.

These companies typically build their business models on a number of pillars enabled by data. The first is their ubiquity in connecting to their users through vast amounts of data. Apps such as the ones mentioned above have very large numbers of frequent users. Second is their ability to focus on each user on the data set on a “segment-of-one” basis using their algorithms. Many of these companies were able to expand very fast mainly because China didn’t have many regulations on data gathering and usage. The ingenuity of the entrepreneurs coupled with the prevalence of pain points in Chinese society allowed many of these companies to grow. Some of them were able to become “exponential organizations.”

Over time, issues related to data security began to surface in several areas. One typical question regulators and companies are asking is related to the ownership of the data. Usually, there are multiple stakeholders involved in the data value cycle, all of which might attempt to claim ownership of the data because, for instance, they created or generated data, or because they use, compile, select, structure, re-format, enrich, analyze, purchase, or add value to the data.

The second is data privacy. Keeping private data and sensitive information safe is paramount. But it is difficult to identify what data is considered private, what data can be shared and what data cannot be shared. And the third is data monopoly. Internet companies possess the personal data of millions of users, but to what extent they can actually manipulate the data by using sophisticated algorithms for their benefit is still a grey area.

Along the way, several events have exemplified the severity of these issues. In August 2020, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) fined two of the country’s biggest state-owned banks, China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd. and Bank of Communications Co. Ltd., for failing to protect the personal data of their credit card customers. In order to prevent risks regarding national data security, China’s internet regulator has also ordered Didi Chuxing Technology Co. Ltd., a leading ride-hailing company in China, to stop signing up new users. Didi’s apps were forced off major app stores for two days after its IPO in July 2021. With China’s continuing cybersecurity reviews, rules for overseas listings have been tightened, and companies like the ones behind Keep, a Chinese sports-oriented social platform, and Ximalaya FM, the largest podcast platform in China, have recently canceled plans for U.S. IPOs.

Three major pieces of legislation in China have set the cornerstones for addressing issues related to data security. In June 2017, China implemented the Cybersecurity Law (CSL), which acts as the baseline for maintaining network security. The law requires that data be stored within China and that organizations and network operators submit to government-conducted security checks. In order to further protect national data security and the public interest, the Data Security Law (DSL), which took effect on Sept. 1, requires all companies in China to classify the data they handle into different categories and prescribes how such data is to be stored and transferred to other parties. On Aug. 20, China also passed the Personal Information Protection Law (PIPL), which took effect on Nov. 1. This new law imposes restraints on data collection and the transfer of personal information, and has an extraterritorial effect for companies both inside and outside of China. Once effective, the PIPL will work together with the CSL and the DSL to establish a broader regulatory architecture governing cybersecurity and data privacy protection in China.

Against this backdrop, companies are concerned about a number of key questions. Foreign-owned multinational corporations (MNC) are concerned about how to manage data across different regions, both in their home countries and in China, as well as cross-border data transfers, in compliance with the new data laws. For domestic companies planning to list overseas, strategic plans need to be put in place to comply with data security regulations. Both need to figure out how to use data to generate competitive advantages while staying away from the “red lines.”

These regulations are driving MNCs to set up research and development or innovation centers at their headquarters, increasingly in China. For MNCs, the way to operate in China has evolved quite a bit, particularly since global geopolitics started to undergo a significant shift. Data security has become a key issue that they are often not well prepared for. China has become not only a market or supply chain hub, but also a source of knowledge and inspiration because of intensive innovation. A key enabler of this is the increasing divergence in the speed, intensity and degree of sophistication of the digital infrastructure that China is building compared with other parts of the world.

Looking from a strategic standpoint, what could happen in the next few years? The big questions are where the data should be stored and secured, and where and with whom can they be shared with for the benefit of the company? Where do you draw the line? The DSL and PIPL will change how companies think about running a business in China. A lot of changes for management systems and processes as well as organizational structure will likely take place.

Looking forward, humanity expects to be even more connected. At the same time, local requirements for data sovereignty will also come to the fore. Business models will become more complicated. Those who can figure out the new game faster and better than others will likely generate new sources of competitive advantages along the way. These realities are challenging the minds of corporate executives and strategists the world over.

China Daily | China, US to Play Key Roles in New Era

China, US to Play Key Roles in New Era of Globalization


By Edward Tse

2021-10-27

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by China Daily on October 27.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, in a speech on Oct 4, said that instead of the decoupling of the United States and China, perhaps people can start thinking about “recoupling”, indicating that the notion of decoupling is either over or losing relevance.

The administration of former US president Donald Trump imposed or threatened to impose a range of measures that some viewed as precursory to the two countries decoupling in terms of economy, trade and technology. These measures included putting a number of Chinese tech companies, such as Huawei, SenseTime and Hikvision, on an “entity list” and limiting their business with the US.

This was intended to bar Chinese participation in the US communications network and threatened the US operations of Chinese companies such as TikTok, WeChat and Xiaomi.

At the height of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in early 2020, many expected a large number of foreign companies, particularly US companies, to leave China in droves. These people called this expected phenomenon “de-Sinicization”.

However, a media report said US-China bilateral trade reached $630 billion in 2020, a 16.4 percent year-on-year increase. In the first six months of 2021, it grew 45.7 percent year-on-year to $341 billion.

In a survey by the Shanghai American Chamber of Commerce released in September, 72 percent of 125 respondents with manufacturing operations in China said they had no plans to move any production out of China in the next three years.

Separately, Samantha Vortherms, assistant professor of political science at the University of California, Irvine, and Jiakun Jack Zhang, assistant professor of East Asian politics at the University of Kansas, found that the US-China trade war had not prompted US businesses to leave the Chinese market.

The record foreign direct investment flow into China in 2020 indicates that businesses in both countries remain deeply integrated with each other. “The degree of decoupling, measured by foreign direct investment, has been greater in the minds of politicians and pundits than the reality of firms in China,” the Shanghai American Chamber of Commerce said in its annual China Business Report.

Moreover, various sectors have reacted to the driving forces in very different ways.

While the US has restrained Huawei from participating in the building of the 5G communications network in its domestic market, US tech companies can still work with Huawei in international 5G standards development activities.

In the semiconductor industry, both the Chinese mainland and the US are trying to strengthen their own semiconductor value chains, with key players such as Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung setting up new manufacturing plants outside of their home bases. Key parts and components producers are looking at new strategies because of the quickly shifting global landscape.

Global automakers need to consider two systems-one China-centric and one US-centric-as the speed, intensity and sophistication of smart infrastructure being built by China and the US continue to diverge.

However, in industries such as agriculture and food, globalization will likely expand. China’s growing middle-income group means increasing demand and higher requirements for nutritious food. This demand would have to be met partially with sourcing from abroad.

While the past three decades of globalization have greatly reshaped the world, the fundamental nature of globalization is changing in major ways.

In the first era of globalization, the West was the major center of demand, and China was the major source of supply for a wide range of products.

While this continued in globalization’s next phase, China’s rapidly growing middle-income group and the drive for upgrading business capabilities are making it a center of demand as well as supply.

Hence, the “dual circulation” paradigm-in which the domestic market is the mainstay and the domestic and foreign markets reinforce each other-is emerging, consistent with the new economic policy. Regional trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will expand the “internal circulation”.

While these will probably be the key themes going forward, a certain amount of regionalization or localization of supply chains could also take place, and perhaps a certain degree of “re-shoring” of manufacturing to the US.

Will any decoupling between the US and China occur?

As long as US sanctions on some of the Chinese tech companies remain, some degree of decoupling will continue.

Data security is increasingly viewed as a national security issue. As such, the US and China will expect businesses operating in their respective jurisdictions to comply with their internal regulations, leading to some degree of decoupling.

In addition, the increasing divergence of the intensity and sophistication of the two countries’ digital infrastructures would mean some companies will have to follow different strategies.

However, the world is being driven into a new era of globalization, in which both the US and China, the world’s top two economies, will play critical roles, collaborating in some cases and competing in others.

As humanity searches for greater interconnectivity, decoupling would not be fully aligned with that trend. In many aspects, there never really was any decoupling, so there is no need for recoupling.

In some specific cases, decoupling or partial decoupling did happen, and as US Trade Representative Tai said, perhaps it is now time for recoupling.

In the increasingly interconnected world, a simplistic notion of decoupling does not make much sense, and it will not happen. Going forward, the US-China relationship will become much more intricate and sophisticated, and win-win cooperation will be optimal.

China Daily | Decoupling vs Recoupling

Decoupling vs Recoupling: US-China Ties to Become More Intricate and Interconnected

By Edward Tse

2021-10-14

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by China Daily on October 14.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, in a speech on Oct 4, said that instead of the decoupling of the United States and China, perhaps people can start thinking about “recoupling”, indicating that the notion of decoupling is either over or is losing relevance.

Is she right? Did decoupling ever happen? If so, to what extent and will it continue to happen in the future? What are the implications for businesses?

The Trump administration imposed or threatened to impose a range of measures that some viewed as precursory to the two countries decoupling in economic, trade and technology terms. These measures included putting a number of Chinese tech companies, such as Huawei, SenseTime and Hikvision, on an “entity list” and imposing restraints on them in doing business with the US.

Besides, there was the threat of “cleaning the network” – barring Chinese participation in the US communications network, threatening US operations of some Chinese firms such as TikTok, WeChat and Xiaomi.

At the height of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in the beginning of 2020, many expected a large number of foreign companies, particularly US companies, to leave China in droves. These people called this expected phenomenon “de-sinicization”.

Let us examine what has happened since then.

According to a recent Financial Times report, inflow of funds to China has reached a new record. Cumulative foreign direct investment has risen from $587 billion in 2010 to $1.9 trillion in 2020. Although global FDI flows fell 35 percent to $1 trillion last year, FDI inflows into China still rose from $141 billion to $149 billion.

Similarly, US-China bilateral trade reached $630 billion in 2020, a 16.4 percent increase over 2019. In the first six months of 2021, it grew 45.7 percent year-on-year to $341 billion.

In a survey by Shanghai American Chamber of Commerce released in September, 72 percent of 125 respondents with manufacturing operations in China said they had no plans to move any production out of China in the next three years.

Separately, Professors Samantha Vertherms of the University of California, Irvine and Jiakun Jack Zhang of the University of Kansas have found that the US-China trade war has not prompted American businesses to leave the Chinese market.

The record FDI flow into China in 2020 indicates that businesses in both countries remain “deeply integrated” with each other. The authors wrote, “Decoupling… has been greater in the minds of politicians and pundits than the reality of true businesses in China, we find little evidence that US (multinationals) are playing their part in the great power rivalry by patriotically abandoning China.”

Before the Trump administration took specific measures against China, most thought humanity was entering an era of ubiquitous connectivity aided by the internet, artificial intelligence and advancing network technology. Countries, multilateral institutions, businesses and individuals were assuming the continuation of that scenario into the future.

The measures of the Trump administration and the subsequent outbreak of the pandemic changed that picture significantly, leading to greater clarity about differences in agendas of the two strongest powers in the world.

Against this backdrop, various sectors have been reacting to these driving forces in very different ways.

While the US has restrained Huawei from participating in the building of the 5G communications network in its domestic market, US tech firms can still work with Huawei in international 5G standards development activities.

In the semiconductor industry, while earlier it was structured on the basis of global division of labor, it is now being subjected to new realities of geopolitics and individual country policies.

Both China and the US are trying to strengthen their own semiconductor value chains, with key players such as Taiwan’s TSMC and Korea’s Samsung setting up new manufacturing plants outside of their home countries. Key parts and components producers are now looking at new strategies because of the quickly shifting global landscape.

International automakers now need to consider the “One World, Two Systems” (One China-centric and one US-centric) as the speed, intensity and sophistication of smart infrastructure being built by China and the US continue to diverge.

This has direct implications for design and business models of intelligent and connected vehicles that are increasingly being equipped with autonomous driving capabilities.

However, in industries such as agriculture and food, globalization will likely expand. China’s growing middle class means increasing demand and higher requirements of nutritious food. This demand would have to be met partially with sourcing from abroad.

While the last three decades of globalization have greatly reshaped the world, its fundamental nature is changing in major ways.

In the first era of globalization (let’s call it “Globalization 1.0”), the West was the major center of demand and China was the major source of supply for a large range of products.

While this continues in globalization’s next phase (“Globalization 2.0’), China’s rapidly growing middle class and the drive for upgrading business capabilities is making it a center of demand also, in addition to supply.

Hence a “dual circulation” of both domestic and international supply and demand is emerging, consistent with the new economic policy. Regional trade agreements such as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would expand the “internal circulation”.

While these would probably be the key themes going forward, a certain amount of “regionalization” or “localization” of supply chains could also take place, besides perhaps a certain degree of “re-shoring” of manufacturing to the US.

So, will any decoupling between the US and China be happening?

As long as US sanctions on some of the Chinese tech companies remain, some degree of decoupling would continue to happen.

Data security is increasingly viewed as a national security issue. As such, the US and China will expect businesses operating in their respective jurisdictions to comply with their internal regulations, leading to some degree of decoupling.

Also, the increasing divergence between the intensity and sophistication of digital infrastructures of the two countries would mean some companies shall have to follow different strategies.

However, the world is being driven into a new era of globalization in which both the US and China will play critical roles, collaborating in some cases and competing in some.

As humanity searches for greater interconnectivity, decoupling would not be fully aligned with that trend. In fact, in many aspects there was never really any decoupling and so there is no need for “recoupling.”

In some specific cases, decoupling or partial decoupling did happen and as Tai said, perhaps it is now time for recoupling.

In the increasingly interconnected world, a simplistic notion of decoupling does not make much sense and it will not happen. Going forward, the US-China relationship would become much more intricate and sophisticated and win-win cooperation will be optimal.

SCMP | New Model For Business

By Edward Tse

2021-9-16

Originally published by South China Morning Post with title “Foreign Firms Will Have to Adapt to China’s Common Prosperity” on September 16, 2021. All rights reserved.

On August 17, President Xi Jinping explained the concept of “common prosperity” as a key requirement of socialism and a major feature of Chinese-style modernisation. Major policies are in for a sea of changes.

These range from reforming income distribution to more equal opportunities in education, health care, pensions and housing; to addressing monopolistic behaviour; and to extending boundaries of common prosperity from physical wants to mental fulfilment. Reducing income inequality through primary, secondary and tertiary wealth redistribution will be a key focus.

The major objective of common prosperity is to recast the socioeconomic pyramid into an oval-shaped structure, with the widest part representing the middle class. With this change, average income is expected to continue to increase.

Common prosperity will favour more collective interests, but that does not mean it will be done at the cost of legitimate individual interests. Companies should continue to pursue profit but will also need to be conscious of the new “red lines” redefining monopolistic behaviour, data security and societal values to provide a more equitable environment for the younger generation, better basic welfare for employees and the like.

As policies, technology and demands change, all companies need to adapt. The impact of common prosperity on foreign-owned multinational corporations will range from basic and universal to sophisticated and specific.

At the basic level, it means businesses will need to take better care of their employees, providing more benefits with reasonable working hours. Multinationals will need to assess their contributions as corporate citizens in China.

Their impact on and contribution to society will become increasingly important considerations. Environmental, social and corporate governance responsibilities are more important than ever.

In a way, this is akin to what almost 200 American CEOs jointly proclaimed in 2019, stating their intent to serve the interests of all stakeholders, including customers, employees, suppliers and communities as well as shareholders. The difference is that the government is driving this change in China whereas it was socially conscious businesses in the United States.

The focus of growth will also shift. From the consumer internet and the mega platforms that have generated so much buzz in China in the past decade, the focus is likely to move to areas such as “hard tech”, manufacturing, life sciences, new energy, the environment, sustainability, industrial internet, agriculture and others. Services for the burgeoning middle class will expand and be more innovative.

Common prosperity must be viewed as part of other key policy initiatives, including pursuit of the “dual circulation” economic policy, technological self-sufficiency, a central bank digital currency, carbon neutrality by 2060 and others. Together, they form China’s pursuit of its own “modernity with Chinese characteristics”.

Players in the semiconductor sector, for example, will need to reposition themselves because of the changing global industry structure shaped by geopolitics and policies. Foreign carmakers need to consider “one world, two systems”, one China-centric, the other US-centric, as Chinese cities are building comprehensive smart infrastructure that will directly affect design and business models.

In segments recently opened to foreign investors such as asset management, wealth management products might need to correspond with China’s new societal structure. Critically, foreign companies that generate and capture data in China must satisfy both the new data security law and their home country’s requirements.

Smart cities serving the public agenda and business models of a range of industries will need to integrate with public infrastructure. Private businesses in the affected sectors may no longer be able to define strategic and operational parameters by themselves. Close coordination with the public sector will become necessary.

More new ventures could take the form of public-private partnerships, and new ecosystems of government, state-owned enterprises, private-sector companies as well as foreign multinationals will come into being. Foreign multinationals will have to critically examine their partnerships in China.

Perennial concerns of multinationals and their lobbyists have been in areas such as intellectual property, indigenous innovation, local champions, uneven playing fields and so on. While each issue still needs to be addressed individually, the new context means that, collectively, these might no longer be the make-or-break issues for multinationals. Rather, the issue is increasingly whether they can leverage China as a platform to become more innovative and competitive.

Common prosperity is a huge social undertaking and will be a game-changer in many ways. Done right, it will set the foundation for more balanced and sustainable growth, and that could have a major impact on the rest of the world.

At a minimum, companies will need to comply with new policies and regulations. At the other end of the scale, even the fundamental nature of some businesses could be redefined. For many sectors and businesses, China’s importance will continue to increase, not only as a market and a major supply chain hub but also as an epicentre of innovation.

Along the way, China will continue to open up to foreign-owned multinationals. Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua has pledged support for those that operate in China, recognising their contributions and underscoring that China looks forward to more investment from them.

Foreign multinationals need to understand the implications of the new policy landscape for their businesses in China and, for that matter, the impact of China on the rest of the world.

How Common Prosperity Will Affect China’s Private Sector

By Edward Tse

2021-9-7

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by Caixin Global on September 7.

On August 17, 2021, President Xi Jinping explained the concept of “common prosperity” at the Central Finance Committee Meeting. He said, “common prosperity is a key requirement of socialism and a major feature of Chinese-style modernization.”

This is a clear signal that policies are in for a sea of changes, from reforming income distribution and providing more equal opportunities in education, healthcare, pension and housing to addressing monopolistic behaviors and extending boundaries of prosperity from material needs to spiritual satisfaction. The immediate focus might be put on reducing income inequality through the so-called “primary, secondary and tertiary wealth distribution.”

Many have commented on the implications of the new policy, especially for new areas of investment.

A report by China Securities says new investment opportunities will emerge in the following areas:

1) More resources for infrastructure building and upgrading in underdeveloped areas, with focus on hardware and software for the digital economy;

2) Enhanced growth opportunities for manufacturing and disruptive small and midsize enterprises in information technology, new energy and biomedical industries;

3) Better education, medical and elderly care services;

4) Expansion of channels for citizens to earn higher incomes, including “tertiary distribution” of wealth, promotion of charity foundations, and more long-term wealth management methods. This means additional capital flows into the securities market benefitting brokerages and insurance sectors;

5) Consumption upgrade to enhance growth opportunities in consumer goods, as well as services such as cultural, media, sports and entertainment.

The new policy will obviously change the operating environment, requiring local and foreign companies to evaluate if and how they should develop new strategies to address these changes.

The key objective of common prosperity is to reshape the societal structure from a pyramid-shaped structure to an oval-shaped one with the widest part representing the middle class. It also means that average income should continue to increase. One can expect continued growth in demand for a wide range of products and services leading to better healthcare and an improved lifestyle.

The importance of collective interests will heighten, though it may not outweigh legitimate individual interests. So, while companies will continue to pursue individual interests, they will have to be mindful of the redrawn “red lines” that will define excessive monopolistic market behavior, violation of data security law, distortion of certain societal values, a more balanced developmental environment for the younger generation, fulfillment of basic welfare for employees, and the like.

The pursuit of common prosperity means that at the most fundamental level, all businesses would be expected to take better care of their employees, with more benefits and more reasonable working hours. To this end, automaker Geely has already proposed a program to offer 350 million new shares (3.56% of total equity) to employees.

Societal impact and contributions will have to be increasingly important considerations for companies. “ESG” (environment, society and governance) and corporate social responsibilities will have to be assigned greater importance by companies and investors.

Focus of growth will also shift. While the consumer internet (and the mega-platforms) has generated much buzz in China over the last decade, focus will likely shift to areas such as “hard tech,” manufacturing, life sciences, new energy, environment, sustainability, industrial internet, agriculture and others. Also, services for the burgeoning middle class will become more prevalent. More innovations can be expected in these areas in due course.

Additionally, the practice of some internet companies using sophisticated algorithms to track individuals ubiquitously will be subject to restraints, at least to ensure it isn’t blatant. Fulfilling the new data security law will be essential going forward.

The common prosperity policy must be viewed as part and parcel of other key policy initiatives including pursuing “dual circulation” economic policy, targeting technological self-sufficiency, adopting the dual approach of building major regional city clusters while revitalizing rural areas, launching central bank digital currency, achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and others. Together, they form China’s pursuit of its own “modernity with Chinese characteristics.”

In this vein, companies across many sectors will need to address some fundamental questions. For instance, global manufacturing companies need to decide how much of their manufacturing and supply chain they should shift into, or out of, China. To what extent should China remain the hub of their supply chains? Industries such as the semiconductor industry are being disrupted by changing geopolitics and individual country policies, and need to decide how to reposition themselves in the new global industrial structure. Foreign companies that generate and capture data in China must find ways to satisfy China’s data security law while also meeting their home country’s data security requirements.

More profoundly, the fundamental nature of some of the businesses will change to some extent. As smart cities which serve the public agenda come up all over China, business models of a range of industries will need to integrate significantly with public infrastructure. In these cases, private sector businesses will no longer be able to define strategic and operational parameters simply by themselves. Close coordination and collaboration with the public sector will become necessary. Sectors such as intelligent and connected vehicles, mobility-as-a-service, digital health, smart energy and modern agriculture are areas that come to mind.

We will likely see more new ventures take the form of public-private partnerships (PPP) and new ecosystems of government, state-owned enterprises and private sector companies will be formed. Companies will have to critically examine the continued vitality of their partnerships in China.

China’s pursuit of common prosperity is a huge social undertaking and this will be a game changer in many ways. When done right, it will mean setting a foundation for more balanced and sustainable growth over time, and creating change that may have major impact on the rest of the world. It will have implications for all kinds of businesses operating in China. At the minimum, companies will need to comply with new policies and regulations. At the maximum, even the fundamental nature of some businesses will be re-defined. As such, companies need to fundamentally re-think their strategies, and for those who have global presence, this may have severe implications for their operations in the rest of the world, too.

Dialogue Review | Why China Works

By Edward Tse

2021-8-24

On August 24, a recent article authored by Dr. Tse was published on Dialogue Review, a leading publication associated with Duke Executive Education, USA.

Few countries demand the attention of global companies’ senior executives quite like China. Its market size, its continued growth and its importance to global supply chains make it hard to ignore. Its GDP growth of 2.3% in 2020 (as reported by the International Monetary Fund, April 2021) indicates a strong post-pandemic recovery – a performance which is all the more remarkable when compared with the negative growth experienced by the rest of the world in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, China’s GDP grew by a record 18.3% in comparison to the same period the year before.

China has come a long way since the start of its reform and ‘opening up’ policies some four decades ago; in fact, its GDP has grown over 200 times across this period. It is set to overtake the US as the largest economy in the world before the end of this decade. Despite this, many people over the years have cast doubts on whether China’s growth is sustainable. Perhaps the most quoted narrative has been that of a 2001 book, The Coming Collapse of China, which predicted that China would collapse in the “near future.”

Yet China has delivered continued economic growth without showing any signs of imminent collapse, despite a rather challenging geopolitical environment and a pandemic. Why has this been possible? The answer lies in a three-layered system of economic development which has guided government and enterprise over many years. It’s time for global businesses to truly understand why China works – and to assess how geopolitical developments may shape its future role in the global economy.

China’s development approach

After a rather tumultuous first three decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) began its reform under Deng Xiaoping at the end of the 1970s. While retaining key aspects of the state planning system, Deng began to experiment with elements of a market economy to create “capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. This included allowing the return of entrepreneurship, which has become a key component of China’s economy and the most important source of commercially applied innovation. The central government continues to play a significant role in steering the economy and helping the country to develop at a sustainable pace, but China is no longer just a state economy: the private sector has become increasingly significant.

That is especially true in today’s digital economy. For instance, the government has allowed two private companies – Tencent and Alibaba – to create and dominate the country’s online payment system. China’s third-party payment transactions have reached ¥280 trillion (about US$44 trillion), of which over 80% are paid through Alipay and Tenpay. It is an example of the central government’s willingness to coordinate with private businesses to put much-needed innovations to work for the country. Collaboration with private enterprises will continue to be essential as the government prepares to launch its central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Local governments also play an important role in the Chinese system. They often function as a bridge between central government and entrepreneurs: they frequently provide funding for businesses, and select strategic positions commensurate with the directions set by the central government. Many have built their digital and smart infrastructure to support ‘smart cities’ initiatives driven by the central government.

The interaction of central government, local governments and the private sector amounts to a three-layered model for China’s economic development

In addition to this three-layered structure, China has a unique dual economic structure, comprising state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs). While there are sometimes conflicts between companies from these two sectors, they also co-exist in symbiotic relationships, with SOEs providing public goods, such as infrastructure and environment-improvement measures. A good example is the development of the world’s most extensive high-speed railway network, built from practically nothing, in just over a decade. Such achievements are possible because these enterprises do not evaluate mission-critical infrastructure projects only on narrow economic viability. Both Chinese people and businesses, including foreign companies, benefit from such infrastructure.

We call this system a ‘three-layered duality’. It is an approach which requires constant juggling of various components to make it work. It is experimental by nature and therefore requires a strong degree of overall orchestration, plus shared vision and values from those who participate. As a result, it has an innate ability to self-adjust over time – as seen in the emergence of China’s innovative private sector.

Key achievements

China has developed a strong reputation for innovation. Broadly speaking, there are two strands of innovation. One is technological innovation which is primarily driven by the government. This includes programmes such as space missions (including lunar and Mars probes), deep sea exploration, developments in quantum computing and many others. The other strand is tech-enabled innovation in commercial applications. Prime examples are found in e-commerce, online payment and smart logistics, as well as in the automotive and mobility sectors. Private businesses play a major role in this sort of innovation, often in collaboration with local governments.

The three-layered interplay between central and local governments and both SOEs and POEs is evident in many fields. For instance, with the US government’s sanctions on high-end semiconductor chips hitting Chinese manufacturers, China has launched a major initiative to develop self-sufficiency in high-end chip supplies. The central government, many local governments, and various SOEs and POEs are involved in various ventures aiming at creating breakthroughs.

The Covid-19 response provided another very visible example. During the lockdown of Wuhan city in early 2020, two emergency hospitals were built in as little as ten days. China was able to achieve this because as soon as the central and local governments decided that the hospitals were necessary, a large number of SOEs – together with POEs and even foreign companies – quickly collaborated. The commitment to a common goal and sharing of a vision were key motivators. To simply equate this with a simplistic ‘authoritarian’ narrative does not assign enough credit to all those who participated.

This is sometimes termed a ‘whole-of-nation approach’ – one that can mobilize resources across the entire country against a certain objective and purpose. It is based on a pragmatic balance between a sense of collective responsibility and individualism by all involved. It is a balance that has driven the unprecedented intensity and pace of China’s innovation and development, as well as its resilience. Small wonder, perhaps, that a recent survey carried out by Canada’s York University found an overwhelming 98% of Chinese citizens indicated that their trust in the national government had increased since the pandemic. The notion of the “coming collapse of China” has little chance of materializing any time soon.

Global businesses in China

Global businesses who have operated in China for some time may understand the reasons for the country’s success, although many multinationals are yet to fully grasp the impact of Chinese innovation. Some, though, are beginning to recognize what they can learn from China. One large US client told me their board of directors instructed the China team to think about how to leverage Chinese knowledge to help businesses in other parts of the world. BMW has taken its Munich-based Startup Garage programme to China to gain exposure to innovative new technologies, while Herbert Diess, chairman and chief executive of Volkswagen, said at the 2021 Davos online summit that China was “moving in the right direction” – with it now being easier for foreign multinationals to invest in China than for Chinese businesses to invest in countries such as Germany.

As Diess also noted, there is a strong relationship of dependency: “they are depending on the West, we are depending on China”. Indeed, China’s role in the world is becoming ever more important. Its internally driven development approach is moving the country towards a new era of high-quality growth that will be epitomized by more innovation and greater sustainability. However, the external environment is becoming more complicated – and it doesn’t look like this will get better anytime soon.

Three geopolitical scenarios

In determining their strategic approach to China, global companies must evaluate how the evolution of geopolitics could affect their positions. As a global power, China’s relationship with many parts of the world will be critical in the years ahead – but its most important geopolitical relationship is likely to remain that with the US.

We believe there are three potential scenarios related to geopolitics and macroeconomics which will affect global businesses, especially US businesses. The first is ‘regionalized isolation’. In this scenario, Chinese companies will be forced out of the US market, with the Chinese government retaliating by virtually blocking US investment in China. The Chinese tech industry becomes self-sufficient and there is a widespread economic decoupling, with Chinese consumers becoming increasingly hostile towards US brands, shifting instead to local products.

The second scenario is ‘one world, two systems’. The US and China will remain geopolitical rivals with occasional flare-ups on specific issues, but will find agreement on common interests. Intense competition in high-tech areas will continue, though stakeholders will learn to solve disputes through dialogue. Export controls and other policy measures, as well as differences in the sophistication of digital infrastructure, will see China and the US evolve into two distinct tech systems. China will expand market access to foreign firms, but with stringent data and security policies. As intelligence and connectivity become increasingly embedded in Chinese society, consumers will gravitate towards brands that can give them the desired digital experiences, tailored to local tastes, regardless of origin.

The third scenario is one of ‘co-opetition’. The US and China remain geopolitical rivals while collaborating in certain areas of global governance. They both compete and collaborate in high-tech areas. As it grows, China will increase market access for foreign players, while exercising data sovereignty based on recognized principles of global data governance. Again, consumers seek out the brands that can tailor experiences to local tastes, irrespective of origin. In this scenario, companies’ products, services and business models have a better chance of transcending national borders – perhaps with the exception of core technology concerns.

We don’t believe a complete decoupling is likely or even possible. The ‘one world, two systems’ scenario will probably manifest under some specific conditions, while the third scenario of ‘co-opetition’ is probably more likely over the medium term – perhaps with more competition initially, moving towards greater collaboration over time.

Engaging with China

Today, a global company’s China strategy is largely dependent on which of these geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios it expects to pan out. China’s importance to global companies’ finances and competitive positioning will become more critical going forward, despite the uncertain US-China relationship.

However the geopolitical context develops, China will continue to generate much of its own economic momentum. Its unique and still-evolving three-layered duality development framework – the whole-of-nation approach – will provide it with significant resilience. The country should be able to continue to make major progress.

Making the right bets now on how the world will look in the coming years, and what to do in China, will define the long-term competitiveness of many companies around the world – perhaps even their survival.

SCMP | How China’s Tech Crackdown Lays Foundation

How China’s Tech Crackdown Lays Foundation For Future Growth

By Edward Tse2021-8-20Originally published by South China Morning Post on August 20, 2021. All rights reserved.

Recent regulatory actions by the Chinese government towards the tech industry have raised concerns for many people. Starting from the postponement of Ant Group’s IPO to the complete overhaul of regulations governing private tutoring and additional regulations on other market leaders, many are wondering whether these steps constitute a sudden change in the government’s attitude towards private enterprise.

In the past decade or so, Chinese entrepreneurs have been quick to leverage the internet to build innovative business models. As a result, e-commerce, “new retail”, mobility services, food delivery and the like have created many highly valued companies.

Though the recent tightening of regulations on tech companies has happened abruptly, the reasons vary. Ant Group’s initial public offering was postponed because of concerns over excessive financial leverage, which implied potential major risks to society. Alibaba and Meituanwere penalised for insisting merchants choose only one platform. Didi Chuxing listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 30, but did not fully comply with China’s regulatory requirements on data security and is now being told to do so.

For Meituan, the mandate to pay basic benefits to its delivery people is a workers’ welfare measure. And regulations on private tutoring were tightened amid concerns about the increasingly exorbitant costs of children’s education, which could hamper the new, relaxed childbirth policy.

When viewed in the proper context, these measures are not really alarming. Even so, the Chinese government’s determination and speed in addressing these concerns may well be unique.As I wrote earlier, China is in search of “modernity with Chinese characteristics”. When thinking of the future, China also considers its rich past.

China is attached to traditional ways and yet is open to imported ideas such as Marxism and capitalism. It adheres to the principles of socialism, but it also embraces the dynamism of a market economy. Focused on the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, it also advocates a “shared future for mankind”.

There is an element of duality but also a sense of oneness in Chinese culture, which has shaped Chinese civilisation for more than 1,000 years. Thus, the Chinese government is promoting collective interests while continuing to allow individual pursuits of financial well-being.

Mass experimentation has been a major characteristic of China’s era of reform, with a delicate balance between collectivism and individualism evolving continuously. During the early days of reform, the emphasis was on bringing in more capitalism and allowing private entrepreneurs to experiment. As some forms of extreme capitalism began to emerge, this started to upset the delicate balance.

At the same time, technological advances and geopolitics have influenced China’s nation-building in significant ways, rendering issues such as cross-border data security important. Thus, the pendulum began to swing towards collective interests. While existing “red lines” applicable to corporate and investors are shifting, new ones are also emerging.

The recent regulatory actions did not come out of nowhere. President Xi Jinping had already warned of the negative impact of the overemphasis on out-of-school tutoring in a 2018 speech.

He said some private tutoring institutions had “increased the burden of students and families’ financial burden” and “violated the laws of education”, as well as “disrupted the normal order of education”. In addition, he said the education industry “cannot turn into a profit-driven industry”.

In a speech at the China Internet Conference, former Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan criticised the business models of internet platforms. He said he found four major problems: seeking scale and a monopoly position by “burning money”, designing products that take advantage of human weakness, collecting excessive user data and indulging in unfair practices.

“This type of business model does not produce optimal allocation of resources and has a limited contribution to overall value creation in society,” Huang said.China’s 14th five-year plan has underscored the priority on technological innovations and the need for technological self-sufficiency. One of the drivers for this was the US government’s sanctions on core technologies such as high-end semiconductor chips.

The Chinese government has also put forward a “dual circulation” economic policy that calls for greater emphasis on domestic supply and demand that coexists with international trade. This relies on the continuous increase in demand from China’s fast-growing middle class that desires higher-quality products and services.

Going forward, the “hard tech” that can help the pursuit of innovation, products and services for the growing middle class and lower-income segments of the society, besides bettering the overall environment, will become more prevalent. Along the way, consideration of collective interests will be a key part of investment decisions. That is the essence of “common prosperity”, a concept underscored by Xi in his recent speech at the Central Finance Committee.

These sudden and drastic corrections could be painful for some but they will set the foundation for future growth. In the meantime, the red lines are being repositioned and redefined.

However, there is much more to do and a large range of companies and investors will need to join in. Some of these initiatives are likely to take the form of public-private partnerships.

More start-ups and investors will benefit from the new focus as long as they choose the right path for investment and take into account the new line of thinking. The search for a Chinese version of modernity continues.

CGTN | China’s Overhaul of Regulations

China’s Overhaul of Regulations in Private Education Part of Strategy

By Edward Tse

2021-7-30

A recent article authored by Dr. Tse was published by CGTN on July 30, 2021.

Editor’s note: Edward Tse is the founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm with roots in China. The article reflects the author’s opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The recent overhaul of the regulations governing private education sector by the Chinese government has come as a surprise to many. Under the “Double Reduction” policy announced on July 24, the burden of homework and after-school excessive study hours is to be reduced.

The new regulations prohibit private education firms from offering for-profit tutoring in core school subjects on recess time. Private education firms are also not allowed to raise capital and get listed.

Online or in-person classes in core subjects to children under the age of six is also prohibited because children are increasingly pushed to start cramming for exams at a very young age.

After announcement of the new regulations, share prices of all Chinese private education companies fell within a matter of days, listed in the U.S., Chinese mainland and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

China’s education industry sub-index dropped as much as 14 percent on July 26. Hong Kong-listed education companies, including New Oriental Education and Technology and Scholar Education Group fell by 40.6 percent and 28.5 percent respectively, along with the U.S.-listed companies Gaotu Techedu and TAL Education Group, both of which plunged by about 50 percent at the end of the day.

The new regulations for the education sector came soon after Chinese regulators took major actions scrutinizing Didi Chuxing, the leading ride hailing company which had recently listed in New York City for data security issues.

At around the same time, regulators banned the proposed merger between two leading games companies, one of which is owned by internet giant Tencent, because of anti-monopoly concerns. Food delivery app Meituan has been asked to pay the required benefits to its delivery people.

Earlier, Chinese regulators also put a stop to Ant Group’s IPO due to concerns on its business model, while Alibaba, Meituan and retailer Suning were all fined for anti-competition behavior.

In addition, the Chinese government has taken a number of other steps along the way. These cover areas such as relaxation of the hukou system (a household registration system), eradication of poverty, easing of child birth restriction policy, and increasing access for foreign companies’ participation in the Chinese market especially for the financial services sector.

The overhaul of the private education sector is believed to be a key step towards reducing the workload for students and also a way to reduce the costs of bringing up children in China.

One key reason why Chinese couples are reluctant to have more children is the exorbitant costs of bringing up children. This in turn has contributed to the skew of China’s demographic profile over time.

So what do these policy measures really mean? And how should investors, both foreign and local, and other observers interpret these policy adjustments? Is this series of policy changes an outlier event or does it indicate something more significant?

On top of these significant policy measures, the Chinese government has also announced its 14th Five-Year Plan in which technological innovation is the key area of focus. While technological innovation has been at the core of China’s development for the last decade and more, the need for it has been exacerbated by the U.S. government’s sanctions on transfer of core technology to China.

On top, the U.S.-China trade war and pandemic outbreak required China to take decisive decisions in addressing these challenges. China’s experience henceforth has increased the confidence in its own governance.

These are being undertaken while China searches for its own brand of modernity. In the centenary speech on July 1, Chinese President Xi Jinping mentioned nine times that ” … put conscious effort into learning from history, to create a bright future.” This epitomizes how China is searching for its own brand of modernity for which the “whole nation system” is deployed.

When thinking of the future, China often reflects at its rich past. In parallel to respecting and following traditional ways, China is open to imported ideas like Marxism as well as a reasonable degree of capitalism.

It adheres to the principles of socialism, but also embraces the dynamism of a market economy. Focusing on the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” its leader also advocates “a community with a shared future for humankind.”

The absorption of foreign thoughts into multiple strands of traditional Chinese thinking such as Buddhism, Confucianism, the long held belief of “yin and yang” into taoism, combined with the “oneness” in Chinese culture, has shaped Chinese civilization for thousands of years. The modern China has somehow created an approach that effectively addresses the multiple dimensions encountered in the search for its own brand of modernity.

This context reassures that China will continue to navigate its way forward in an inclusive manner and grow socially, economically and politically, frequently experimenting with its unique approaches.

In the context of improving the well-being of Chinese people and playing a larger role in advancing overall well-being to the entire world, China’s leaders take decisive actions on issues that matter.

While investors of the affected companies may not like these moves, the general public in China, as the beneficiary, are in general supportive. In the search for its envisioned modernity, the Chinese government is trying to promote collective interests while continuing to allow individual’s pursuit of financial well-being. The Chinese is calling this a pursuit of “common prosperity.”

At this heart of it is an institutional approach to reduction of costs of living for the country’s people, including those of giving birth, nurturing children, education and housing.

These corrective measures are expected to put future growth on a sound footing. Going forward, opportunities will come from areas such as hard tech, manufacturing, life sciences, new energy, environmental sustainability agriculture and the like.

Moreover, a large number of start-ups will emerge in these areas and many investors will benefit. But going forward, picking the right lane to invest will be the key. From the investment standpoint, this short-term turbulence redefines the foundation for longer term growth.

As China continues to search for its own brand of modernity with Chinese characteristics, the rest of the world will increasingly get to know of the impact of what China does. People need to deepening the understanding of what China’s approach is, and how it works for the world.

SCMP | Understanding China’s Goals

By Edward Tse

2021-8-1

Originally published on South China Morning Post with title “What the West Needs to Know About Where Modern China is Headed” on August 1, 2021. All rights reserved.

China is building a modern socialist state with Chinese characteristics. The paradigm shift of reform and opening is now spearheaded by innovation, while historical Chinese experience is applied in the context of the current global environment.

In rejuvenating the Chinese nation, the goal is to become a modern society of common prosperity, capable of defending national sovereignty and helping to ensure global stability.

In recent years, the prevailing Western view of China has undergone a fundamental shift. China is increasingly seen as a challenge to what the West terms the “liberal international order”.

In the heat of rhetoric, this challenge is often cast as an existential threat posed by China with malign intent, which calls for an equally hostile response. This scenario has the potential to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading to possible real conflict. To manage the rivalry, it is important for the West, especially the United States, to understand the goals of China and their underlying drivers.

China’s gross domestic product grew 12.7 per cent in the first half of 2021, and average GDP growth for the past two years was 5.3 per cent, despite the pandemic.

China’s international trade and foreign direct investment continue to increase and it is now a “moderately affluent society”, having eradicated extreme poverty.

In parallel, the Chinese people’s support for their government is very high. An overwhelming 98 per cent of Chinese citizens say they trust the national government, according to a recent survey by York University of Canada.

According to a new study by the Japan Centre for Economic Research, China’s economy will exceed that of the US by around 2028. How would the US (and the rest of the West) deal with a world in which China is the leading economic power?

The People’s Republic of China began its reform and opening up under Deng Xiaoping at the end of the 1970s. While retaining the key features of the state planning system, Deng began to experiment with elements of a market economy, including bringing back entrepreneurship.

Entrepreneurship is now a key component of economic growth. China is no longer just a state economy: the private sector too has become very significant.

The central government continues to steer the economy and maintain a sustainable pace of development. Building on more than a decade of innovation, Chinese entrepreneurs played a major role in bringing to fruition the central government’s 2014 policy on encouraging mass entrepreneurship and innovation.

Local governments often act as bridges between the central government and entrepreneurs. Leading local governments frequently provide funding for businesses and follow strategies that support directives set by the central government.

In addition, in China’s dual economic structure, state-owned enterprises and privately-owned enterprises coexist and have a rather symbiotic relationship, despite occasional conflict.

This is because SOEs provide public goods and services like infrastructure, the best example of which is the high-speed rail network that is now the world’s most extensive. SOEs do not evaluate infrastructure projects only for economic viability but also for enhancement of public utilities. Chinese people and businesses, as well as foreign companies, benefit from this approach.

Some call this a “whole-of-nation approach”, which allows the mobilisation of resources from across the country for specific purposes. A pragmatic balance is maintained between collective responsibility and individual objectives. While the state drives the sense of collective purpose through SOEs, entrepreneurs are allowed and in fact encouraged to succeed against a certain state-driven rules-based order.

In a speech marking the centenary of the Communist Party on July 1, President Xi Jinping mentioned the importance of “learning from history to create a bright future”. He also said: “We must continue to adapt the basic tenets of Marxism to China’s specific realities and its fine traditional culture.”

This epitomises how China is searching for its own brand of modernity, while keeping the “whole-of-nation approach”.

When thinking of the future, China surveys its rich past also. China is attached to traditional ways, yet open to imported ideas such as Marxism and, to a reasonable degree, capitalism. It adheres to the principles of socialism, but also embraces the dynamism of a market economy.

Focused on the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, it also advocates a “shared future for mankind”.

There is a concept of duality (yin and yang) but also a sense of oneness in Chinese culture, which has not only absorbed foreign schools of thought like Buddhism, but also merged multiple strands of Chinese thinking such as Confucianism, Daoism and Mohism rather seamlessly; this has shaped Chinese civilisation for more a thousand years, according to Professor Wang Gungwu of the National University of Singapore.

Thus, modern China will be able to search for its own brand of modernity, while addressing the many dimensions of this quest.

This context ensures that China can continue to navigate the future in an inclusive manner and grow socially, economically and politically, with various types of experiments along the way.

The Chinese will continue to discover and adopt more novel ideas in science and technology, as well as in economic development. Along with these changes, China’s value system and soft power will also gain increasing recognition.

Western policymakers and elites need to study these phenomena, the historical context and the future implications in their own interest.

【Quote of Today】July 1st

“Some people call this approach a “Whole Nation Approach” (举国体制) that can mobilize resources across the entire country against a certain objective and purpose. It is based on a sense of pragmatic balance between a sense of collective responsibility and that of individualism on the part of all involved. While the state drives a sense of collective purpose and responsibility, through SOEs, it provides necessary public goods for citizens and businesses, entrepreneurs based on private initiatives are allowed and in fact encouraged to succeed against a certain state-driven rules-based order.

Some people attribute this to the historical heritage of China where the literate shared a sense of collective responsibility that comes from a lineage of vast and multiple strands of thought, mostly in the (Han-centric) Chinese civilization that later inter-mixed with imported thoughts from Buddhism. This coupled with the purpose and governance system of modern China has somehow created an inclusive culture that addresses both the collective interest as well as individual pursuits.

This has no doubt resulted in the massive and unprecedented intensity and pace of innovation and development, as well as resilience. Innovation has become an integral part of the Chinese culture…”

Caixin Global | Deciphering China’s Culture of Innovation

By Edward Tse

2021-06-30

A recent article authored by Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published by Caixin Global on June 30

The world now acknowledges China’s ability to innovate. But many people question why that has happened. For many, especially those in the West, China is supposed to be under an alleged authoritarian system and so by nature, it would not be able to sustain innovation or keep it vibrant. These people have been working on the paradigm that innovation can only thrive in a free enterprise system led by private initiatives with minimal state involvement or interference.

Broadly speaking there are two strands of innovation in China. One is technological innovation, which is primarily driven by the government. This includes programs such as space missions, deep sea exploration, developments in quantum computing and many others. Another strand is tech-enabled innovation in commercial applications. Prime examples are innovations in e-commerce, social commerce, “new retail”, “big health,” fintech, automation and robotics, smart logistics as well as automobiles and mobility. Private businesses play a major role in this sort of innovation, often in collaboration with local governments.

China’s innovation capabilities and entrepreneurship have come a long way since the start of the country’s reform era. China began to experiment with the elements of a market economy and has allowed entrepreneurship based on private initiatives to return since the late 1970s. After several generations of entrepreneurs who have emerged along the way, there has been an upsurge since the end of the 2000s as Chinese entrepreneurs have begun embracing the wireless internet and have leveraged it for generating business innovations that address both the pain points of Chinese society and the emerging consumer demand for new products with new technologies offering innovative features and conveniences.

Several large and successful tech companies such as Tencent Holdings Ltd., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., SZ DJI Technology Co. Ltd., Xiaomi Corp., ByteDance Ltd., JD.com Inc., Pinduoduo Inc. and many others now dot the economic horizon of China. And companies such as Ping An Insurance Group Co. of China Ltd., Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., BYD Co. Ltd., Midea Group Co. Ltd. and the like that started off as “traditional” have successfully transformed themselves into innovative tech companies. According to the Hurun Global Unicorn Index 2020, the number of unicorns (unlisted companies with a valuation of more than $1 billion) has grown exponentially over the years and today China has the second-largest number of them in the world — 227, compared with 233 in the U.S.

After the rather tumultuous first three decades, the People’s Republic of China began its reform under Deng Xiaoping at the end of the 1970s. While retaining the key features of its state planning system, Deng began to experiment with some elements of a market economy, including allowing the return of entrepreneurship in China.

Entrepreneurship has now become a key component of China’s economic growth and the most important source of commercially applied innovations. China is no longer just a state economy, the private sector too has become very significant.

At the same time, the central government continues to develop policies to steer the economy in the direction that it deems appropriate and help the country’s development move at a sustainable pace. Building on successful experience over a decade in driving innovation, since around the mid-2000s, Chinese entrepreneurs have played a major role in bringing to fruition the Chinese State Council’s 2014 policy on encouraging mass entrepreneurship and innovation.

More specifically, the central government has allowed two private companies — Tencent and Alibaba — to create and dominate the country’s online payment system, which shows how the central government, where appropriate, would coordinate with private businesses to put much-needed innovations to work for the country. Today, China’s third-party payment transactions have reached 280 trillion yuan (about $44 trillion), over 80% of which are handled by Alipay and WeChat Pay. The central government is now preparing to launch its central bank digital currency (CBDC) and here too collaboration with private enterprises will be essential, considering the current dominance of private sector firms in processing of online payments.

Often local governments also play an important role as a bridge between the central government and entrepreneurs. Leading local governments frequently provide funding for businesses and also select certain strategic positions that are in conformity with the directions set by the central government. Many have built their digital and smart infrastructure to support smart cities initiatives driven by the central government.

In addition to the three-layered structure comprising the central government, local governments and businesses, China is also unique in that it has a dual economic structure of both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs). While there are sometimes conflicts between companies from these two sectors, they also co-exist, living in a rather symbiotic relationship.

SOEs provide public goods (for example, infrastructure and environmental improvement measures) as part of their social responsibilities for the Chinese people. A good example is that SOEs were able to build a high-speed railway network from practically nothing to the world’s most extensive in just over a decade, because they do not evaluate these mission-critical infrastructure projects only on economic viability. Today, the Chinese people and businesses, including foreign companies, benefit from this infrastructure.

This “three-layered duality” approach requires constant juggling of various components to make it work. It is experimental by nature but the all participants have a strong ability for overall orchestration and they share the vision and values, which leads to an innate ability to self-adjust along the way.

Compared with the earlier generations of entrepreneurs, Chinese entrepreneurs have become younger. Many are in their 30s and some are even younger. They are omnipresent in a range of industries including those mentioned above and many of them share the commonality of leveraging technology as the basis for innovation.

As new disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 5G, cloud technology and blockchain technology are emerging and finding acceptance in the world’s leading digital economies, China is entering into a new tech-enabled innovation era. In China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, technological innovation is a key theme and China is committed to becoming self-sufficient in technology, particularly in the aftermath of sanctions by the U.S. government on key supplies of core technology, products and components.

Since the U.S. government announced sanctions on high-end semiconductor chips supplies to select Chinese manufacturers, China has launched a major initiative toward self-sufficiency in high-end chips. In this case, the central government, many local governments, various SOEs and POEs are involved in a variety of ventures aimed at making breakthroughs.

During the lockdown of the city of Wuhan at the peak of China’s outbreak last year, two emergency hospitals were built in a week to 10 days’ time. China was able to achieve this because as soon as the central and local governments decided that these hospitals were necessary, a large number of SOEs together with POEs and even foreign companies quickly collaborated to contribute. The commitment to a common goal and sharing of a vision were the key motivators. Attributing this magnificent feat to an “authoritarian” government will be too simplistic and unfair to those who participated in practically overnight building of the hospitals.

Some people call this approach a “Whole Nation Approach” (举国体制) that can mobilize resources across the entire country against a certain objective and purpose. It is based on a sense of pragmatic balance between a sense of collective responsibility and that of individualism on the part of all involved. While the state drives a sense of collective purpose and responsibility, through SOEs, it provides necessary public goods for citizens and businesses, entrepreneurs based on private initiatives are allowed and in fact encouraged to succeed against a certain state-driven rules-based order.

Some people attribute this to the historical heritage of China where the literate shared a sense of collective responsibility that comes from a lineage of vast and multiple strands of thought, mostly in the (Han-centric) Chinese civilization that later inter-mixed with imported thoughts from Buddhism. This coupled with the purpose and governance system of modern China has somehow created an inclusive culture that addresses both the collective interest as well as individual pursuits.

This has no doubt resulted in the massive and unprecedented intensity and pace of innovation and development, as well as resilience. Innovation has become an integral part of the Chinese culture and its manifestation is becoming more profound by the day.

China Daily | Nation’s Semiconductor Industry at a Turning Point

By Edward Tse, Alexander Loke and Rachel Hu

2021-06-10

A recent article authored by Gao Feng CEO Dr. Tse was published by China Daily on June 10. It was co-authored by Associate Alexander Loke and Senior Consultant Rachel Hu.

Recently, there has been much news about the global shortage of semiconductor chips. Some pundits have called it a crisis because China is the world’s largest consumer of semiconductors, taking up more than 50 percent of the global supply, and yet its production of high-end chips is limited.

United States sanctions on technology exports to China, as well as pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, have caused a severe chip shortage. Businesses and consumers around the world are now facing growing supply concerns.

The first tipping point arose when former US president Donald Trump began imposing sanctions on chip exports to key Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei, causing a plethora of disruptions in the entire semiconductor industry worldwide.

Over the years, China has relied heavily on imports of high-end chips as it followed the rules of globalization and a natural division of labor across different economies in the world. High-end semiconductor chips involve significant inherent risks, and the industry requires huge upfront investment. Therefore, a division of labor across the world with key parts of the value chain concentrated in the hands of a few players in specific geographies makes sense.

However, the US sanctions on chips supplies to China have disrupted these fundamentals. China has realized that self-sufficiency in core technologies such as semiconductors will be critical going forward.

China’s move toward self-sufficiency in semiconductors raises new questions on the future of existing global players. Peter Wennink, CEO of ASML, a leading manufacturer of lithography equipment for the production of computer chips, recently told news outlet Politico that Europe should not restrain exports to China, like the US has done. Beyond exports, foreign players also need to integrate with China’s ecosystems, with a local presence.

The push for self-sufficiency by China, the world’s largest chips buyer, is driving further advancements in new technologies. The semiconductor industry has become a national top priority. The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) calls for an increase in research and development spending of more than 7 percent annually in those five years, focusing on key technology areas, including semiconductors.

Under the nation’s Made in China 2025 industrial plan, 70 percent of the semiconductors it uses are to be produced domestically by 2025.

China is making progress in technology and innovation. The Suzhou Institute of Nano-Tech and Nano-Bionics reported a breakthrough in laser lithography technology last year, which is expected to lead to domestic production of advanced lithography machines. However, this is still at an early stage and years away from commercialization.

In May last year, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp began mass production of Kirin 710A chips for Huawei, and now Huawei builds hardware with a foundry other than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. In October, SMIC said it would soon produce 7-nanometer wafers for the Chinese market. In addition, China Electronics Technology Group Corp has developed a series of homegrown ion implanters, enabling production of 28-nanometer wafers, a crucial industry component.

China’s moves in the semiconductor industry are reshaping the industry’s global dynamics. Major US suppliers including Qualcomm have reported lower revenues and are lobbying against sanctions on exports to China. Industry experts are expecting the US share in the global semiconductor market to drop about 10 percent and revenue to decline more than 20 percent in the next three to five years.

As an attempt to address such issues, the China Semiconductor Industry Association and the US-based Semiconductor Industry Association have formed a working group to discuss how to resolve issues such as intellectual property, trade policy and encryption.

The rise of Chinese players as well as the actions of the US, the European Union and other governments will make competition in the industry more intense. China’s semiconductor industry has clearly entered a new era, as its competitiveness is sharpening and its structure is changing. Supply and value chains in the rest of the world are changing accordingly.

Different types of players are jostling for position in the evolving value chain. Incumbents and disrupters, foreign and local, along with State-owned and privately owned enterprises, are looking to compete, innovate and collaborate.

TSMC’s latest investments may solidify its position globally. In April, TSMC earmarked $2.87 billion to expand its Nanjing facilities and announced plans for a $12 billion factory in the US state of Arizona, covering two major global markets.

The European Union also outsources a lot of its design and manufacturing capabilities and is now offering subsidies for new chip plants in Europe. The industry is moving toward the more advanced 5-, 3-and 2-nm chips.

Moore’s law, which posits that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles every two years or so, seems to have reached its limit, and innovation in the semiconductor industry may have reached a bottleneck. Disruptions in core semiconductor technologies could take place, potentially resulting in major structural changes in the industry.

Companies now face an evolving and new strategic landscape. They will need to re-imagine the future landscape of the global semiconductor industry, in which China will play an increasingly large and more critical role.

China Daily | Understanding ‘Dual Circulation’ Policy

Understanding ‘Dual Circulation’ Policy Important For Companies

By Edward Tse

2021-05-23

A recent article authored by Dr. Tse was published by China Daily on May 23, 2021.

There appears to be considerable confusion about what China’s “dual circulation” economic policy really means and what would be its implications for individual companies.

It was over a year ago when the “dual circulation” policy was announced during the Politburo Standing Committee meeting on May 14, 2020, which was later incorporated into the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) proposals announced in October.

The simple narrative is that the “dual circulation” strategy aims at boosting both domestic and overseas markets, with the two complementing each other. Growth in domestic production, distribution and consumption is expected to become the key driver of economic growth, spurring technological innovation and expansion of domestic supply chains, and boosting China’s role in global supply chains.

The “dual circulation” policy was devised in the wake of two key developments.

The first was disruption in global trade because of disputes between China and the United States and later because of adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The general expectation is that international trade patterns will remain skewed going forward.

The second is the continuing rise in domestic demand. The middle class is believed to have swelled to about 400 million, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Not only is the size of the middle-class population likely to keep growing, but the composition of consumption, too, is likely to keep moving up the value chain, demanding newer and more innovative products. Domestic demand is growing rapidly due to a number of reasons, most importantly some specific policies launched by the Chinese government. Consumption has in fact become increasingly important in China’s economy. According to the Bureau of Statistics, consumption accounted for 54.3 percent of China’s GDP in 2020, an increase of 10 percentage points in a decade. Important is the fact that the country’s effective control of the pandemic resulted in a rapid recovery of consumer demand.

The Chinese government is apparently focused upon stimulating domestic consumption, driving high-quality growth and continuing the restructuring and upgrading of the supply side.

Among policies that are boosting and upgrading domestic demand are those related to areas such as new-energy vehicles, carbon neutrality, public health, rural revitalization, mega regional city clusters development and the like. New demand patterns are evolving and the economic landscape is changing.

On the supply side, the Chinese government will continue to push consolidation of excess capacities in sectors where it is necessary to do so. The increasing prevalence of technology and innovation across different industry sectors is leading to upgrading of the supply chains, and this is strengthening China’s position as a major hub for global supply chains.

As supply chains in China become stronger and more resilient to changing demand patterns, its position as an export base will continue to improve. At the same time, demand for imports of agricultural products, raw materials, high-end parts, precision machinery, high-tech medical devices, luxury consumer goods and the like see spectacular growth, making China a major market for overseas suppliers.

Clearly, a new era of globalization is evolving. If we call the first tranche of globalization that began some decades ago “Globalization 1.0”, perhaps we can term the second phase “Globalization 2.0”. The fundamental difference is that while demand in Globalization 1.0 was primarily from the US and other Western developed countries and China (and other developing countries) was the principal supplier, in Globalization 2.0, China will become a major demand center as well as a supply center. It will be home to mammoth global supply chains and shall itself be a major market for the entire world.

While Globalization 2.0 will probably be the main trend going forward, certain levels of regionalization and localization of supply chains will be inevitable, partly due to economics and technology, and partly due to geopolitics. The interplay between the new wave of globalization and the deglobalization that many believe has started will lead to many new trends, some expected and some not quite so.

Nonetheless, China’s role in the world will become even more important. For many businesses, China’s importance as a market and as a global or regional supply base will continue to strengthen. However, there is no room for companies to be complacent as the overall context of China, particularly its policies and competitive landscape, will continue to evolve extremely fast. What might have worked yesterday might not work tomorrow.

China has increasingly become an epicenter of business innovations. The incredible pace and intensity of innovations in China means that companies that want to stand out will need to be extremely innovative.

For foreign companies, the key questions are agile adaptation of strategy and organization by their operations in China and adjustment of global strategy treating China as the core. Their ability to continuously transform themselves commensurate with the changing context will be critical.

For Chinese companies, the ability to continuously improve their overall capabilities, to be at the front end of the innovation curve, and (for some) to be more internationalized will be the key.

The “dual circulation” policy does not mean China will close its doors and expel foreign companies. Conversely, it implies an even more open economy providing more market access to foreign as well as non-State-owned Chinese companies. In fact, it is a key mechanism for the Chinese government to strengthen its positioning on globalization and multilateralism. Companies, foreign or local, should adapt their strategies and organizations in tune with these changes.

CGTN | Foreign MNCs in China: Key Strategic Questions

By Edward Tse

2021-05-14

A recent article authored by Dr. Tse was published by CGTN on May 14, 2021.

Editor’s note: Edward Tse is the founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm with roots in China. The article reflects the author’s opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

China’s role in international trade, global supply chains and the world in general is expanding alongside its growing economy. Many countries in different parts of the world are currently undergoing major changes of multiple dimensions that are causing great uncertainty and unpredictability. Chinese President Xi Jinping also stated, we are now in a period of “massive change unseen in the last millennium.”

For many foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) operating in China, the expectation is that the upside potential of the Chinese market will keep growing and China being a global supply base will become even more important. The 2021 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China) shows that 75 percent of companies are optimistic about market growth and economic recovery in the next two years. Moreover, 61 percent of companies view China as a priority investment destination and are confident that China will further open itself to foreign investment.

Many MNCs are trying to figure out what the latest policy announcements, such as the 14th Five-Year Plan and Vision 2035, really mean.

The 14th Five-Year Plan put its emphasis on the quality of development, implying that innovation and technological independence are to be treated as critical areas. The Trump administration’s restraints on exports of certain core technology products such as high-end semiconductor chips to China has triggered China’s resolve to pursue technological self-reliance. Advanced manufacturing is to be used to fix issues in areas such as key components, materials, software and fundamental systems to develop more innovative and competitive value chains with a higher “value-added”content in priority areas.

Peter Wennink, head of ASML, a leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment in the semiconductor industry, told POLITICO in an interview that Europe should not close off exports to China like the U.S. since “If you shut out the Chinese with export control measures, you’ll force them to strive toward tech sovereignty, in their case real tech sovereignty, in 15 years’ time they’ll be able to do it all by themselves, the market [for European suppliers] will be gone.”

The 14th Five-Year Plan proposes a “dual circulation” economic strategy, to push both the domestic market, as well as overseas markets, with progress in the two complementing each other. Acceleration of growth in domestic production, distribution and consumption will be the driving force, spurring technological innovation, expansion of domestic supply chains and at the same time, helping to cement China’s role in the global value chain.

The Vision 2035 lays out the social and economic development goals over the next 15 years with the target being to build a modernized economy by 2035. Continued promotion of urbanization and further strengthening of regional trade with ASEAN countries, Belt and Road Initiative participants, as well as other economies are the other principal features.

China is seeking a quicker evolution of its role in the global geopolitical environment. China’s relationships with the U.S., EU and neighboring countries are viewed as the key to the shifting geopolitical equations.

One major milestone has been the Foreign Investment Law promulgated in March 2019, which puts foreign enterprises at par with domestic companies in many ways. Another landmark reform was the Unreliable Entity List (September 2020) that protects legitimate rights and interests of all kinds of market entities. Additionally, the National Negative List has pruned the number of restrictive measures by 17.5 percent compared to its 2019 version.

These are clear signals of how China is trying to make life easier for foreign companies. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told China Daily, “For me, it is easier to invest in China than China is allowed to invest in Germany or some other places.”

China is accelerating deregulation and its domestic market is expanding. Supportive policies and the growing ingenuity of local enterprises are together generating what’s possibly the world’s most competitive economy. The dynamics of competition and collaboration are highly intensive and are expected to impact growth significantly, going forward.

Though the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Huawei, ZTE and some other Chinese tech companies citing “national security”, so far, China has not sanctioned U.S. or other western tech companies in a similar manner. In July 2020, President Xi Jinping wrote to CEOs of 18 global MNCs underscoring China’s desire to welcome foreign MNCs to stay and continue to operate in China.

For global MNCs, this changing context raises a whole new set of questions and considerations:

– What explicit and salient changes are taking place in terms of market access for specific industry sectors?

– What does the evolving geopolitics mean to MNCs in China? For example, to what extent would “decoupling”take place and how?

– What are China’s “red lines” (that is, boundaries that foreign companies should not trespass)?

– How would new trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) shift the composition of the Chinese market, particularly as a hub of supply chains?

– What does “self-sufficiency in technology” mean for foreign MNCs operating in China?

– How would data sovereignty issues be addressed?

– What are the possible scenarios of the future and how should companies interpret the likely scenarios for strategic business decisions?

– Is the changing landscape likely to impact footprints of MNCs in China and their global supply chains?

– Against the evolving strategic context, how should global MNCs re-define corporate structures in China and whether they need to redefine relationships with other companies and organizations?

In many cases, organizational structure and corporate relationships were built decades ago. As the landscape and the goalposts change, these dimensions too may have to change.

Many MNCs believe China’s role in the world will continue to expand and yet externalities such as geopolitics and policy promulgations give rise to questions that need to be addressed. Company strategists need to envision and draw plausible scenarios to make tangible business decisions. However, the knowledge and information disconnect between the global headquarters and the China team of MNCs are often significant.

Foreign MNCs clearly need to ask themselves if and how they should continue to invest more in China, navigating through the path the most recent changes are likely to lead to. In the extreme case, those who don’t see a future in China need to figure out how to cash out and that can be a very tough decision to make.

Companies need to be much more sophisticated and nuanced in sorting out these questions, guarding against risks and keeping growth options open. China is not simply a market or a global supply base. It is fast becoming a platform where the best strategic thinking is being developed and institutionalized. Companies operating in China can now find and acquire global competitive advantages.

Caixin Global | China’s Importance to Multinationals

China’s Importance to Multinationals Means They Must Approach It With Greater Nuance

By Edward Tse

2021-05-05

Originally published on Caixin Global on May 5, 2021.

Many multinational corporations (MNCs) have China at the top their minds these days. China has become an important, if not the most important, market for many MNCs.

Then there are those who are just entering China or have recently expanded their operations in China. These companies are trying to figure out ways to capture the upside of the China market. And of course, some who have been affected by geopolitical issues like Xinjiang cotton are pondering over what to do next.

China’s economy is not stagnant and continues to evolve. GDP grew 2.3% in 2020 despite the pandemic and was up an incredible 18.3% in the first quarter this year, indicating a strong recovery. GDP growth for the whole of 2021 is expected to be 6%. FDI inflows in 2020 at $163 billion was the highest in the world and external trade continues to be vibrant. Two-way trade with the U.S. shot up to $659.5 billion and that with the EU was $710 billion in 2020.

A recent study by the American Chamber of Commerce has shown that 70% of US companies are planning further investments in China, and according to the “Business Confidence Survey” released by the German Chamber of Commerce, 72% of respondents are planning further investments in China.

Despite the antagonism during the Trump era, China has continued to tread the reform path and expand market access to foreign companies.

One example is opening of the previously rather restricted financial services sector. BlackRock is to set up a wholly-owned asset management business in China and in January, PayPal became the first third-party payment platform with 100% foreign ownership in China.

Foreign automakers are no longer required to form joint ventures with local companies. Tesla has its Gigafactory in Shanghai and Volkswagen has raised its stake in its joint venture with local automaker JAC to 75%.

A major reform milestone was the Foreign Investment Law promulgated in March 2019 which puts foreign enterprises at par with domestic counterparts in many ways. Another landmark piece of reform was the Unreliable Entity List announced in September 2020 to protect legitimate rights and interests of all kinds of market entities. Besides, the National Negative List has pruned the number of restrictive measures by 17.5% compared to its 2019 version. These are clear signals of how China is trying to reduce barriers to foreign companies.

The new 14th Five-Year Plan stipulates that quality of development will be a top priority for China through 2025, making innovation and technological independence even more critical. Advanced manufacturing shall be used to fix issues in areas such as key components, materials, software, and fundamental systems while developing a more innovative and competitive value chain with a higher “value-added” content in priority areas. External and internal components are expected to complement each other.

In addition, Vision 2035 lays out social and economic development goals for the next 15 years, the target being to build a modernized economy by 2035. Continued promotion of urbanization and further strengthening of regional trade and investment partnerships with ASEAN, Belt and Road participants, as well as other economies are the other principal features.

China’s goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is massive, ambitious and challenging. It will require close collaboration with many stakeholders.

While a range of new business models have already emerged in China during the pandemic. The above major initiatives will inevitably create many more major opportunities across the board and for some, potential risks.

China is accelerating deregulation and its market is expanding. The right government policies and the growing ingenuity of local enterprises are together generating what’s possibly the world’s most competitive economy. The dynamics of competition and collaboration is highly intensive in China and is expected to stay intensive going forward.

As innovation continues to progress rapidly, the ability of foreign MNCs to participate in China’s innovation game is both an opportunity and a challenge. Opportunity — because innovation implies new sources of value creation. Challenge — because others too will innovate. MNCs who were earlier into copying products from home and pasting them in Chinese markets are now trying to tailor products for the Chinese customer. They are learning from China and are innovating in and for China.

It’s been a cliché to say that the great majority of foreign MNCs cannot ignore China. It is even truer these days because of China’s vital importance in MNCs’ global value chains as both a market and a supply base, besides a source of inspiration for knowledge and ideas.

Going forward, China’s major initiatives are providing more opportunities for businesses local and foreign. However, to capture the upside, MNCs need to approach China in a much more sophisticated manner, knowing where and how the risks will manifest and how they can be handled.

One source of risk is geopolitics which have seeped into all walks of life. The recent imbroglio about Xinjiang cotton suggests that MNCs need to understand that like many other markets, there are some “red lines” in the Chinese market too and these have to be carefully taken into account when making decisions. CEOs need to have greater clarity of thought for effective strategic decision-making.

Companies need to communicate with their target consumers in a manner aligned with the evolving consumer needs and technological changes. A digital mindset and approach can be very critical when determining the winners. Brand winners in China will increasingly be those that can tick as many of the relevant success factor boxes as possible, whilst not crossing the Chinese consumers’ red lines. It is a function of a (foreign) company’s understanding of and capabilities in the China context.

Geopolitics would impact how the future interplay between globalization and deglobalization would evolve and the role of China in this interplay. It will in turn impact issues such as global governance, technology, data sovereignty and local requirements. These issues and people’s needs embody implications for strategic plans for MNCs’ operations in China or for that matter their global strategies with China at the core.

MNCs need to develop different ways of capturing China’s upside while responding to different risks and they must always know where the red line is. The right strategic evaluation of plans and actions is mandatory for all multinational companies who aspire to stay relevant in the global ballgame. China offers MNCs lots of upside but approaching China will also require more sophistication.

SCMP | How Biden’s Plan Takes a Page Out of China’s Playbook

How Biden’s ‘Build Back Better’ Plan Takes a Page Out of China’s Playbook

By Edward Tse

29 Apr, 2021

Originally published by South China Morning Post on April 29, 2021. All rights reserved.

US President Joe Biden inherited much from Donald Trump – including trade tariffs, sanctions on Chinese tech companies and curbs on exports of core technology – yet he is clearly following a different track.

While Trump was obsessed with containing and weakening China, Biden is aware that the real issues are domestic. His team has said more than once that domestic issues need to be addressed and US competitiveness enhanced to fight China’s growing clout.

On March 31, Biden unveiled a US$2 trillion plan to upgrade the nation’s infrastructure and bolster the post-pandemic economy over eight years, to be funded largely by higher corporate taxes.

In a conversation with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Biden suggested that democratic countries should have an infrastructure plan akin to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which should benefit “those communities around the world that need help”.

A US national security commission recently proposed an integrated national strategy to better compete with China in the arena of artificial intelligence.

The plan outlined the need to rebuild the domestic chip supply chain, stay at least two generations ahead of China in microelectronics, and gradually increase investment to US$32 billion per year for the US to win the AI race. Biden has since ordered a review of US semiconductor supply chains.

Biden also promised, in the election run-up, to revitalise US manufacturing. Days after assuming office, on January 25, he announced the Buy American plan for a greater share of annual federal government purchases, which are worth about US$600 billion, to go to US manufacturers.

It is clear that the US government intends to play a major role in expanding American industry. Yet many US politicians, mainstream media and pundits have often criticised the government’s role in China’s economic development – in picking winners, providing subsidies, tilting the playing field and ignoring market rules.

Governments playing a role in a country’s economic development is nothing new. Late US president Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal was essentially a clutch of major government-sponsored programmes that helped the US get out of the Great Depression.

It was only in the early 1980s that Ronald Reagan turned to neoliberal economic policies, proclaiming that “government is the problem”. This gained further momentum after the Soviet Union collapsed.

China began its reform and opening up at the end of the 1970s under Deng Xiaoping, who opted to experiment with a market economy while retaining the state-planning approach. In the past four decades, this has yielded excellent results for the Chinese economy

.

This approach essentially consists of a three-layer model and a dual economic structure.

The central government sets the direction and the agenda. At the other end, extremely diversified and dynamic entrepreneurs and businesses leverage government policies, technology and shifting demand patterns to push innovation.

Local governments function as bridges between central government policies and entrepreneurs by providing funding and support.

While the dual structure of state and non-state-owned companies can lead to glitches, it also creates significant synergies. A case in point is China’s massive infrastructure expansion over the past few decades.

State-owned enterprises were able to build a high-speed railway network that is the world’s most extensive because they do not evaluate these massive infrastructure projects on narrow economic viability.

The prime considerations are broader social and economic goals, and whether it serves people’s needs. Yet all businesses, including foreign companies, benefit from the infrastructure.

This approach, fine-tuned over decades, is clearly effective, as the Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented speed and intensity, while achieving critical goals such as poverty alleviation, pandemic control, scientific research and space exploration.

The Chinese government does not just control and dictate, it also sets the agenda, enables and implements.

That China has lifted around 100 million people out of poverty over the past eight years shows the effectiveness of its development approach with its clear processes and key performance indicators. Its success cannot be attributed to merely having thrown money at the issue or a few “draconian” measures.

Can and should the Biden administration replicate China’s approach? While Washington continues to view China as a rival and remains obsessed with containing it, an alternative point of view could be helpful.

That Biden’s team is taking a page out of China’s playbook implies that there is value in viewing China as a benchmark. Contending with another strong country that follows a different system can help a country better reflect on itself and adjust accordingly. I suggest that this is a more constructive way to view the great power contest.

China has picked up a great deal from the Western economic approach and benefited greatly from that learning. Should the US not also learn from China? After all, the Pacific Ocean is large enough to accommodate two major powers.

 

【Quote of Today】April 16th

China provides a massive platform for companies to innovate and compete. New and creative corporate relationships are being created for gaining new competitive advantages. Competition will breed the best and the best will become even better.

【Quote of Today】April 15th

“I would compare the new auto landscape in China with the Warring States period in the Chinese history. A multitude of players each looking out to increase its influence and dominance over others. As such, a burst of new strategies, most notably the notion of “vertical and horizontal alliances” (合纵连橫 )emerged and was widely practiced. It was also a period of profilc thought leadership on different ideas and philosophies, laying the thought foundation for China for many millennia to come.

Collaborations and competition in an intensively disruptive environment on top of the world’s largest platform, aided by a highly effective governance model. The conditions for an outburst of more innovations, corporate formations and new basis of competitive advantages are in place.”

China Daily | Auto Industry Gets Smart, Adapts to Market Changes

By Edward Tse and Bill Russo

2021-04-14

Gao Feng Advisory CEO Dr. Edward Tse’s article entitled, “Auto Industry Gets Smart, Adapts to Market Changes” (co-authored with Bill Russo) was published on China Daily on 14th April. Dr. Tse said China’s auto industry has entered a new disruptive era with plenty of players joining the new game. New corporate relationships are being formed creating new collaborations but also competition. This will lead to emergence of stronger players and will weed out marginal ones.

While auto sales in China suffered a significant drop of 42.4 percent in the first quarter of 2020, they have steadily rebounded and, in 2020, exceeded 25 million units, accounting for 33 percent of the world’s auto sales.

The Chinese government has made development of new energy vehicles a priority for the country. In September, President Xi Jinping announced the plan to have the country’s CO2 emissions peak before 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Two months later, the State Council, China’s Cabinet, also announced a 15-year (2021-35) industry development plan, setting clear targets for penetration of new energy vehicles: to achieve 20 percent by 2025, 40 percent by 2030, and more than 50 percent by 2035.Major government incentives include tax exemptions and support for the construction of electric vehicle charging stations.

As a result, new energy vehicles accounted for 5.4 percent of total auto sales in China last year and are expected to grow to 6.9 percent this year, according to the China Association of Automotive Manufacturers.

Vehicles are now considered to be the next big thing in the era of the internet of things, so intelligent connectivity is becoming standard in today’s vehicles.

Along the way, China’s auto industry is also rapidly commercializing self-driving vehicle technology. L4(a high degree of driving automation) robo-taxi trials are already taking place in a number of Chinese cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Changsha.

L4 autonomous vehicles are also being used for the movement of goods. In July, Chinese automaker SAIC announced its quasi-commercial operation of a self-developed “5G plus L4” smart heavy truck at Yangshan Port in Shanghai. Chinese tech giants like JD.com, Alibaba and Meituan are all experimenting with unmanned last-mile delivery.

The Chinese government has also relaxed its requirement for ownership by foreign original equipment manufacturers. Previously, they could only operate in China through 50/50 joint ventures with local Chinese partners, but now they can have full ownership. Tesla entered China through a wholly owned operation based in Shanghai, and Volkswagen restructured its joint venture with Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp to have 75 percent ownership.

Investments are ramping up in China, the world’s largest auto market. In 2020, the amount of investment and financing in the nation’s automobile and transportation sector reached $8.6 billion, predominantly in new energy and autonomous vehicles.

Attracted by the upward exponential growth potential of this industry, new players with different backgrounds are entering the market.

For example, Internet giant Baidu has set up a joint venture with local carmaker Geely, which recently built the next generation of smart vehicles.

In addition, Xiaomi, the world’s third-largest smartphone maker, has announced it will set up a new business aimed at making electric cars that will be led by the company’s CEO, Lei Jun, with $10 billion of investment over the next 10 years.

Startups are popping up along the entire value chain of the auto industry. Horizon Robotics, a 5-year-old company specializing in artificial intelligence chips for autonomous vehicles, aims to raise more than $700 million in its series C round. The new capital injection will be used to accelerate the development and commercialization of the next-generation L4 and L5(full driving automation) autonomous chips. Neolix, a self-driving logistics startup based in Beijing, is chasing after the rapid growth of China’s autonomous vehicle market and says it has sold more than 200 vehicles to such customers as Huawei, Alibaba and JD, with the vehicles deployed in 20cities throughout China.

At the same time, incumbent original equipment manufacturers have been repositioning themselves in order to strengthen their competitive advantages in the new game.

In October 2018, Daimler’s mobility service and Geely announced the formation of a joint venture to provide a premium ride-hailing service called StarRides. The service, which was launched in December 2019 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, now covers the majority of China’s metropolises and popular travel destinations.

As one of the biggest domestic players in China, Geely is aiming to become a full-range transportation solutions provider through self-built capabilities and partnerships. Over the past decade, Geely has launched Lynk& Co (a connected car brand providing personalized mobility services), Polestar (a premium electric vehicle brand that uses a subscription model), Caocao (a new energy vehicle ride-hailing platform), and has acquired Volvo Cars, London Taxi Co, Terrafugia (the first flying car company in the world) and has signed strategic agreements with Baidu, Tencent, Foxconn and Daimler to provide vehicle-related services.

In the past, the dominant form of corporate structure in China’s auto industry was joint ventures between Chinese and foreign companies. Going forward, a plethora of new corporate relationships will surface, ranging from wholly owned operations to various types of joint and corporate ventures.

Demand and supply will continue to increase significantly. It is quite possible that oversupply will emerge, at least in certain segments. More rigorous customer demand might increasingly emerge, new policies reshaping the industry will continue to evolve, and hyper-intensive competition will manifest.

To this end, past success won’t be a guarantee for future success. Some companies will end up being marginalized and perhaps be squeezed out of the picture. The winning companies will be the ones that can learn, adapt and strengthen along the way.

Caixin | Can Foreign Brands Still Survive in the Chinese Market?

By Edward Tse

2021-04-09

Originally published by Caixin Global on April 9, 2021.

The recent row over Xinjiang cotton has caused much debate and discussion on whether this controversy constitutes an opportunity for local Chinese brands in apparel and sportswear to capitalize on the situation as Chinese consumers boycott foreign brands like H&M, Nike and others.

Some observers suggested that Chinese consumers are shunning foreign brands due to nationalistic inclinations, and so local brands now have the upper hand.

Some say foreign brands don’t have a chance in China anymore. They should get out soon. So, do foreign brands have a future in China?

In apparel and sportswear, as in other consumer product categories, competition in China has been fierce for some time with a wide range of foreign and local brands fighting it out in arguably the world’s most competitive and fastest growing market.

For a long time, foreign brands have led in this competition, especially major players such as Nike and Adidas. However, local brands are catching up over the years, narrowing the gap between the two groups. The recent Xinjiang cotton episode has given these local brands a further boost. For example, Li Ning’s share price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange surged about 10% on March 25th, while Anta’s rose about 7.8%.

According to the latest financial report, Anta earned a net profit of $794 million in 2020, surpassing Adidas’ net profit of $504 million for the first time.

The cotton episode has certainly given local brands a chance to increase their market share at the expense of foreign brands. But, what’s the real interplay between local and global brands in China? To understand this, we should also look at some other sectors.

In the auto sector, foreign brands, particularly leading German and Japanese brands have traditionally dominated the premium segment. More recently, American brands such as Cadillac and Lincoln have also expanded their presence in this segment.

On the other hand, local brands dominate in the mid-to-lower tier segments, but some foreign brands are also active.

In the electric vehicles sector, U.S. brand Tesla is the front runner, with the Chinese “new force” brands such as Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto and others all trying to get a piece of the action.

At the same time, incumbent OEMs, whether foreign or local, are also offering electric vehicles while other players such as internet giants Xiaomi and Baidu, mobility player Didi Chuxing, contract manufacturer Foxconn, and real estate developer Evergrande have all entered the race.

The EV market is sure to become ultra-competitive and, so far there is no clear winner in the auto-and-mobility sector.

In smartphones, local brands Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo are the market share leaders. Huawei, severely hit by U.S. sanctions on its chips supply, remains popular among Chinese consumers despite an appreciable drop in its market share. And Apple is still popular among Chinese consumers especially at the top end of the market.

In the cosmetics sector, Western brands such as Guerlain, Chanel, and Lancome have dominated the premium and luxury segments for years, accounting for about 50% of the total cosmetics market. Japanese brands such as Shiseido and Korean brands such as Sulwhasoo and Whoo are also quite popular in the middle segment. In the mid-to-lower tier segments, local brands, including Pechoin, Perfect Diary, and Herborist have registered huge growth in recent years. According to a joint report issued by Tencent and Kantar released in May 2019, local cosmetics products accounted for 56% of the market in the mid-to-lower tier segments.

In the appliances sector, Chinese brands now dominate the market. Leading brands include Midea, Gree and Haier, all local. However, foreign brand Dyson has carved its own niche position given its innovative image and great reputation in China.

There’s no question that the quality and quantity of Chinese brands have taken large strides over the years. Incumbent players in general have become more competitive, while new players have emerged all over, with some dropping out along the way but some growing into major competitors in their own right. They have increasingly shed the image of being of low quality and cheap, and have built their respective brand positions.

Surveys such as the Prophet Brand Relevance Index have shown that over the years there has been a marked shift in consumer preference for local brands over global brands. In the 2019 Prophet Brand Relevance Index, seven of the top 10 relevant brands are local whereas a decade ago, the top 10 would have been predominantly, if not entirely, foreign brands.

Chinese consumers are also evolving. As their incomes increase, they are becoming more health, lifestyle and quality conscious, especially those who reside in upper-tier cities. They have also become more confident and more knowledgeable across the board as access to the world has become easier.

For brands to connect with their target consumers, their go-to-market techniques are also becoming increasingly more critical as Chinese consumers are becoming more digital savvy. Social commerce, for instance, has become an important way to connect.

To this end, Chinese brands are often leading the trend as these brand operators are often closer to the dynamism of Chinese consumers. Foreign brands, on the other hand, typically tend to play catch-up.

Pundits have long asserted that nationalism plays a significant role in Chinese consumers’ brand preferences. There is possibly some truth in that, but to assume that it is the only, or the predominant factor affecting the choice of brands is overly simplistic. However, this has often been used by failing foreign brand managers as an excuse for losing out to local brands.

The impact of the Xinjiang cotton episode will likely evolve over time in a manner similar to that of the NBA episode in 2019. (Chinese NBA fans reacted strongly to the then Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey’s tweet on Hong Kong’s politics and China’s CCTV suspended broadcasts of NBA games which returned to the Chinese TV screens only after about 15 months). However, incidents of this kind simply highlight the fact that there are “red lines” in the Chinese market (as in many other markets) that companies need to fully understand and carefully take into account in their decision-making process.

Company executives understand the importance of “putting the customers first,” a basic tenet to doing business. As geopolitics have seeped into all business sectors these days, CEOs need to have sharper clarity of thought in the process of strategic decision-making. Any compromise with the basic tenet must be made in face of clear tradeoffs between its pros and cons.

So, we must to go back to the basics of business. Brands who will win in China are those who understand the quickly evolving consumer needs, can anticipate and properly interpret Chinese government’s policies, and how technology’s evolution would impact both the demand side and the supply side of the picture.

Importantly, companies need to better understand how to communicate with their target consumers in a manner that is commensurate with the evolving consumer needs and technological changes. A digital mindset and approach are increasingly critical in determining the winners. Foreign companies which are structurally behind the local companies in this regard must figure out an approach that is closer to the real happenings in the market to prevent themselves from losing out on this.

In the end, brands winning in China will increasingly be those that can tick as many of the relevant boxes in key factors of success as possible while making sure not to cross the Chinese consumers’ red lines. It is a function of the company’s capabilities in the China context, where its leadership plays a major role. Ultimately, whether your brand is foreign or local is probably not the most important factor.

CGTN | What Lessons Can Foreign Companies Learn?

What Lessons Can Foreign Companies Learn from Xinjiang Cotton Episode?

By Edward Tse and Gao Yanping

2020-04-01

A recent article authored by Dr. Tse was published by CGTN on April 1, 2021. It was co-authored with Gao Yanping.

Editor’s note: Edward Tse is the founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and Gao Yanping is a researcher and a former senior editor of Guancha.cn and a business journalist at Oriental Outlook and Xinhua News Agency.The article reflects the author’s opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Several multinational retail brands including H&M, Nike, Adidas, Gap, New Balance, Burberry and Uniqlo are being criticized by Chinese consumers over their stance on alleged “forced labor” in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

These companies have launched statements on their position on Xinjiang’s affairs and would not use Xinjiang’s cotton in their products. The statements were based on a report released by the Better Cotton Initiative (BCI), a non-governmental organization that claims to promote better standards in cotton farming and practices across 21 countries.

This series of events enraged Chinese netizens who have called for boycotts of these brands. Chinese business partners of the brands have moved quickly to cut ties with them. From popular Chinese celebrities who have called off their endorsement deals to shopping malls taking down H&M’s billboards, to online shopping giants dropping H&M products, to mobile phone app stores removing H&M apps, Chinese responses have been overwhelming. Chinese netizens’ reaction has been contagious on social media. On Weibo, one of China’s most popular social media platforms, the hashtag “I support Xinjiang cotton” has been the top trending topic on Weibo with more than 7.11 billion hits by March 30.

Unlike Apple which removed a police-tracking app during Hong Kong’s protests last year and admitted “the app violated its rules,” these retail companies seem to be indifferent to the public mood so far. H&M released a statement saying that it “respects Chinese consumers as always” and that it “does not represent any political position.”

It’s very clear that today, geopolitics has seeped into businesses big time. Geopolitics has always been a major role historically in some industries like oil and gas where the location and quality of resources are intricately tied to the national sovereignty of countries.

But since the former Donald Trump administration exercised American foreign policy especially on China, geopolitics has become the center stage for many businesses.

Tech companies like Huawei and ZTE were sanctioned by the U.S. government on national security grounds. Chinese tech companies includin the likes of SenseTime and DJI were placed on the “Entity List” of the U.S. government as the U.S. believes they pose a national threat. Companies on the “Entity List” are subject to U.S. restrictions in the export and transfer of certain sensitive technologies.

But it’s not only tech companies that are affected by geopolitics. The argument over “forced labor” on Xinjiang cotton-picking shows that industries such as apparel and sportswear can also be sucked into such a swirl.

In a way, this is unfortunate because it does not need to be so complicated but external forces seem to be driving businesses in that direction and it seems like geopolitics has become a part of normal strategic decision-making for company executives. No longer can company executives only focus on business operations per se, they also need to incorporate institutional capabilities to address issues that go beyond day-to-day business operations.

Company executives should exercise common-sense judgment before they make decisions that could have serious implications. In this case, a simple check on the level of mechanization of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang would cause the CEO of any large multinational company to double-check if the alleged “forced labor” in Xinjiang is true.

According to the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, more than 90 percent of cotton picking in northern Xinjiang is highly mechanized, while southern Xinjiang has raised its mechanization rate to around 40 percent, resulting in an overall mechanization rate of over 75 percent. Paradoxically, BCI’s Shanghai office has issued a statement saying that after careful audits, they did not find any use of forced labor in cotton picking in Xinjiang, a position that is contradictory to that of BCI headquarters.

Beyond cotton picking, the claim that “forced labor” is used in Xinjiang is controversial and for many, has not been substantiated. While there are plenty of allegations, there are also plenty who have pointed out that the claims are not substantiated, with the alleged evidence unfounded or manipulated.

Foreign companies’ CEOs need to think carefully about the implications of their actions. What reactions would be generated among the Chinese consumers? How would the competitive landscape shift in particular in favor of the local brands, whose competitiveness has been improving anyway? What would be the financial implications to the company because of the action taken, not only within the China market, but also outside?

Companies’ CEOs like to say, “We always put our customers first.” However, the Xinjiang cotton episode has shown that many CEOs don’t necessarily abide by that rule with respect to Chinese consumers – arguably one of the most important consumer groups in the world. At least the business leaders haven’t shown they have explicitly and carefully gone through a thought process of making sure they understand the full implications of what they do.

We are not advocating that foreign companies must kowtow to China because of the financial implications to their businesses. We are suggesting that companies’ CEOs should have clarity in their thought processes in matters of such critical importance and to always keep the basic value of any business, which is to put its customer value as a top priority, in mind. Any compromise of that basic tenet must be weighed carefully against the trading off between its pros and cons.

China Daily | Impact of Innovations by China Continues to Spread

By Edward Tse2021-03-16

On March 16 2021, Dr. Tse’s latest op-ed on China Daily on the latest on China and how MNCs are reflecting upon what China’s innovations mean to them and how they change the fundamental mindset of how global MNCs view the world. To this end, the global businesses are much ahead of politicians and their lobbyists.
During the two sessions in Beijing, the annual gathering of China’s top legislative and political advisory bodies, which concluded on Thursday, the government announced that its GDP growth target for this year is “above 6 percent”.In January, the International Monetary Fund had predicted that China’s GDP would grow at 8.1 percent this year, accounting for more than 25 percent of global GDP growth.

Prompted by the United States government’s sanctions on core technologies such as high-end semiconductor chips, Beijing has committed to building up core technologies within China.

Last year, 227.6 billion yuan ($35.02 billion) was pumped into China’s semiconductor industry, a stunning 407 percent increase from the previous year. Central and local governments have launched hundreds of policies or guidance funds to support the industry’s growth, while venture capital investment into the sector more than tripled from 2019.

The auto industry is another example of an industry undergoing major innovations as new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, connectivity and mobility as a service are all taking place at the same time. Various trials of autonomous driving are also taking place in cities in China.

In the consumer sector, the internet continues to drive different forms of innovation. Social commerce, for instance, has become an important channel for companies to meet rising consumer demand and adopt new business models enabled by innovative technology, such as 5G and AI, to offer more customized and interactive services.

China has announced a comprehensive plan to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities by 2025 via eight priority areas in order to sharpen its global competitiveness. The emphasis on advanced manufacturing remains an integral part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) and is aimed at fixing its weaknesses in areas such as key components, materials, software and fundamental systems over the next five years, while developing a more innovative, higher value-added industrial value chain to enhance its competitiveness in priority areas.

In September, President Xi Jinping announced that China will commit to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. This is a massive commitment, given China’s scale and historical reliance on fossil fuels. As Xi has called on all other countries to support global sustainability, China is also demonstrating that it is stepping up in addressing an issue that has long been a major challenge for the world.

While China eradicated domestic absolute poverty earlier this year, a herculean effort in its own right, it announced the establishment of the Rural Revitalization Bureau to consolidate and expand the nation’s achievements in poverty alleviation via leveraging a dynamic monitoring and assistance mechanism to prevent people from falling back into poverty. In addition, it will continue to improve infrastructure in resettlement areas and improve people’s capability to provide for themselves.

These major steps, plus many others, indicate that China will continue its reform and transition, which will in turn generate considerable economic growth.

Certainly, when most of the rest of the world is still suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, China is shining as one of the few bright spots for many foreign multinational corporations.

Even though Chinese innovators have begun to show up in significant numbers since the wireless internet became prevalent in China in the late 2000s, most multinationals were still unconvinced until Chinese innovation became a household phenomenon.

Fortunately, most multinationals today have come to realize the overwhelming impact of Chinese innovation, and many of them have begun to internalize how and what they can learn from the Chinese in this regard.

The head for China of a large US industrial company once told me that he thought he came to China to teach, but after some time in China, he recognized he was in China to learn. Another large US client told me their board of directors instructed the China team to seek how to leverage Chinese knowledge to help businesses in other parts of the world. BMW, for example, has taken its Munich-based Startup Garage program to China in order to gain exposure to new innovative technologies, such as electrification and automation, from a more advanced local ecosystem.

Big multinational businesses are now realizing that running businesses in different parts of the world requires different patterns, in particular realizing the differences between China and the West. It’s not a matter of what is right and what is wrong, but simply that different markets have very different contexts.

The insistence on a single path to the final goal is not very helpful. Pluralism naturally exists. To this end, the significant changes in multinational corporations due to their experiences in China provide the world with a good reference for how to view the world today.

CGTN | From Chaos to Order

By Edward Tse

2021-03-13

Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO, Dr. Edward Tse’s latest op-ed on CGTN on Hong Kong. He pointed out that there are actually two Hong Kong’s- an “Elite HK” and a “Mass HK.” And there is little trickling down from top to bottom. HK needs to address these deep-rooted issues. It will take some time and won’t be easy but with boldness, skills and commitment, Hong Kong can do it!

Editor’s note: Edward Tse is the founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm with roots in Greater China. He was born and raised in Hong Kong and lives in the HKSAR. The article reflects the author’s opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

With the enactment of the national security law in June 2020, the situation in Hong Kong is finally stabilizing and slowly returning to order. The riots and unlawful protests that have prevailed for over 12 months created major havoc to the entire Hong Kong community.

On March 11, China’s National People’s Congress approved the decision to improve Hong Kong’s electoral system, enforcing the notion of “patriots governing Hong Kong” which will in turn ensure the long-term viability of “One Country, Two Systems.” These changes were needed as radical politics in the past had severely hindered the operations of Hong Kong’s legislative process, causing for some time an almost “ungovernable” situation.

What’s the root cause of Hong Kong’s demise?

Wendy Hong, head of research of a large Hong Kong conglomerate group, pointed out that Hong Kong actually consists of “two Hong Kongs.” I agree with her assessment.

For a long time even before the handover, Hong Kong has suffered high levels of income inequality. This situation has become worse over time, resulting in two different Hong Kongs.

One Hong Kong – let’s call it “Elite Hong Kong” – is where Hong Kong’s businesses and professionals ruled. They are mostly in financial services, property development and high-end services sectors. They roam in Central, Admiralty and West Kowloon. With Hong Kong’s strong position as a regional financial hub, people and businesses engaging in this Hong Kong were doing very well financially. In fact, many of these people are recent returnees of highly educated people from the Chinese mainland or expatriates.

The other Hong Kong – let’s call it “Mass Hong Kong” – is where most Hong Kongers are and they are prevalent in sectors such as retail, food, construction, low-end services and others. The living standard of people in “Mass Hong Kong” has not improved much over the last couple of decades, while the general housing prices in Hong Kong have risen significantly in the meantime – thanks to a large part to the “Elite Hong Kong.” Many people in this Hong Kong live in poorly-conditioned sub-divided flats and many young people were disillusioned about their future.

There is little “trickling down” from “Elite Hong Kong.” People in “Mass Hong Kong” feel that they have been left behind. Most of them are local Hong Kongers or descendants of recent “single entry permit” immigrants from the Chinese mainland. When they saw people in “Elite Hong Kong” or even well-off visitors from the Chinese mainland buying high-end properties in Hong Kong, they placed their anger on anything and everything that was “mainland” or what they viewed as vested interest groups.

While the Chinese mainland has lifted 98.99 million poor rural residents out of poverty over the past eight years, Hong Kong has a poverty population of close to 1.5 million as of 2019, according to the Hong Kong Poverty Situation Report, in a city of population that is less than eight million.

There are a number of reasons for this.

Since the mainland’s opening up over 40 years ago, Hong Kong’s manufacturing has been hollowed out. Even though most of Hong Kong’s manufacturing back then wasn’t really sophisticated, it was a key source of employment for local people. Since then, many people were deprived of decent-quality job opportunities.

The land supply has chronically been limited to both real and man-made reasons. It has been a major reason why the housing prices have gone up so rapidly over the last several decades. Also, the small percentage of people in “Elite Hong Kong” who were able to afford the top-end Hong Kong properties was viewed as villains by many Hong Kongers who saw that home ownership is increasingly out of their reach.

Hong Kong’s government has a long-held approach of non-intervention, believing that market forces by themselves can sort everything out. This is a legacy left behind from the British colonial days and the administrative officers of the Hong Kong SAR government simply inherited that approach without seriously reflecting on the effectiveness of it as the general context evolved.

With the national security law now in place and the integration of the Greater Bay Area underway, we now have the opportunity to address these fundamental issues.

1. The Hong Kong government should be much bolder in creating new sources of land supply through “combined punches:” revitalization of “brown land,” including allocating a very small percentage of the most fringe areas in the parks for housing and a reasonable amount of reclamation in appropriate locations.

2. Hong Kong should leverage the Greater Bay Area which offers much more capacity in technology innovation and supply cluster bases. A lot has been written about this plan already and much of the focus will be on how Hong Kong should participate in the area’s technology and innovation development, leveraging especially Hong Kong’s capacity in universities and other higher institutions in research and development.

3. Hong Kong needs to cultivate new growth through what Wendy Hong calls “Industry 2.5.” Capitalizing on the strengths of Hong Kong’s services industries, “Industry 2.5” transforms the services industries by combining them with manufacturing-based industries, with areas such as luxury fashion, medical devices and aircraft parts services prime for the development of Hong Kong. The process will allow greater industrialization and diversification in Hong Kong’s economy, create more varied investment options and provide fresh employment opportunities.

4. Hong Kong should build investment funds investing in companies of various sizes. Hong Kong can undertake some of these funds by itself and some in collaboration with other cities in the Greater Bay Area. In fact, Shenzhen, for example, has been leveraging their own funds to nurture a large number of tech companies over the last several decades, transforming the city into a leading tech hub. By investing into portfolio companies, these companies can also be a source of innovation and “re-manufacturing” to Hong Kong and a source of employment for Hong Kong people.

5. Hong Kong should find a much better way to balance the interests between the big businesses and the masses. An extreme form of capitalism has been manifesting in Hong Kong for a long time, causing a structurally close relationship between certain big businesses and the local government. This imbalance is the root cause of many of Hong Kong’s deep-rooted issues and it should be rectified.

The incredible economic growth of the Chinese mainland over the last several decades was epitomized by how the government and businesses, big and small, state-owned and non-state-owned, synchronize in a rather sophisticated manner. The Hong Kong SAR government should learn from it about what works and evolve itself into an appropriate strategic position that will make the entire Hong Kong work.

From chaos to order, it’s now time to close the divide between the “two Hong Kongs.”

What the U.S. Can Learn From Foreign Multinationals in China

By Edward Tse

February 16, 2021

Originally published by Caixin Global on February 16, 2021.

Significant and fundamental changes are happening in the business sphere in China. Instead of leaving China as some asserted at the peak of the pandemic in China last year, multination corporations (MNCs) are doubling down in China. In fact, China’s foreign direct investment in 2020 rose by 4%, while in the U.S., it declined 49%, making 2020 the first year China has overtaken the U.S. as the top foreign investment destination.

Recent data from MNCs in China echoes similar sentiments. The American Chamber of Commerce in South China’s 2021 studies showed that over 70% of US companies surveyed have budgeted to reinvest and expand their businesses and market share in China this year. In the “Business Confidence Survey” released this month by the German Chamber of Commerce in China, 72% of respondents are also planning further investments in China.

Despite the pressure applied throughout the Trump era from the U.S. causing major antagonism towards China, China has continued on a path to reform and open up market access to foreign companies. For example, China has started to open up the previously rather restricted financial services sector.

BlackRock has approval to set up a wholly-owned asset management business in China and earlier this month, PayPal became the first third-party payment platform with 100% foreign ownership in China.

China has also abandoned the policy requiring foreign automakers to form 50-50 joint ventures with local companies. Tesla quickly took advantage of this change and built its state-of-the-art “gigafactory” in Shanghai, while Volkswagen raised its stake in its joint venture with local partner JAC Motors to 75%.

With China accelerating deregulation, the size of its market coupled with the government policies and the ingenuity of local enterprises are generating what’s possibly the world’s most competitive sectors at this moment. MNCs have largely awakened to the fact that China is innovative and for them to compete effectively, they will need to learn from China and create the best innovative approach for the China market.

For example, when the Chinese government push for new energy vehicles, Tesla is just one competitor, other Chinese players such as Nio, Xpeng, and BYD are also active in the same space.

Furthermore, connectivity and autonomous driving technologies are all being incorporated into vehicles, requiring automakers to consistently and continuously to innovate. In order to remain competitive, large incumbent foreign automakers are trying to innovate, but also adopt China-specific products and service models. Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen, recently said “China is a huge opportunity. China is also technologically advancing fast.”

In the consumer sector, local companies are also challenging the fast-moving consumer goods giants like Procter and Gamble, Unilever and L’Oreal with innovations in areas such as social commerce. The use of key opinion leaders (KOLs) has revolutionized the entire shopping experience by creating powerful social interactions with consumers through popular apps including Douyin (the Chinese version of TikTok), Billibilli and Kuaishou. Chinese beauty brand Perfect Diary has mastered the use of KOLs, activating the entire spectrum of KOLs (celebrity, top-tier, mid-tier, micro and key opinion consumers). From January 2019 to September 2020, Perfect Diary was the only color cosmetics brand on leading Chinese e-commerce platform Tmall, to achieve over 100 million yuan ($15.4 million) in monthly sales.

MNCs are increasingly finding that innovations developed in China have further potential in other parts of the world. When Panasonic developed a sterilization function for their washing machines specifically targeted for Chinese consumers, the same function was adapted to refrigerators for Japan’s consumers. Many Western retailers are now actively studying the omni-channel constructs and fulfillment models of local e-commerce pioneers like Taobao and JD.com.

The China head of a large U.S. industrial company once told me he thought he came to China to teach but after some time, he recognized he was in China to learn. Another large U.S. client told me their board of directors instructed the China team to seek how to leverage the China knowledge to help businesses in other parts of the world. BMW has taken its Munich-based Startup Garage program to China in order to gain exposure to new innovative technologies, such as electrification and automation, from a more advanced local ecosystem.

These latest views indicate a material change in the MNCs’ perspective on China. China isn’t just about a source of hard power (market size, profit and supply chain), it’s also becoming a source of soft power (innovation, knowledge and inspiration). This is due to China’s innate capabilities built by rigorous experimentations via the country’s governance approach — a combination of efficient top down planning by the central government alongside an incredibly dynamic entrepreneur class. Local governments help provide the glue between these two as they implement the central government’s policies while supporting businesses to grow.

MNCs and their lobbyists have long complained about problems with operating in China, e.g., intellectual property theft, lack of market access, unfair competition and lack of transparency. While perhaps some of these might indeed be — or have been — problems, in the larger scheme of things, they are no longer the defining factors.

MNCs are now coming to realize this fundamental shift, that China’s growth and resilience have been driven largely by an internally-driven momentum and governance approach, aided by its connectivity with the rest of the world through international trade. MNCs can benefit by being a part of the game and strengthening their own overall competitive advantages, or end up being marginalized if they choose not to participate.

So, what does this mean to the new U.S. administration team? By now, people should realize that some form of collaboration while competing with China would generate the best return. The big question is how.

I believe the key is to accept that China has gone through rounds of material changes over the last several decades. The new reality renders the assertions of the “coming collapse of China” and the “Thucydides Trap” not helpful as policy guidelines. The Joe Biden team should also get out of the aggressor mentality and the blame or mockery mindset that have plagued many U.S. policymakers and influencers over the past four years. Instead, a better approach would be to develop an objective view and a deeper understanding of why China works, or doesn’t, and learn from the Chinese experiences, not simply brush aside everything that China has done due to ideological differences.

The U.S. shouldn’t just follow the old game book. It needs to find a new game, but that new game should probably start from within.

SCMP | Land of Inspiration

By Edward Tse

Originally published on South China Morning Post with title “How China Became a Land of Inspiration and Innovation for Foreign Investors” on February 8, 2021. All rights reserved.

Last year marked the first year in which China took the position of top foreign investment destination from the United States. According to Unctad, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US fell to US$134 billion in 2020, a decline of 49 per cent. Meanwhile, FDI in China rose by 4 per cent to US$163 billion.

Some observers have said the drop of FDI in the US was because of Covid-19, implying it would rebound as soon as the pandemic stabilises. At the same time, the renewal of economic growth in China, aided by its quick recovery from the pandemic, has helped foreign investment soar. China was the only major economy that managed to grow in 2020, expanding by 2.3 per cent.

Under former US president Donald Trump, the US pressured China on multiple fronts: the trade war, the US-China technology divide, threats of economic decoupling, attempts to ban TikTok and WeChat, and more. However, these measures were not enough to deter the resilient Chinese economy.

This resilience is a result of China’s governance model, combining efficient top-down planning by the central government with a dynamic and innovative entrepreneur class. Local governments provide a glue between these two as they implement the central government’s policies.

The effectiveness of this approach is further buttressed by China’s dual-enterprise structure. State-owned enterprises bear much social responsibility, undertaking major initiatives such as key infrastructure projects which provide the foundation on which private enterprises can innovate and grow.

This development approach is experimental in nature as China continues to seek ways to reform and deregulate. Simultaneously, China continues to embrace multilateralism and globalisation, both of which underpin the positive development of the global economy and humanity. While the Trump administration embraced protectionism, China continues to deregulate and open up market access to foreign companies.

For example, the policy requiring foreign carmakers to form joint ventures with Chinese companies has been abolished, and they can now form wholly owned operations in China. Tesla took advantage of this change and built its state-of-the-art gigafactory in Shanghai.

In a similar vein, Volkswagen raised its stake in its joint venture with local partner JAC Motors to 75 per cent. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told China Daily, “For me, it is easier to invest in China than China is allowed to invest in Germany or some other places.”

Perhaps the largest impact has been in financial services. BlackRock has approval to set up a wholly owned asset management business in China, while Vanguard is planning to move its Asia headquarters to Shanghai. Earlier this month, PayPal became the first third-party payment platform with 100 per cent foreign ownership in China. Goldman Sachs has taken full ownership of its Chinese joint venture partner, and JPMorgan did the same last November.

For foreign investors, China has become a destination for inspiration and innovation. It is a key source of their competitive advantage globally, especially in terms of supply chains and business model extensions. China’s supply chain resilience is demonstrated by its impressive 3.6 per cent export growth in 2020, an improvement over 2019’s 0.5 per cent, according to Chinese customs data.

China’s digital innovations are also developing at unprecedented speed, enabled by disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing and big data analytics. They are affecting all walks of life. In China’s automotive sector, for example, new energy vehicles, connectivity and autonomous driving are all driving major changes in hardware as well as software and innovations in business models.

Behind this is the vast digital infrastructure the Chinese government is building, which is a key aspect that local and foreign players should be leveraging. For example, auto players can leverage the “vehicle to everything” capabilities that are built into the digital infrastructure in their design of connected, intelligent vehicles in China.

Similar innovations are emerging in service models, improving customer experience, increasing asset utilisation, generating more customer stickiness and driving transformational changes in value chains. In consumer-facing sectors, social commerce has manifested most prominently in China. Key opinion leaders build connectivity with followers through sharing their expertise in written posts or video formats, creating powerful social interactions with consumers.

The entire shopping experience is being revolutionised. Apps such as Douyin, Bilibili and Kuaishou are very popular in China. Foreign and local businesses are catching up on the innovations involved to generate more sales and build brand affinity.

Companies around the world are beginning to adapt their business models after the Chinese example. Examples include Konga.com, which has been called the “Alibaba of Nigeria”, and South Korea’s KakaoPay, a mobile payment service similar to Alipay.

Even Western companies are following suit. The global popularity of TikTok has led to Facebook trying to copy it more than once with the failed Lasso and the new Instagram Reels feature. In fact, it is the entire “super app” business model popularised in China that Facebook is attempting to mimic as it attempts to buy out new competitors and keep users in its ecosystem.

Foreign multinationals are coming to the realisation that China is not simply a market where profit can be made. It is increasingly a place where new knowledge and competitive advantage for companies can be obtained.

No matter what happens to FDI in the US, barring some unforeseen black swan events, FDI in China should continue to increase.

Perhaps the largest impact has been in financial services. BlackRock has approval to set up a wholly owned asset management business in China, while Vanguard is planning to move its Asia headquarters to Shanghai. Earlier this month, PayPal became the first third-party payment platform with 100 per cent foreign ownership in China. Goldman Sachs has taken full ownership of its Chinese joint venture partner, and JPMorgan did the same last November.

For foreign investors, China has become a destination for inspiration and innovation. It is a key source of their competitive advantage globally, especially in terms of supply chains and business model extensions. China’s supply chain resilience is demonstrated by its impressive 3.6 per cent export growth in 2020, an improvement over 2019’s 0.5 per cent, according to Chinese customs data.

China’s digital innovations are also developing at unprecedented speed, enabled by disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing and big data analytics. They are affecting all walks of life. In China’s automotive sector, for example, new energy vehicles, connectivity and autonomous driving are all driving major changes in hardware as well as software and innovations in business models.

Behind this is the vast digital infrastructure the Chinese government is building, which is a key aspect that local and foreign players should be leveraging. For example, auto players can leverage the “vehicle to everything” capabilities that are built into the digital infrastructure in their design of connected, intelligent vehicles in China.

Similar innovations are emerging in service models, improving customer experience, increasing asset utilisation, generating more customer stickiness and driving transformational changes in value chains. In consumer-facing sectors, social commerce has manifested most prominently in China. Key opinion leaders build connectivity with followers through sharing their expertise in written posts or video formats, creating powerful social interactions with consumers.

The entire shopping experience is being revolutionised. Apps such as Douyin, Bilibili and Kuaishou are very popular in China. Foreign and local businesses are catching up on the innovations involved to generate more sales and build brand affinity.

Companies around the world are beginning to adapt their business models after the Chinese example. Examples include Konga.com, which has been called the “Alibaba of Nigeria”, and South Korea’s KakaoPay, a mobile payment service similar to Alipay.

Even Western companies are following suit. The global popularity of TikTok has led to Facebook trying to copy it more than once with the failed Lasso and the new Instagram Reels feature. In fact, it is the entire “super app” business model popularised in China that Facebook is attempting to mimic as it attempts to buy out new competitors and keep users in its ecosystem.

Foreign multinationals are coming to the realisation that China is not simply a market where profit can be made. It is increasingly a place where new knowledge and competitive advantage for companies can be obtained.

No matter what happens to FDI in the US, barring some unforeseen black swan events, FDI in China should continue to increase.

 

SCMP | Hands Across Oceans

Originally published by South China Morning Post on June 11, 2020. All rights reserved.As political tensions rise amid the pandemic, relations between the United States and China have worsened at the federal level.Nevertheless, based on our interactions with our clients, we see many from both sides continuing to support collaboration at the local level – between cities, provinces or states. Despite the rhetoric at the federal level, a number of local American officials looking to rejuvenate the economy still welcome Chinese investment.

Texas may be a deep red state that voted for Donald Trump to be president, but it nevertheless advocates closer trade and investment ties with China, through sister cities.

Houston, the fourth-largest city in the US, has substantial engagement with two Chinese sister cities, Shenzhen and Shanghai. And China is the second-largest trading partner of Houston, Texas. Shanghai donated medical supplies to Houston in the fight against Covid-19, for example.

Last October, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met foreign business executives, including Evan Greenberg, chairman of the US-China Business Council, inviting them to seize opportunities in China.

This echoes US companies’ willingness to invest in China, as well as the recognition that foreign participation is key to establishing China’s technological leadership. Meanwhile, Beijing issued guidelines to cut red tape and protect trade secrets for US companies.

During his recent press conference at the end of the National People’s Congress, Li said that despite talk of a looming Cold War, there is room for bilateral economic cooperation. A decoupling of the two major economies would do no one any good, he added.

Local economic dialogue can enhance the understanding between ordinary Chinese and American citizens. In January, an article in Scientific Americanchallenged Washington’s “China threat” narrative, saying that far from “stealing” from the US, China has contributed intellectually and financially to US scientific production.

Seven of the 10 most frequently acknowledged funding agencies in US and China research publications were Chinese. If research ties with China are cut, the US scientific community has more to lose than gain in the long term.

However, in our conversations with a number of Chinese companies, they remain enthusiastic about investing in the US as long as federal regulators do not halt their projects over national security or other concerns.

The US remains a potentially profitable market for many. The Brunswick Group, however, also advises that Chinese businesses seeking to expand overseas must “bring more value to their employees, suppliers as well as local communities, and actively tell their own story”.

Chinese consumer electronics maker TCL Corp is expanding its supply chain in Asia, Africa and the Americas. Li Dongsheng, founder and chairman, believes that global markets will rebound in the second half of the year, and that expanding the supply chain in major economies is more critical than “simply selling products to them”.

Likewise, increasing Chinese investment in the heartland of America could help ease bilateral tensions.

Even as many Chinese fixate on the nation’s impressive economic progress, they could show more empathy with the US, especially Americans in the rust belt whose lives have been affected by the hollowing out of manufacturing. Chinese students in the US, for example, tend to keep to themselves, and are often unaware of the social realities in the US.

Fuyao, a Chinese automotive glass producer, operates a plant in Ohio that was the subject of the documentary American Factory. At the plant, it was initially difficult for Chinese and American workers to fully understand each other. Yet, the two sides tried to make things work, and were ultimately able to reach the same conclusion when it came to making a critical decision about the company.

Having been big-time buyers for US residential and commercial properties, Chinese could also invest in US-based public-private partnerships. “Chimerica” – a term coined by scholars Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick to describe the deep partnership between the two economies – remains a possibility at the local level, though probably not at the federal level, at least for the time being.Of course, not every cross-border investment will be easy and ultimately successful. Some investors will encounter challenges, while others will improvise and find solutions. Ultimately, people’s efforts, empathy and togetherness will go a long way.Given the riots and protests in the US, some people may be having doubts about whether this is a good time to invest in the country. Investors are naturally concerned about social stability and may prefer to take precautionary measures, such as joining hands with several Chinese companies to form a peer group, instead of proceeding alone.

Clearly, the current situation further complicates Chinese companies’ decision-making. However, the general American public, especially those in the US heartland, probably need more economic help than ever right now.

Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company. Thomas W. Pauken II is a commentator on Asia-Pacific affairs and geopolitical consultant based in Beijing, China. He is the author of the book, US vs China: From Trade War to Reciprocal Deal

 

SCMP | How Would Post-crisis China Look Like

Originally published on South China Morning Post with title “Post-crisis China will Focus on Public Health and Welfare. Business Should be Prepared for a Sea Change” on February 24, 2020. All rights reserved.

As the humanitarian cost of the coronavirus epidemic mounts, economic casualties are also surfacing throughout China. More than 48 cities have issued lockdown policies, and businesses have had to repeatedly postpone the return to work following the Lunar New Year holiday.

The economic impact is estimated to far surpass that of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, given China’s greater integration in the global value chain.

The outbreak is also revealing long-standing societal problems. Many crucial gaps that have been exposed need to be filled urgently. Governmental institutions will be focusing on improving China’s entire public agenda, and not only one or two areas.

The coronavirus crisis will reshape China in a few dimensions. First, its governance system is set to become more transparent and accountable. Over the past 40 years, China has unconsciously evolved into a three-layer development model to back continued economic success.

At the top, the central government sets the national agenda, providing clear directions for the rest of the country. At the grass-roots level, fast-growing and highly dynamic entrepreneurs drive China’s growth and innovation.

In the middle, local governments compete and cooperate with each other to form regional clusters, while serving as the “glue” between the central government and grass-roots businesses.

The coronavirus crisis suggests that the three-layer model needs to broaden its scope beyond the economy, to other aspects of society, in particular welfare. Only a few proactive cities have played their role effectively in the model; most others lack the aspirations and willingness to grow with businesses and promote innovation.

After the crisis, the central government is likely to call for all localities to increase their focus on public agendas, not only on economic concerns but also in public health, and not only for top-echelon cities but also the less-developed, inland ones.

The collaboration between both state-owned and private enterprises will increase with this expanded scope. As an example of what can be achieved, the two new hospitals built in Wuhan – one in 10 days and one in 14 – were the combined effort of state-owned and private enterprises. That was quite a feat.

Secondly, cities across China will become more intelligent and connected. As China’s socioeconomic patterns change, consumption is moving from offline to online and, with the epidemic, commercial applications of new technologies in 5G, artificial intelligence and the internet of things are being accelerated.

The trade war and epidemic are hitting the Chinese economy significantly. In the short term, the government will make major fixed-asset investments to boost the macroeconomy. But, in the long term, a post-crisis China will look different.

Importantly, China is making a nationwide coordinated move to create a reliable public-health apparatus. The central government recently announced legislative and institutional support to include biosafty in the national security system.

These public projects will generate a wide range of business opportunities, predominantly in the form of public-private partnerships, where private companies help governments to build smarter cities and infrastructure, particularly in monitoring and surveillance.

Future smart cities will be more intelligent in transport management, supply chain management, emergency and disaster forecasting and preparation, and information tracking.

For example, to substantively improve the health system, Chinese cities will not only need to track people’s movements but also identify potential infections (for instance, through monitoring body temperatures) and alert nearby hospitals.

Such complex tasks require the entire health care system to be tightly integrated through big data, as well as integrated efforts between local governments and state-owned and private enterprises.

New business models catering to the changing modes of interactions will also arise, particularly in sectors such as logistics, automation, distributed working, entertainment, retail and education.

In the logistics and robotics sectors, human-to-machine and machine-to-machine interactions will accelerate. For example, at the newly built Huoshenshan Hospital in Wuhan, robots deliver food and medication, sterilise the environment and perform basic diagnostics. Automation and robotics will become increasingly prevalent and take over much of the moving of both people and things.

Increasingly, traditionally offline businesses are moving online, including in health care, retail and education. In health care, the focus will shift towards prevention and early detection, in addition to more effective diagnostics, remedies and treatment.

Technologies will enable more health care services to be provided online. The merging of offline and online services as a business model will become increasingly prevalent, and distributed working is being accepted by more people. A huge portion of the Chinese population is working remotely for the first time. WeChat Work, DingTalk, and other remote working tools are proving to be more popular than ever.

Additionally, the role of social media in our society has changed. For a long time, it was a channel for customer-to-customer and business-to-customer communication. In this crisis, it has assumed a new role as a channel of communication between people and the government. Social media has proved to be an impactful way for the government to disseminate information and an unofficial feedback loop of accountability.

The coronavirus crisis has created challenges and opportunities. In the near term, businesses operating in and with China will face more uncertainty on the manufacturing, supply chain and consumer fronts. In the medium to longer term, China is poised to reinvent itself and prioritise social welfare in its national agenda.

Governments and companies – whether state-owned, private or foreign – will collaborate across sectors to foster synergies, especially in areas such as smart cities and infrastructure. New consumer patterns, technological progress and commercial innovations will come along, further transforming the business landscape.

About the Author

Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution of International Finance. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies – both headquartered in and outside of China – on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version «创业家精神»).

CNBC | Coronavirus Crisis is a ‘Big Wake up Call’

On March 3,  Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse was interviewed by CNBC on the implications of the coronavirus epidemic on China’s businesses and governance.

The COVID-19 outbreak will spur China’s central and local governments to improve information sharing going forward, says Edward Tse, CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company.

Please click 阅读原文 (Read More)  at the bottom to watch the show.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/03/coronavirus-crisis-is-a-big-wake-up-call-for-chinas-government-in-information-transparency-strategist.html

 

 

Caixin Global | Impact of the Coronavirus on Supply Chains

Originally published by Caixin Global with title, “Make Careful Supply Chain Decision for the Future, Not the Past” on March 5, 2020. All rights reserved.

The coronavirus outbreak has wreaked havoc on supply chains. Corporate operations around the world have been disrupted, with China at the epicenter of both the virus and global supply chains for many companies.

A recent report by The Economist says that most multinational firms have been caught off guard and suffered from temporary closures of their mainland-based suppliers. Big firms will try to ramp up production quickly, but it is unclear how soon factories can get back up and running at full capacity. Even though plants are restarting, logistics around and out of China will remain difficult.

According to the Wall Street Journal, tech giant Apple is expected to ship 5% to 10% fewer iPhones this quarter since its largest outsourcer, Foxconn, delayed resumption of work. Leading Korean auto manufacturer Hyundai had to shut down all its factories in South Korea due to lack of auto parts from China-based suppliers, and these factories have only partially re-opened, automobile industry news site Just-auto said. In Japan, several Nissan vehicle manufacturing factories in Kyushu were forced to close for the same reason.

A Shanghai American Chamber of Commerce survey of 127 foreign multinational corporations in China revealed broad concerns. The results show that only 13% of the respondents expected the coronavirus not to impact their revenue in 2020, and most respondents agreed supply chain adjustments would have to be taken into consideration. Some said the outbreak increased their determination to move business out of China, to places such as India.

However, supply chain shifts vary by business, sector and value chain segment. For companies in labor-intensive sectors, many had already been moving out of China to Southeast Asia or other lower-cost countries well before the outbreak due to increases in tariffs and other costs. For companies with large U.S. market exposure, some have moved their manufacturing operations closer to their U.S. customers by building plants in the U.S. Some are moving to other locations with lower U.S. tariffs than China.

For those companies for which China is an overwhelmingly important market, moving their entire supply chains out of China is difficult and doesn’t make strategic sense. This is especially true in industries with complicated supply chains linking myriad suppliers in geographically concentrated clusters and where “just-in-time” supplies are crucial to manufacturing operations. Consumer electronics, cars and advanced machinery all fall into this category.

Supply chain design and management are complicated and delicate issues. Over the last couple of decades, many companies have been deploying their supply chain globally to achieve an optimal combination of quality, cost and speed.

But consecutive external shocks from the U.S.-China trade war and Covid-19 have created a huge stress test. In the short term, supply chains have been severely affected. Many companies are now scrambling to roll out stopgap measures to minimize the impact.

Global CEOs must address the medium- and longer-term question of what to do. They will need to answer several fundamental questions:

1. How will global demand patterns for my products shift after the epidemic?

2. What will be my product-market strategy to address the changes?

3. What is my best guess of the key variables that could affect how I should think about my new supply chains, e.g., trade tariffs, non-economic trade issues such as “national security” concerns, my supplier base, costs, quality, agility and responsiveness? What scenarios are possible, and how can I respond to “black swan” events?

In order to help bring China’s economy back on track, Beijing is likely to make a major push on infrastructure development. It will also likely implement industry incentive schemes, further open market access for private and foreign companies, and provide fiscal stimulus. For example, on Feb. 24, Beijing issued a new policy paper on “the Strategies for Innovative Development of Smart Vehicles” supporting the development of the smart, connected automotive industry in China.

We expect a wholesale upgrade of smart cities across the country. These next-generation smart cities will not only address safety and security issues, but more importantly will also address broad public management agendas like public health. This will involve construction of much more connectivity infrastructure across China. As such, it will also enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of Chinese supply chains in the future.

More innovations will emerge as a result. Traditional offline-driven business models are increasingly moving online in areas such as remote working, education, entertainment, retail and health services.

The performance of online communications platforms such as Zoom and DingTalk exemplifies this trend. Compared to last year’s Lunar New Year break period, DingTalk acquired more than seven times as many newly registered users this year, while Zoom’s daily active users increased nearly five-fold. Automation and robotics will become much more prevalent, and human-to-machine and machine-to-machine interactions will exponentially increase. Smart manufacturing and robotic “last-mile” delivery powered by autonomous vehicle technology will grow more widespread soon.

Deciding on shifting a company’s supply chain is not trivial. It could have major impacts on the effectiveness of the company’s strategy, competitiveness and economic performance. While short-term disruptions in China due to the coronavirus epidemic are painful, thinking through longer-term strategy requires careful deliberation. This will require a deep understanding of China and the dynamics of the world. Linear extrapolation from the past is not sufficient: the right answers will need to come from a perceptive view of the future.

About the Author

Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company, a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institute for International Finance and Adjunct Professor, School of Business Administration, Chinese University of Hong Kong. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies – both headquartered in and outside of China – on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version «创业家精神»).

SCMP | Staying for the Duration

Originally published by South China Morning Post on April 29, 2020. All rights reserved.
The Covid-19 outbreak has many speculating whether there will be a mass exit by foreign companies from China after the pandemic. Indeed, the crisis has delivered massive blows to many companies’ supply chains.A March survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in South China indicates that all 237 respondents have seen their supply chains affected, and 15 percent of respondents were already out of some supplies.Some governments have echoed these concerns. On April 7, Japan unveiled a relief package of almost US$1 trillion, of which around US$2 billion was earmarked to help manufacturers diversify supply chains away from geographical clusters – primarily China – to other nations.Soon after, US National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow suggested that the White House should “pay the moving cost” of American companies wanting to get out of China.

On April 14, French carmaker Renault put the brakes on its loss-making venture with Dongfeng Motor Corporation in Wuhan, transferring full ownership of its Wuhan plant to Dongfeng. Unsurprisingly, this triggered worries that foreign companies are starting to leave China because of the pandemic.

Such anxiety is not new. Ever since the virus outbreak, some pundits have predicted China’s relative decline in a post-pandemic “new world order”. Among them was US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, who said on January 31 that the virus would “help accelerate” the return of jobs to North America.

In early April, US journalist Daniel Greenfield wrote in an article, titled “Pandemic hardening can make America great”, that Covid-19 would lead to a “re-ruralisation” of the US. Instead of massive malls selling a plethora of “Made in China” goods, smaller businesses would sell products made locally for “a more decentralised shopping experience”.

People sit inside Renault’s EZ-GO at the Auto China 2018 motor show in Beijing on April 25, 2018. Renault transferred full ownership of its Wuhan plant to Donfeng Motor Corp this month. Photo: ReutersThere are three main types of supply chains in China. First, labour-intensive ones, such as those in toys, shoes and apparel. For more than a decade, these businesses have been moving from China to lower-cost countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Cambodia. They will continue to do so.The second type includes companies relying predominantly on the US market as their export destination. As a result of elevated US tariffs due to the trade war, they have been transferring at least part of their supply chains to other areas with lower tariffs. For them, unless the US reduces the tariffs, there is little reason to shift back to China.The third type involves a myriad of suppliers, often located in clusters, to support a main manufacturer, which needs to optimise cost-effectiveness, quality, timeliness and responsiveness. Achieving optimum performance requires an agile combination of scale, operational efficiency and technological sophistication in development, design, testing and prototyping.

This applies to sectors like smartphones, consumer electronics and those involving the internet of things and artificial intelligence. While certain forces will indeed pull some of these supply chains away from China after the pandemic, China also enjoys unequalled advantages.

Designing and maintaining this sort of sophisticated supply chain is not a trivial matter. Manufacturers in China, including their supplier clusters, often with local governmental support, have built this system up over several decades.

In our conversations with clients, we found that senior executives of many global multinationals are now focused on ensuring their companies’ operational stability and cash flow sustainability. They have no immediate plans to leave China.

Employees maintain social distancing guidelines while eating lunch at a Dongfeng Honda auto plant in Wuhan, China, on March 23. After a two-month lockdown, people were allowed to go back to work in the city that was the centre of China’s Covid-19 epidemic. Photo: AFPThese perspectives echo a March survey by the American chambers of commerce in Beijing and Shanghai and consultancy PwC, which found that most US firms in China have no plans to relocate production elsewhere. Likewise, according to Jörg Wuttke, head of the European Union Chamber of Commerce, European manufacturers are also “not eager to exit China”.Multinationals take their China strategy very seriously and won’t rush into a decision without evaluating several factors, including the post-pandemic global order and the changing nature of globalisation. Of course, for many global executives, the political overhang on top of the pandemic-derived arguments triggers emotional responses and sometimes bewilderment.Some predict a wave of “deglobalisation” and “deChina-isation”. Conceivably, parts of supply chains will become regionalised or localised in some countries. This could well be the case for those products that require less mass production and whose pricing provides sufficient room for manoeuvring of supply chain economics.

With the emergence of cloud technologies, industrial internet and automation, the future of manufacturing will become more intelligent and distributed, potentially resetting how companies optimise their global manufacturing footprint.

China is likely to remain the core manufacturing hub, or one of the core hubs, for multinationals with the third type of supply chain.

The pandemic has brought numerous challenges for China: a protracted slowdown in the global economy, prevailing anti-China sentiment in the West and the mixing of politics and business. “National security” is now often misused to block Chinese companies from markets and technologies.

China’s manufacturing industry is suffering from core technology bottlenecks, such as in semiconductor chips. The country is currently a key purchaser from US chip makers such as Nvidia, Intel and Qualcomm, contributing a large portion of their total revenues. Nonetheless, China is expected to up the ante in the future to address these bottlenecks.

Despite these challenges, China is heading towards economic recovery, through innovation, investment and consumption. During the pandemic, multinationals’ executives have witnessed China’s governance and crisis management capabilities.

Looking ahead, we will see a surge in demand for digital infrastructure, built using technologies such as cloud services, the internet of things, artificial intelligence, 5G and blockchain technology, as the backbone of China’s next-generation smart cities.

We are unlikely to see a mass exodus of foreign companies from China. Most will carefully evaluate their strategy, both globally and with China at its core. In a new world order, which will combine globalisation with some degree of regionalisation and localisation, as well as some “reshoring”, companies need to adapt strategies and recalibrate global supply chains.

The post-pandemic “new normal” in China will continue to offer multinationals new opportunities in innovation, investment and fresh demand patterns.

 

About the Author
Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company, a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution of International Finance and Adjunct Professor, School of Business Administration, Chinese University of Hong Kong. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms (BCG and Booz) for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies – both headquartered in and outside of China – on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version «创业家精神»).

 

HSM | Why Chinese are Workaholic?

By Edward Tse
January 2020

Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse’s article was published in his regular column on Brazil’s HSM Management Magazine in January 2020 issue. In this article, Dr. Tse discusses the “working hard” culture of the Chinese businesses.

English Version

After decades of tremendous growth, China is now an upper-middle-income nation, according to the World Bank. Its reputation as an innovative economy is increasing. Along with its economic growth, China’s productivity too has been growing well.

The growth of China’s productivity during the last few decades is mainly due to the opening-up and reform policy implemented from 1978 onwards, its labor intensive exports driven manufacturing and investment-led growth model underpinned this extraordinary progress. Yet some strains associated with that approach have become evident in the last one decade or so as these economic drivers seem to be running out of steam.

China stepped into the innovation wave after the wireless internet (together with smart phones) became prevalent. Chinese entrepreneurs have leveraged this technology to create a range of new business models and products that cater to the evolving consumer and business needs. In the race against time and in the midst of hyper-intensive competition, Chinese entrepreneurs have to be fast, agile and adaptive in order to remain ahead of others. They often don’t mind using the market as a test bed for experimentation as they fine-tune their business models along the way. Quick experimentation often becomes the core part of the very culture of Chinese companies. Speed, rhythm, intensity and multi-tasking have become parts of the DNA of many Chinese companies. On top of this, evolving government policies and regulations are often a source of uncertainty and they keep Chinese entrepreneurs persistently and highly alert and vigilant.

As a result, many Chinese businesses have formed a culture of “working hard.” This is the now widely known as “996” schedule – which means working from 9am to 9pm, six days a week. This has become common place among Chinese entrepreneurs, particularly among large internet-based businesses. The 996 schedule was initially applied in order to improve overall productivity of companies by increasing working hours.

Source: Baidu

However, the notion of “996” has become somewhat controversial. Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma is a vocal supporter of the gruelling working hours commonplace in China’s tech and internet industry. He once said at an internal meeting that this is, “a huge blessing that many companies and employees do not have the opportunity to have,” according to a transcript published on Alibaba’s official WeChat account. Richard Liu, CEO of JD.com, a leading e-commerce company, responded to the recent layoffs saying that JD.com would never force employees to work in a 995 or 996 schedule, but every staff of JD.com must “have a competitive spirit!”

Besides the 996 schedule, many Chinese companies, including both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs), are actively seeking multiple ways of improving productivity. More and more companies, especially SOEs and some internet companies, are beginning to provide free meals to their employees in order to reduce the amount of time spent on purchasing and eating meals. Moreover, employees’ dormitories and free buses are also being offered as perks to simplify the lives of employees and make sure they can get to work on time. In some companies, a military-style management has also been deployed to improve the efficiency and productivity of their staff’s work.

The “working hard” culture of the Chinese businesses probably won’t go away any time soon.

How Would China’s Businesses be Affected by the Coronavirus?

Source: Baidu

These days, the news is dominated by the impact of the Coronavirus and how China is coping with this latest shock. Consumer demand for goods and services is declining in China; sectors such as retail, travel and leisure are the most directly impacted as businesses have closed or are semi-closed throughout the country. The Coronavirus has challenged China, exposing some crucial gaps, but it will also potentially create new opportunities. Attention will be focused on improving China’s entire public agenda, not only one or two vertical areas.

In the aftermath of the crisis, one would expect China’s governance system to become more transparent and there will be more accountability. In order to ensure its public agenda is advanced properly, a lot more effort and resources will need to be put in by the central government as well as local governments at the provincial, city and township levels. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises, including both Chinese privately-owned enterprises (POEs) and foreign companies, will be able to better leverage their respective strengths and capabilities. As a case in point, two new specialized hospitals were built in Wuhan – one in 10 days and one in 14 – through the combined efforts of SOEs, POEs and foreign companies. That was quite a feat.

Comprehensive data has always been collected throughout China and surveillance too, was prevalent, and yet China wasn’t able to fully track those who might have contracted the virus. In the aftermath, surveillance and monitoring will become even more important for ensuring their utility for the people.

China’s socioeconomic pattern is also changing as consumer behavior shifts and technology continues to develop. Consumption is shifting increasingly from offline to online. New commercial applications of technologies such as 5G, AI and IoT are also developing faster because of the epidemic. We will see innovative business models and changes in the ways that humans interact with each other and with machines in the future.

Source: Baidu

What trends could possibly drive future business opportunities in the aftermath of the Coronavirus?

1. A major nationwide effort would be made towards creation of a safer and more health-conscious living environment.

2. For public health: early detection, prevention, advanced treatment, and diagnostics would receive much more attention and a more comprehensive public health management system would evolve.

3. There would be more Public Private Partnerships (PPP). Collaboration between private and public sectors to create solutions addressing public agenda issues going forward.

4. The development of a more ubiquitous, connected and intelligent society will accelerate, leveraging new disruptive technologies such as IoT, AI, 5G and blockchain.

5. Big data will become even more prevalent with more data sharing across the board for more effective public agenda management.

6. A rise of new modes of interactions will be imminent. Although human-to-human touchpoints will still remain, other forms of interactions, such as human-to-machine and machine-to-machine will grow exponentially.

7. While entrepreneurship and innovation have already been rising in China over the last several decades, they would further accelerate going forward for addressing the pain points that were exposed during the Coronavirus crisis.

The virus has exposed China’s many problems and created challenges. In the short run, it has added more uncertainty to businesses operating in and with China from manufacturing, supply chain and consumer demand perspectives. In the medium to longer-run, we can expect a huge potential shift as China re-invents itself, making the improvement of its public agenda management a top priority. Collaborations across governments, SOEs, POEs and foreign companies to foster synergies, while at the same time, new consumer patterns and innovative use of technology and business models will come along.

Edward Tse: China’s Shift into Industrial Automation

Another new article authored by Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse was published, where he discussed china’s shift into industrial automation. Dr. Tse said robots will become a strategically important constituent in China’s labor force going forward.

China’s labor market is evolving from a mass of unskilled labor into one featuring an increasingly sophisticated labor force. Now, it is transforming as automation and the use of robotics in manufacturing or logistics sectors are rising fast.

Cheap labor has long been considered as one of the main factors propelling the country to the status of the word’s factory, which shifts global supply chains and attracts thousands of companies in other countries moving their plants to China. However, economic growth during the past 20 years has led to a rapid increase in wages. China’s average wage increased by 8.2 percent annually in the decade, much higher than the global growth rate, according to the International Labor Organization report. In the report, it also mentioned the average real wages of China has almost doubled between 2008 and 2017. That’s the result of an economy that’s been growing by high single digits to double digits annually for two decades.

In 2008, Beijing updated its Labor Contract Law to improve the labor contract system by defining labor right, reducing working hours and improving the welfare benefits and working environment. Labor conditions have largely been improved since that time. At the same time, there are an oversupply of educated workers and a shrinking low-cost labor force as more high school graduates go on to obtain university degrees. With increased labor union activities, better wages and higher levels of education improving the plight of workers, manufacturing becomes less profitable before the country can shift to less labor-intensive and more value-added industries.

“Made in China 2025”, a strategic plan of the People’s Republic of China issued by Premier Li Keqiang and his cabinet in May 2015, aims at rapidly moving from being a low-end manufacturer to becoming a high-end and high-tech producer of goods. Under the plan, the number of industrial robotics operating in China is targeted to expand tenfold to 1.8 million units by 2025. As part of its effort to upgrade its manufacturing sector, the Chinese government started a campaign in 2014 with the overall aim to gradually replace manual labor with robots, with the heavily industrialized provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong among those introducing the new technology on a massive scale.

According to the World Robotics 2019 report released by International Federation of Robotics (IFR), China has been the world’s largest industrial robot market since 2013. The city government of Dongguan, in the heart of the Guangdong province that is known as China’s industrial and export hub, has allocated 385 million yuan (US$56.8 million) to boost automation in factories last year alone. Foxconn, the Taiwanese electronics giant which makes half of the world’s iPhones, plans to fully automate 30 per cent of its production by 2020. In the logistics sector, robotics is also changing the whole industry. Cainiao, one of China’s leading logistics players (~63% owned by Alibaba), has opened China’s largest and most efficient robot-operated warehouse in 2018, with the application of nearly 700 robots, including robotic arms and unmanned drones.

China began its economic ascent as the “world’s factory” over the past several decades by taking advantage of cheap labor. Now, a robot revolution is under way and robots will become a strategically important constituent in China’s labor force going forward.

 

Edward Tse: Are Chinese Workaholic?

y

This is a new article authored by Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse, in which he discusses the culture of “working hard” —”996″ schedule of the Chinese businesses.

After decades of tremendous growth, China is now an upper-middle-income nation, according to the World Bank. Its reputation as an innovative economy is increasing. Along with its economic growth, China’s productivity too has been growing well.

The growth of China’s productivity during the last few decades is mainly due to the opening-up and reform policy implemented from 1978 onwards, its labor intensive exports driven manufacturing and investment-led growth model underpinned this extraordinary progress. Yet some strains associated with that approach have become evident in the last one decade or so as these economic drivers seem to be running out of steam.

China stepped into the innovation wave after the wireless internet (together with smart phones) became prevalent. Chinese entrepreneurs have leveraged this technology to create a range of new business models and products that cater to the evolving consumer and business needs. In the race against time and in the midst of hyper-intensive competition, Chinese entrepreneurs have to be fast, agile and adaptive in order to remain ahead of others. They often don’t mind using the market as a test bed for experimentation as they fine-tune their business models along the way. Quick experimentation often becomes the core part of the very culture of Chinese companies. Speed, rhythm, intensity and multi-tasking have become parts of the DNA of many Chinese companies. On top of this, evolving government policies and regulations are often a source of uncertainty and they keep Chinese entrepreneurs persistently and highly alert and vigilant.

As a result, many Chinese businesses have formed a culture of “working hard.” This is the now widely known as “996” schedule – which means working from 9am to 9pm, six days a week. This has become common place among Chinese entrepreneurs, particularly among large internet-based businesses. The 996 schedule was initially applied in order to improve overall productivity of companies by increasing working hours.

Source: Baidu

However, the notion of “996” has become somewhat controversial. Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma is a vocal supporter of the gruelling working hours commonplace in China’s tech and internet industry. He once said at an internal meeting that this is, “a huge blessing that many companies and employees do not have the opportunity to have,” according to a transcript published on Alibaba’s official WeChat account. Richard Liu, CEO of JD.com, a leading e-commerce company, responded to the recent layoffs saying that JD.com would never force employees to work in a 995 or 996 schedule, but every staff of JD.com must “have a competitive spirit!”

Besides the 996 schedule, many Chinese companies, including both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs), are actively seeking multiple ways of improving productivity. More and more companies, especially SOEs and some internet companies, are beginning to provide free meals to their employees in order to reduce the amount of time spent on purchasing and eating meals. Moreover, employees’ dormitories and free buses are also being offered as perks to simplify the lives of employees and make sure they can get to work on time. In some companies, a military-style management has also been deployed to improve the efficiency and productivity of their staff’s work.

The “working hard” culture of the Chinese businesses probably won’t go away any time soon.

 

【今日语录】12月10日

在高端咨询工作中,最过瘾的阶段是 problem definition。越复杂越不确定越好玩。因这个过程是要考功夫的,需要在貌似浑沌、无棱两可中找出套路来。咨询顾问开始时可能会不知所措、有所恐惧。但只要坚定的抓住重点,回归第一原则,有效利用适当分析框架来分析问题,仔细聆听客户和其他信息来源的输入,团队集体合作,众志成城,你会发觉在某一天某一时刻,你会茅塞顿开。你的 Eureka moment 便已到达!

SCMP | China and the US on Technology: Racing or Dancing?

Originally published in South China Morning Post with title, “Why the US Should Not Try to Thwart China’s Blockchain and Digital Currency Ambitions.” All rights reserved.

In the October 23 Congress hearing on Facebook’s digital currency Libra, Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of the social media giant, warned Washington that blocking Libra would give way to China’s growing technological supremacy, which would eventually jeopardise America’s democratic values.

Zuckerberg’s remarks, though somewhat apocalyptic, fit into the rhetorical framework of the battle for technological leadership between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China. Identified by the Trump administration as a revisionist power and strategic threat, China has been at the forefront of tech-enabled innovations, such as digital currency, since 2014.

During a meeting last month, President Xi Jinping endorsed blockchain as the nation’s core technology. China’s plan to launch a sovereign digital currency is also triggering new appetites for start-ups, traders, investors and researchers.

As the underlying technology of digital currencies such as bitcoin and Libra, blockchain is a distributed, decentralised and public digital ledger system which allows information and data to be immutably stored and transparent to all. The technology promises unparalleled efficiency, security and transparency and carries profound implications in a variety of scenarios from finance to manufacturing and energy.

In the finance sector, for example, blockchain can help traditional banks reduce operation costs, allowing individuals to perform transactions in a secure environment. The technology is also set to be involved in the development of smart, digitally connected cities. Blockchain-enabled parking platforms, for instance, would provide real-time information on parking spaces for drivers to reserve spaces, thus reducing congestion and on-street parking.

Source: SCMP

In the private sectors, demand for blockchain solutions for supply chain and logistics is quickly expanding. In a traditional supply chain, payments can take up to days, and contractual agreements involve different layers of third-party costs; the increasing globalisation and complexity of trade makes it almost impossible to trace products back to the source, compromising supply-chain integrity.

According to PwC, 40 per cent of food companies find food fraud difficult to detect with current methods, and 39 per cent believe their products are easy to counterfeit. Blockchain could be the answer to such supply-chain frictions.

China’s three-layered development model has lent resilience to its development. The central government sets the overarching strategy of developing a technologically advanced, innovative society while thriving entrepreneurial, private-sector companies drive business innovations, with local governments in the middle as liaisons. Guangzhou’s Huangpu Development district authorities, for instance, recently published regulations on blockchain use to cater for a major increase in applications, while a blockchain platform was launched last year in Shenzhen to serve the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area.

Source: SCMP

The US, meanwhile, is unsettled by China’s rapid expansion into the frontier technologies. President Donald Trump is set to help the US solidify, or regain, its position as a global innovation hub, despite his complicated love-hate relationship with the tech industry. In February, Trump signed an executive order to maintain America’s leadership in artificial intelligence. Last month, the White House revived the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, a group of experts who work to inform public policy on science, technology, education and homeland security.

The private sector is an important source of innovation in the US, as epitomised by Google’s milestone achievement in quantum computing – a technology that will produce a strong symbiosis with artificial intelligence and cryptography.

The de facto punchline of Trump’s tech move, though, was to cut Chinese companies off America’s technology value chain, especially the core scientific know-how. Over the course of the year, Washington repeatedly put pressure on Chinese telecom equipment and smartphone maker Huawei and blacklisted it, citing the company’s alleged coziness with the Chinese government, while reining back China’s dominance in 5G technology. Another 28 Chinese companies were later added to the blacklist, including the supercomputer maker Sugon along with three of its microchip subsidiaries.

Given the intensity and speed at which the rivalry is escalating, Zuckerberg’s warning is not totally unjustified. If China’s digital currency is adopted in more countries, America’s oversight and regulation of the global financial system will become challenging. This gap will only increase as the two countries diverge further into separate trajectories of the technology.

Hostile competition is likely to result in a zero-sum game. Continued blacklisting will do more harm than good, wreaking havoc on jobs and disrupting the global technology supply chain. As China develops applications of blockchain system, it should adopt best practices and international benchmarks, and establish a clearer, full-bodied legislative framework.

Source: SCMP

Though differences exist, and will continue to exist, the world will benefit if the two leading economic powers can seek commonalities, rebuild trust, cooperate on technological initiatives, and establish global governance and a code of conduct on blockchain technology as well as its applications. After all, increasingly, the issues facing humanity transcend national borders and require big powers to work together.

On the business level, such collaborations are already happening. For instance, IBM, Walmart, Chinese retailer JD.com and Tsinghua University launched a project in December 2017 to develop food safety solutions using IBM’s blockchain platform. The project also involved major food suppliers such as Dole and Kroger, benefiting offline and online consumers across the globe.

On a global level, blockchain’s potential trade-related applications could transform various aspects of international trade, including finance, customs and certification processes, logistics, and intellectual property. But for the technology to empower global growth, countries would have to cooperate with one another.

SCMP | Foreign Businesses Need to Better Understand China

The NBA and Apple Cases Show Foreign Businesses Need to Better Understand China, and Its Boundaries

By Edward Tse
October 21, 2019

Original published by South China Morning Post titled The NBA and Apple Cases Show Foreign Businesses Need to Better Understand China, and Its Boundaries on October 21, 2019. All rights reserved.

Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse’s latest op-ed was published on SCMP. In this article, Dr. Tse pointed out all countries have their own “boundary of sensitivities”, and foreign companies doing business should be mindful of the host country’s boundary. This applies to the recent cases of the NBA and Apple in China and will also apply to Chinese companies as they expand overseas.

The months-long protests in Hong Kong have not only attracted international attention, but have also begun to involve major foreign powerhouses like the NBA and Apple. The fallout caused by Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey’s tweet led Tencent and China’s predominant broadcaster CCTV to suspend the airing of NBA games, and Chinese companies such as Ctrip.com (China’s major travel booking platform) to terminate NBA sponsorship.

Meanwhile, Apple’s approval of an app which allows users to track protest activities received an immense backlash from the Chinese government and consumers. Apple has since removed it and released a statement that the app “violate[d] our guidelines and local laws”.

Some critics were quick to jump to the conclusion that China is victimising foreign companies and preventing freedom of expression. However, as in every country, China has certain boundaries of sensitivity.

Issues such as racial discrimination are highly sensitive in the US. In 2014, Donald Sterling (the former LA Clippers owner) was fined US$2.5 million and banned from the NBA for life because of his racist remarks. The NBA reacted to the unacceptability of these comments in US society, even with freedom of expression considered.

It is common sense that companies doing business in a foreign country need to observe and understand the host country’s boundaries of sensitivity and understand what is, and is not, acceptable. Not doing so is generally the result of ignorance, incompetence, arrogance or a combination of these things.

In 2012, many pundits were quick to say that Japanese companies had no chance of succeeding in China during a period of anti-Japanese sentiment (regarding a territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands). During this time, some Toyota and Honda dealerships in China were burnt down and their sales in China plunged.

Today, Japanese carmakers are actually doing well. Japanese brands’ market share in China has steadily increased, and today is the second-largest in terms of foreign passenger car brands (measured by country where the companies’ headquarters are based).

I agree with the assertion in The Economist’s June 28, 2018 Schumpeter column that “[t]he sense of victimhood is over the top; American firms have done reasonably well in China”. The NBA has been very popular and was on the rise in China for over a decade before Morey’s tweet.

Were the Chinese people’s reactions appropriate? It depends on your point of view, of course. The negative impact for the NBA in China is likely to be temporary. After all, a company’s success is a function of its competitive advantages, especially its products and brand, so the NBA can recover.

Despite the recent controversy, passionate Chinese fans turned out for a preseason NBA basketball game between the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers at the Mercedes Benz Arena in Shanghai on October 10. Photo: AP

There are already signs of this, as Tencent lifted its temporary ban on live-streamed NBA games, and recently streamed two NBA games in China. Of course, the NBA and its stakeholders should continue to work on damage control.

Apple remains a strong brand in China, even while facing competition from local players like Huawei and others. The uproar regarding the Hong Kong app was simply China’s view on how a sensitive boundary had been crossed (by design or not, the app helped Hong Kong protesters organise around the city).

Apple’s response was swift and, from the Chinese perspective, appropriate. On its own, this episode will have a limited impact on Apple’s position in China.

These two episodes do not represent the institutional barriers causing difficulties for foreign companies in China. Beijing continues to open up its market, sector by sector, for foreign companies, especially since the US-China trade war started.

However, foreign companies’ success in China increasingly requires a recognition that the world is diverging into “two systems” – one led by the US; another by China. Multinationals are finding that they need to develop different strategies for each system. Striking a balance will be critical for global operations and success.

In the auto industry, for instance, global companies such as Toyota and BMW need to create strategies to meet the dynamics of these very different markets. Toyota has developed completely different and separate ecosystems, recognising the need to meet China’s unique communications, IT and software requirements.

This includes building different “mobility as a service”, technological (such as autonomous vehicle technology) and business model solutions. For example, Toyota partners with Monet (a mobility-as-a-service joint venture between Japanese carmakers and the tech investment firm Softbank) and Uber in Western markets, and with Guangzhou Automobile Group and Didi Chuxing in China.

Foreign companies in China need to step up their game if they want to capture the full potential it offers. Increasingly it’s not just about the China market but also the nation’s impact on the rest of the world, especially developing markets, which are increasingly evolving in a fashion similar to China.

They need to understand China much better. While this may sound like a broken record, significant gaps remain, partly due to the context of China, which continues to evolve and is in many aspects proceeding into unknown territory.

Foreign companies need to adjust their products, services and business models to the Chinese context. To this end, they should seek to better appreciate and incorporate China’s quickly developing innovations, and integrate them into the core of what they do in China.

At the same time, they need to be extremely perceptive of where China’s boundaries lie and respect them, while deploying measures to anticipate and manage risks.

About the author
Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution for International Finance. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies, investors, start-ups, and public-sector organizations (both headquartered in and outside of China) on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version of 《创业家精神》).You may visit Dr. Tse’s blog to explore more of his intellectual capital: www.edwardtseblog.com

SCMP | Under ‘One World, Two Systems’, Companies Must Evolve

Under ‘One World, Two Systems’, US Companies that Stay in China Must Evolve

By Edward Tse and Bill Russo
27 Sep, 2019

Original published by South China Morning Post titled Under ‘One World, Two Systems’, US Companies that Stay in China Must Evolve on September 27, 2019. All rights reserved.

More US companies are staying in China than are deciding to leave, despite Donald Trump’s trade war rhetoric. But there is an increasing need to devise different strategies, as China’s market conditions become more sophisticated and unique

In a recent business report by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, 77 per cent of the surveyed companies reported that their China operations are profitable. Around 60 per cent are optimistic about the five-year business outlook and nearly half are increasing investment in 2019.

The findings were consistent with those of another report, by the US-China Business Council in August, suggesting that 87 per cent of the US companies operating in China do not want to leave.

Both are slaps in the face for US President Donald Trump, who earlier called for American companies to leave China and to return to the US. Very few, if any, have followed.

In July, 100 academics and policy advisers around the US wrote an open letter to Trump, advising that Beijing is neither an economic nor national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere.

US animosity towards China will eventually damage its own reputation, as well as the economic interests of all nations. There can be no winner in a zero-sum game.

The above-mentioned survey results and reactions are consistent with our first-hand experience of consulting for the senior management of many US companies in China.

As Trump’s trade war drags on, while some foreign companies have chosen to leave China – usually those in labour- or cost-intensive sectors such as shoe and apparel manufacturing – most have chosen to stay, simply because of the size of the China market or the high degree of integration of their supply chain with Chinese suppliers and manufacturers, or both. Paradoxically, after Trump’s plea, US retailer Costco opened its first store in Shanghai.

Also, electric vehicle maker Tesla is set to start production by the end of this year in its wholly owned manufacturing plant in Shanghai.

Among those that have chosen to stay, there is an increasing need to devise different strategies for China and the US. As China’s operating environment evolves, its market conditions are becoming more sophisticated and unique. For example, in the tech sector, some aspects of the two countries are diverging and companies will need to consciously adapt.

Terry Gou, founder of Apple supplier Foxconn, expects a divide in 5G technology between China and the US, because of underlying differences in strategic positioning, development and market needs. As fifth-generation cellular networks and their commercial applications evolve, the divergence will only increase.

On a broader scale but in the same vein, the G2 – the US and China – will replace the G20 in a new leadership framework: “one world, two systems”.

China’s three-layered development model is the key to the country’s resilience. At the top, the central government sets the overarching strategy for developing a technologically advanced, innovative society. At the bottom, the thriving entrepreneurial, private-sector companies are driving China’s business innovations.

In the middle, local governments connect the central government and businesses by building infrastructure (not only the physical kind but also, increasingly, smart infrastructure) and by being a funding source and incubator for start-ups. The smart infrastructure, for instance, is empowering the automotive industry as vehicles become more intelligent, connected and ultimately autonomous.

An integrated smart city allows real-time governance of a city’s major functions. Local governments are raising the stakes: for example, Hangzhou is managing traffic congestion with the City Brain and Wuxi is establishing a pilot zone for autonomous driving.

Some companies are already aware of the importance of a strategy of “one world, two systems”. For example, Toyota has realised that striking a fine balance between China and the US will be critical for its global operations. Meanwhile, it faces the delicate task of creating a strategy for meeting the industry and technological specifications unique to China.

This trend began to emerge even before the trade war began. China is evolving into a leader of innovation with new disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, the internet of things and blockchain, and is moving ahead of the US to build the world’s biggest 5G networks.

Businesses – in particular, the entrepreneurs working in concert with governments, both local and central – will take China through new paths onto new platforms.

As a result, the industry structure, competitive conduct and financial performance for all sectors in China will evolve in their own ways. Companies, no matter whether headquartered inside or outside China, should adjust their strategies going forward.

US companies that choose to stay in China need to be much more sophisticated. Copying and pasting business models from the US to China won’t necessarily work any more. Local innovation will be critical and, in many cases, US companies will need to join with local companies and governments.

While differences exist, the world will benefit from cooperation between the world’s two largest economies. Both Andrew Ng, the former leader of the AI teams at Baidu and Google Brain, and Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, have suggested there is plenty of room for technology partnerships between China and the US.

Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei has said the company is open to selling 5G technology to US companies to create competition and a more unified global technological environment. Companies so far only focus on beating their competition, and the idea of creating competition and sharing advantages would be a breakthrough, if implemented.

There is more room for the US and China to collaborate than fight in the face of global challenges, many of which will transcend national borders.

About the authors

Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution for International Finance. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies, investors, start-ups, and public-sector organizations (both headquartered in and outside of China) on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version of 《创业家精神》).

Bill Russo is Managing Director of Gao Feng Advisory Company, he is also Founder and CEO of Automobility Ltd.

【Quote of Today】September 26th

,

 

From fringe to core and from core to fringe. A simple but powerful concept that was built on the Multiple Jumping strategy framework. We introduced this concept in 2014. New innovative ideas often begin at the fringe of a company’s business. When it grows, it often would move into the core of the company and become the mainstream. In some cases, companies would reinvent its original core business to make it great again. At some other times, however, the importance of the original core will diminish and eventually become a fringe business. This can be an ongoing cycle that goes back and forth for many times. And therefore at heart it’s dynamic strategy with duality as its nature.

Nikkei Asian Review | Debunking Myths on Chinese SOEs

Edward Tse

Debunking Myths on Chinese SOEs

Original published by Nikkei Asian Review titled “Chinese SOEs are Focused on Business, Not Politics” on September 13, 2019. All rights reserved.

In the eyes of some politicians and media in the West, Chinese state-owned enterprises are little more than corporate vehicles for carrying out Beijing’s policy agenda. This perspective has led to calls to restrict SOEs’ investments and acquisition of other companies and technologies.

This is a shortsighted view. Although I am from Hong Kong, not mainland China, and am not a member of the Communist Party, I have served at different times as an independent board director at four Chinese SOEs since 2006: Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), the holding company of carmaker SAIC Motor, and currently, China Travel Service (Holdings) Hong Kong.

In inviting someone like me to join their board, these companies sought an external perspective to help ensure proper governance. At no point before or during any board meeting was I ever asked to vote a certain way. No one tried to interfere with my professional judgment on what would be good for the companies.

In all these years of board meetings, I cannot recall any discussion that centered on serving a certain political agenda. Rather, the discussions were inevitably about business. Just as with a large Western company, the talk was of revenue, profit, market share, cash flow and returns on investment and how to improve them.

Of course, government policy would at times be a matter for discussion. Beijing has for some years been pushing through a consolidation of the steel sector, for example, so that inevitably surfaced in deliberations when I was a director at Baosteel.

It is also important to note that Chinese SOEs are far from uniform in their governance or outlook. For companies involved in sectors that touch on national security, discussions about the government’s agenda would be much more natural than in consumer-focused sectors like travel and autos.

Other SOEs are tasked with providing public services, such as infrastructure, health care and education. Notably, their evaluation of projects is generally based more around addressing utility for the public than a simple internal rate of return.

In open sectors like retail, consumer goods or pharmaceuticals, however, Chinese SOEs have to survive in perhaps the world’s most intensely competitive market.

Many of these SOEs feel they are falling behind their private-sector peers in innovation and are under pressure to catch up or collaborate with them. They are particularly concerned with whether they can continue to effectively compete as China opens up more sectors to private-sector participation, especially by foreign companies.

Even in sectors like banking and insurance where SOEs traditionally held unshakable positions, they are no longer immune to competition from the private sector. Consider how Alibaba Group Holding affiliate Alipay and Tencent Holdings’ WeChat Pay now dominate online payments. With a focus on adapting technology, Ping An Insurance Group has overtaken state-owned peers like China Life Insurance to become the country’s largest insurer.

 

Chinese SOEs do enjoy some advantages because they are owned by the state, but this is most true in sectors involving national security or public infrastructure, like energy and telecommunications. In such cases, the SOEs’ ownership of key assets and their protected operating franchises are somewhat comparable to those of public monopolies like water companies or postal services in Western countries.

A number of them, such as telecommunications infrastructure company China Tower, also benefit from having other SOEs as their main clients.

Local governments in China also tend to favor purchasing from SOEs based in their region as a means of supporting them as significant area employers and taxpayers. This can come into play, for example, with orders for official vehicle fleets.

Further, state companies have long had a significant advantage in getting access to bank credit from the SOE-dominated banking system but this has been changing.

According to Moody’s Investors Service, SOEs accounted for 52.6% of outstanding bank corporate lending as of Dec. 31 even though they have been generating less than 40% of overall output.

But after President Xi Jinping declared private enterprise to be an essential part of China’s economic system late last year, the country’s financial regulators pledged to widen access to credit and financial support for the nonstate sector.

These changes are taking time to implement, but policy is headed in the right direction and technology is helping to take the place of ownership in assessments of the creditworthiness of individuals and small businesses.

Chinese SOEs also carry social burdens much more often than private companies. As an SOE, Baosteel had to invest considerable time and effort to address the labor and community impact when it shut down older factories in urban areas to move to cheaper locations.

Until now, China’s parallel structure of SOEs and privately owned companies has largely worked well. As a whole, this duality has been a source of resilience for China, not a drag.

Yet officials in Beijing have identified reform of state-owned enterprises as an imperative. Of late, this effort has focused on diversifying the shareholding of many SOEs. This has included the introduction of private capital in some cases.

To make mixed ownership reform a success will require the establishment of proper corporate governance structures and principles. The role of the state agency that oversees SOEs will have to shift over time from direct control to being one among a number of shareholders. These changes will help SOEs to be able to compete effectively in China’s fast-changing and increasingly innovation-driven environment.

About the author:Dr. Edward Tse
CEO of Gao Feng Advisory
Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution for International Finance. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies, investors, start-ups, and public-sector organizations (both headquartered in and outside of China) on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version of 《创业家精神》).

 

【Quote of Today】 September 17th

The Resilient Organization. This organization is flexible enough to adapt quickly to external market shifts, yet it remains steadfastly focused on and aligned with a coherent business strategy. This forward-looking organization anticipates changes routinely and addresses them proactively. It attracts motivated team players and offers them not only a stimulating work environment, but also the resources and authority necessary to solve tough problems.

 

HSM | China’s Mega Platforms Organizations

Edward Tse

Gao Feng Advisory’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse’s article was published in his regular column on Brazil’s HSM Management Magazine. In this article, Dr. Tse wrote about China’s mega platforms companies. China’s innovations are not just about monetization. It’s an inspiration for new intellectual capital on how businesses generate their strategy and innovations. They enrich the world’s thought leadership.

 

English Version
China’s Mega Platforms Organizations

The most valuable Chinese companies today are typically “mega ecosystem” players which operate networks of businesses that can support each other and supplement each other’s capabilities. Internet giants, Alibaba and Tencent, arguably the most well-known companies in China, are now in the top ten of public companies by market capitalization.

The notion of a business ecosystem is not new. Apple, one the world’s most valuable companies, was a pioneer in this regard. Other leading U.S. tech companies such as Amazon and Alphabet are also ecosystem players. Chinese companies, however, have turned out to be even more adept at building such organizations.

Prime examples of mega ecosystems in China today include Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Building out from their original core businesses, they have jumped into a string of new sectors.

Alibaba started as a small business-to-business online marketplace almost 20 years ago and jumped in with consumer-to-consumer site Taobao and later business-to-consumer site Tmall. To support these businesses, Alibaba started Alipay to support mobile online payments and then used it as a platform to offer wealth management services.

Today, Alibaba’s has also branched into areas including “automobility”, “big health”, media, “new retail”, location services, cloud services, and smart logistics.

Xiaomi, the youngest Fortune 500 company, is a leading ecosystem players with a range of businesses in hardware, internet services and new retail. By partnering up with a hundred more start-ups since 2013, Xiaomi has been able to add many more products onto its In-ternet of Things (IoT) platform, without having to produce them in-house. Today, Xiaomi offers more than 300 lifestyle products and are connecting more than 170 million devices (excluding mobile phones and laptops).

Xiaomi’s smartphone business is becoming a smaller part of its business, while internet services are growing. To this end, it has added to its portfolio apps ranging from online games, eBooks, live streaming, music and videos, internet finance, cloud services and automotive social platforms. This allows them to monetize on ser-vices after selling low-priced hardware, which could drive a large part of revenue going forward.

With such a large range of products in its portfolio, Xiaomi has made the jump into new retail that aims at seamlessly interconnecting its online and offline channel. Over the years, Xiaomi has built interac-tions and close relationships with its supporters, affectionately called the “Mi-fans.”

Xiaomi’s founder and leader, Lei Jun, has said that the next strate-gic move would be building a smartphone + AIoT (AI and IoT) in anticipation of 5G technology. With this strategy, it is likely that Xiaomi would extend its ecosystem, and increase in the variety of Xiaomi applications.

When Chinese companies sense a market opening, they would quickly make the jump to capture the opportunities and try to make up the gaps in capabilities through ecosystems of collaborative part-nerships. In contrast, most foreign corporations tend to focus on what they have been doing all along and avoid “diversification”. Foreign companies operating in China have now increasingly recog-nized this difference and are catching up by learning from Chinese companies and participating into their ecosystems.

About the Author
Dr. Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, and a founding Governor of Hong Kong Institution for International Finance. One of the pioneers in China’s management consulting industry, he built and ran the Greater China operations of two leading international management consulting firms for a period of 20 years. He has consulted to hundreds of companies, investors, start-ups, and public-sector organizations (both headquartered in and outside of China) on all critical aspects of business in China and China for the world. He also consulted to the Chinese government on strategies, state-owned enterprise reform and Chinese companies going overseas, as well as to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He is the author of several hundred articles and four books including both award-winning The China Strategy (2010) and China’s Disruptors (2015) (Chinese version «创业家精神»).

 

【Quote of Today】 August 16th

Innovations and entrepreneurship have become core to China’s culture. Young people from all over are trying to become successful. Many will fail and they know but a small number will make it. A small % of a large number is a large number. And the ones who make it will become role models for others.

Inspiring Innovations through Curiosity in the China Context

By Edward Tse

December 2018

This article is the introduction to the China highlights in the State of Curiosity Report 2018 published by Merck Group

Source: Google

The last 40 years of China’s reform and market liberalization have brought profound changes and tremendous progress to the country’s economy, especially to its business landscape. Along the way, China has evolved into its own development model without consciously planning for it – a “Three-layer Duality”. At the top, the central government sets the overall development priorities. At the grass-root level, the private sector entrepreneurs are now a major driving force in the Chinese economy. In the middle, various local governments, in response to the directions from the top, compete, and sometimes collaborate in regional clusters, often by teaming up with the entrepreneurs. With both a state sector and a private sector co-existing – in some cases competing and in others playing their own distinctive roles – this duality is a defining feature of the Chinese economy.

This three-layer working paradigm has stimulated the exponential rise of curiosity-driven business innovations, especially from the private sector. The rise in workplace innovation is reflected in Merck’s 2018 State of Curiosity survey, a multi-dimensional model that measured the importance of curiosity and innovation across several countries. China, above the US and Germany, found that innovation played a meaningful role in its workplace culture. With this value on innovation, the country has shed its copycat stigma and emerged as an epicenter of tech-enabled innovations. According to reports by Xinhua News Agency last year in 2017, the internet and technology sector – ranging from AI, big data, IoT, and robotics – grew twice as quickly as the overall gross domestic product over the past decade. Born with a different set of characteristics in each generation, Chinese entrepreneurs are thriving in what is now the world’s second-largest birthplace of unicorns (unlisted companies valued at or above US$ 1 billion that established within 10 years).

Source: Google

What has enabled China to move from copycat to curious innovator?

1. First and foremost, it is due to the “why not me?” mindset. Realizing the huge gap between China and the rest of the world, especially in the early days of the country’s reform and opening, Chinese entrepreneurs were compelled to show the world that they too could succeed.

2. As the economy transformed, China’s societal pain points that once were hidden became exposed. Coupled with the prevalence of technology, especially the commercial application of smart devices through the wireless internet, these new conditions provided the breeding ground for innovations.

3. While state-owned counterparts are typically slower in responding to these changes, private sector entrepreneurial companies rose to the challenge and took on the opportunities.

4. At the same time, China’s massive market allowed companies to rapidly scale up and its hyper-competition spurred companies to speed up their innovations to stay ahead in the game.

5. Finally, along the way, Chinese companies have benefited greatly from the vast capital pool and angel investors, and the investors, in turn, have benefited from exceptional returns on their investments in China.

Regardless of whether these investors came from abroad or home, Chinese entrepreneurial companies, especially tech companies, often pattern themselves after companies in the US Silicon Valley. Leaders of these organizations often work alongside the team, making it easy for them to capture market changes and make quick decisions. These leaders (usually founders and managers) are typically strong and visionary – a common trait of Chinese entrepreneurial organizations and culture. Structures of these organizations especially during their early phase tend to be flat thereby allowing efficient response to the ever-changing business environment.

While these companies have strong leaders at the top, they also have appreciable empowerment across the organization, which may sound like a paradox. However, institutional curiosity manifests itself often in a profound manner, particularly in tech companies during their entrepreneurial phases. A few key drivers are noted for these organizations in the form of Curiosity dimensions, as defined by Merck.

The first is the openness to people’s idea: The relatively open organization structure in Chinese tech companies enables more openness and better communications among team members.

The second is stress tolerance: There are more ambiguity and uncertainty in China’s rapid and disruptive evolution. Entrepreneurs must be willing to try and embrace pressure.

The third is joyous exploration: Growing income and better living conditions over the past decade have uplifted people’s expectation that the future will be better. They’re more willing to explore a life that’s better and more joyous.

Last but not least is deprivation sensitivity: Entrepreneurship makes people more sensitive to deprivation. If there is a gap, Chinese entrepreneurs are curious about it and more determined to close the gap.

With these highly adaptive characteristics, Chinese tech companies are embracing new and emerging technologies, and China as a whole is at the front seat witnessing the Fourth Industrial Revolution – the merging of physical, digital and biological means. With technologies such as AI, IoT and Blockchain are here and 5G coming just around the corner, the Chinese are significantly embracing them to enable the next generations of innovations.

Going forward, we expect more tech-enabled innovations driven by heightened organizational curiosity from China. Though it is a universal phenomenon that the bar for success remains high, given the scale of the China market, its fast growth, its increasing prevalence of various forms of technologies and the prowess of its “three-layer duality” paradigm, the “odds of making it” are expected to be on the Chinese side. China’s path towards an innovative economy will inevitably involve many ups and downs, perhaps at times becoming quite turbulent and wasting some resources. However, one should acknowledge China’s consistent drive toward better livelihood for its people and a “community of shared future” for the humankind. At the heart of it, the source of this inspiration is the intrinsic curiosity of its organizations.

China Daily | Many Unicorns Don’t See Profits

China Daily Global

Updated: 2019-05-27

The Hurun Research Institute, which compiles lists of China’s wealthiest individuals, released the Hurun Greater China Unicorn Index 2019 Q1 along with the Hurun China Future Unicorns 2019 Q1 on May 7.

According to Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the Hurun Report, which is a research, media and investments business, the total number of unicorns-startup companies valued at $1 billion or more-in China has reached a record 202, possibly the highest across the globe.

These Chinese unicorns include Alibaba’s financial technology affiliate Ant Financial, which is valued at $150 billion, and ByteDance, an internet company behind machine learning-enabled content platforms like TikTok (also known as Douyin) and Toutiao.

Tech startups today have not been able to replicate the financial success of well-known tech giants such as Google, Facebook and Alibaba. For example, China overtook the United States in AI investment in 2017, but around 90 percent of the AI companies were unprofitable.

This phenomenon is not exclusive to China. Some of the biggest names around the world have yet to make money, such as the publicly listed electric car maker Tesla and music streaming company Spotify, which are losing billions. Ride-hailing platform Uber lost $1.8 billion last year, but still made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange this month.

 

Although there are many startups that are unprofitable, it is probably unfair to compare established tech companies with the internet unicorns of today. The nature of entrepreneurship implies that there will always be winners as well as losers, best illustrated recently by the dotcom crash.

So what is driving the rapid valuation growth of many internet startups that are still incurring huge financial losses? Favoring growth over profit, investors are embracing so-called “growth companies” like Amazon, the world’s third most valuable company despite pale profits. As capital is currently cheap, creating growth is more valuable than improving margins.

Why then, do some startups fail but some eventually succeed? First, many of those that failed were not able to address an essential need. The digital boom and fast money in the 2000s created plentiful space for first-generation technological companies, especially in sectors like e-commerce.

However, it is becoming harder for the current generation of tech companies to tap into that growth, since low-hanging fruit has already been taken.

As investors continue to search for the next Alibaba or Google and more unicorns appear, some might just need time to prove themselves, while others will simply be growing for the sake of growth without any prospects for profit.

HSM | China’s Age of Innovation and Game-Changers

Dr. Edward Tse’s article was published in his regular column on Brazil’s HSM Management Magazine. In this article, Dr. Tse discussed how China’s system works to the favour of the country’s tech-enabled business innovations.

English Version

China’s Age of

Innovation and Game-Changers

Branded for decades as a “copycat nation”, China has now re-emerged as a global epicenter of business and technological innovations. The internet and tech sector – ranging from ride-hailing to e-commerce, robotics and artificial intelligence – grew 20 percent in 2018 to a total of 142 billion USD value. Two Chinese companies, Tencent and Alibaba are now among the top ten of the world’s most valuable companies. China has also become the second-largest birthplace of unicorns (unlisted companies valued at or above US$1 billion), and has filed the largest number of domestic AI-related patents, trumping Silicon Valley by as much as seven times, according to CB Insights.

Several drivers contribute to China’s rapid transformation. First, a “why not me” mindset drove the Chinese entrepreneurs who, realizing the huge gap between China and the rest of the world, in particular during the early years of China’s reform and opening, want to show that they too could succeed.

Second, as its economy transformed, China’s once-hidden societal pain points became exposed; coupled with the prevalence of technology (especially the wireless internet and smartphones), these pain points provided the breeding ground for innovations.

Third, while their state-owned counterparts are typically slower in adaptation, privately-owned entrepreneurial companies rose to the challenge and took on the opportunities. At the same time, China’s massive market allowed companies to rapidly scale up, and its hyper-competition spurred companies to continuously innovate.

Finally, Chinese companies have benefited greatly from the vast pools of venture capital and angel investors. Many of the investors, including both foreign and local, have also benefited from exceptional returns on their investments in China.

The innovative ecosystem arose from China’s unique “Three-layer Duality” development model. At the top, the central government’s guiding hand sets goals and directions for the country, giving the rest of the country clear targets to follow. At the grass-roots level, the private sector entrepreneurs have re-emerged since the end of China’s Cultural Revolution and is a major force in driving the growth of China’s economy. And, In the middle, China’s local governments channel their resources into national and local priorities, often collaborating closely with entrepreneurs who bring innovative ideas to bear. Local governments often compete with each other, but they also cooperate within regional clusters. Though the model occasionally suffers from glitches, in general, the coexistence of private and state-owned players provides tremendous resilience for the growth of both sectors.

China’s path towards an innovative economy will, however, not simply be a straight line; it will inevitably involve many ups and downs. The probability of successful innovations for anyone – either large corporate or startups – is low. Nonetheless, with the scale of the China market, its relatively fast rate of growth, the increasing prevalence of various forms of technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet-of-Things, blockchain technology and 5G, as well as the prowess of its “three-layer duality” paradigm, one would expect that China could continue to drive innovations in significant ways.

China Daily | Finding a Third Way Forward

By Edward Tse | China Daily Asia

Agile Chinese entrepreneurs are emerging as business thought leaders with their ‘multiple jumping’ expansion strategy

Ever since Deng Xiaoping hit the gas pedal on China’s economic reform when he made his famous Southern Tour to Shenzhen in 1992, companies in China — big and small — have been looking for ways to better manage, develop strategies and capture value.
For the first 30 years of the People’s Republic of China, the country was organized under a planned economy. There was no notion of companies, shareholder value, management or strategy. So when China’s economic reform started and when entrepreneurs first emerged, they by definition would not have had any formal education in modern management or prior experience in actually running a company.

The rapid growth of China’s market and the emerging competition drove many of these entrepreneurs to look for ways to better plan and manage their businesses.
The first wave of management consulting firms and business schools came to China from the West in the early to mid-1990s, and brought along established knowledge, theories and frameworks. Chinese businesspeople were attracted to these new ideas as they searched for ways to help run their businesses better.

In the West, from the 1970s to 1980s, the notion of conglomerates was dominant. Companies like ITT and Tyco in the United States and Hanson Trust in the United Kingdom grew into large amalgamations of businesses, often across a range of unrelated sectors.

The notion was that “big is good”. After a while, the capital market decided that conglomerates were not such a good idea after all, because of the lack of synergies across the various businesses.

In 1990, Gary Hamel and CK Prahalad from the University of Michigan published an article called The Core Competence of the Corporation, focusing on this trend. They argued that well-performing companies compete based on their strengths, or what they called core competences or capabilities. This theory caught on quickly in the Western business community and became the governing thought for companies’ strategy formulations.

Today it is still the case. Using this theory, the capital market suggests that companies should focus on their areas of strength. And, by implication, companies should not expand arbitrarily beyond their areas of strength.

When management consulting firms and business school academics first came to China, they brought along these concepts and used them as guiding frameworks to advise Chinese clients. However, the Chinese executives, while intrigued, quickly came to the realization that something was missing.

While useful, these frameworks could not quite explain the overall context of doing business in China. The consultants and academics also quickly realized that business in China is somewhat different, although they could not explain exactly what the difference was.

In the meantime, the external operating environment was evolving fast, both in the world and particularly in China.

China’s fast economic growth, its gradual but consistent transition from planned economy toward market economy, the emergence of highly intensive competition in the open sectors, and the increasing prevalence of technology and the availability of angel investing and venture capital funds, all contributed to the emergence of waves of entrepreneurship and innovation in China that the country had not seen before.

In their search for growth strategies, these Chinese entrepreneurs were typically fast and agile. Some of them developed diversified conglomerates, and there were others that decided on a narrow focus, taking the core competence approach. The results have been mixed.

Interestingly, some of them, through trial and error, discovered a third way of strategy development. We call it “multiple jumping”.

When these entrepreneurs see new opportunities evolving, even if they do not have all the capabilities to fully operate the new business, they decide if they should jump over or not.

So far, some of the companies that have jumped have been successful in latching onto the new business sector. Often, they will repeat the process when newer opportunities turn up. When these companies jump, they try to fill their capability gaps either through their own efforts or by collaboration with other companies, or by using both approaches.

This multiple jumping approach to strategy is different from a conglomerate approach because, despite their involvement in multiple sectors, these companies generally keep their original heritage as their core.

On the other hand, multiple jumping clearly defies the core competence approach, because these companies are willing to enter new areas of business without having the expected core competences established.

So, this multiple jumping approach is another way to think about strategy beyond the conglomeration and core competence approaches. We call it The Third Way.

It provides another way for companies to decide how they should develop their business strategies in a fast-growing, discontinuous operating environment abounding with fertile opportunities.

A prime example of a company that has successfully adopted this approach is Alibaba, which has interests in industries including healthcare, the media and consumer finance as well as its core e-commerce business. Coincidentally, US companies such as Amazon and Google have also grown through this approach.

As China’s operating environment continues to rapidly evolve, innovation and entrepreneurship are thriving. Companies are looking for even more inspiration for growth. Many entrepreneurs continue to look at the West, especially at the US, for inspiration in technology, management and investment models. Some are also examining Chinese historical philosophies for guidance.

Today, in addition to a growing number of consulting firms, business schools and training companies in China, many corporations have also set up their own “universities” or “academies”. Business executives, successful or not, are eager to share their experiences in running businesses and some have turned into modern philosophers.

Conferences and seminars organized around themes of business, innovation and transformation take place regularly in different cities throughout China. Airport bookstores, where business traveler traffic is heavy, stock a proliferation of business books. Videos showing various “experts” talking about the secrets of successful business are now commonplace.

Social media, in particular, has become a popular medium for people to share their points of view — freely critiquing others’ successes and failures, with or without any real business experience of their own. Online celebrities emerge from the corners and some have captured many eyeballs with their opinions on business trends and remarks on individual businesspeople.

A fair number of Chinese entrepreneurs are still relying on brute force and guanxi (relationships) to run their businesses, but increasingly, some regard knowledge as the key source for building their companies’ sustainable competitive advantages. To this end, they actively search for new ways of building businesses.

On the surface, these attempts may seem unsystematic and perhaps some will prove futile. But some are creating new patterns that could become cutting-edge thinking, and they could form a new cornerstone for business thought leadership that will bring about future inspirations for the rest of the world.

Edward Tse is founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm with roots in China. He is also the author of China’s Disruptors (2015).

 

SCMP | Common Goals : the US and China should Collaborate instead of Simply Focusing on Competition

Original published by South China Morning Post on May 6, 2019. All rights reserved

Embroiled in a trade war with China, the Trump administration, in February, signed an executive order aiming to spur the development of artificial intelligence, in response to the rising fear in academia and government that the US is losing the race for global AI leadership to China.

Such fears are not entirely unfounded. China has a well-funded commitment to the development of AI. The leadership in Beijing has outlined its ambitions in various development plans, including the initiative to build “advanced manufacturing”. According to Tsinghua University’s China AI development report, released last year, China has secured a leading position in the AI echelon in both technology development and market applications. China ranked first in the total number of AI research papers and AI-related patents, and second in terms of the size of its AI talent pool.

There are several key drivers of China’s progress. First, it enjoys a fundamental system advantage. In the past four decades since its “reform and opening up”, China has somewhat unconsciously evolved its own “three-layer duality” development model. At the top, the central government’s guiding hand sets goals and directions for the country, giving the rest of the nation clear targets to follow. At the grass-roots level, private-sector entrepreneurs have re-emerged and become a major force in driving economic growth.

In the spirit of driving the development of advanced manufacturing, provinces and cities across China have instituted preferential policies for AI start-ups. For example, Tianjin, a major port city in the northeast, launched a US$16 billion fund last year to bolster the local AI industry. Tech companies collaborate with local governments on AI initiatives such as smart city, health care and autonomous driving. Alibaba’s ET City Brain project uses AI to tackle traffic jams, reducing traffic delays by 15.3 per cent in parts of Hangzhou, the city in which Alibaba is headquartered.

Second, the massive size of the Chinese economy allows companies, especially AI companies, to rapidly scale up. China now boasts more than 800 million internet users, roughly 58 per cent of its total population and three times larger than the number in the US. According to the China Internet Network Information Centre, 98 per cent of them are mobile internet users. The large online population generates an abundance of data, on which algorithms can conduct large-scale research and experiments much faster and more intensely than is possible in the West.

For better or worse, Chinese are more relaxed about data privacy than Westerners, at least for now. What may be viewed as a violation of privacy by some could be advantageous for AI developers wanting to extract a large amount of data. This situation allows Chinese AI developers to achieve more accurate machine learning models in areas such as facial recognition, voice and gesture recognition, consumer behaviour analysis and robotics process automation.

Third, a “why not me” mindset drives Chinese entrepreneurs, who are eager to show that they too could succeed. Today, younger entrepreneurs view their successful predecessors as role models and want to replicate their success. China’s hypercompetitive environment harbours cutthroat commercial activities and transformative business models, allowing the fruits of AI to quickly spread across the economy.

China tops the list of the number of active AI companies and venture capital investment. Leading players, such as Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, are investing heavily in AI technology. For example, in 2018, Tencent invested about US$120 million in Shenzhen-based humanoid robot designer UBTECH Robotics. Baidu not only poured US$1.5 billion into its Apollo Fund for autonomous driving, but has also developed a neural-network-based machine translation system that has at times achieved speech recognition accuracy higher than that of humans.

Rising start-ups, on the other hand, have created tremendous value. Among those is the previously mentioned UBTECH Robotics, the world’s highest-valued AI start-up at US$5 billion. ByteDance, the company behind AI-powered news and information content platform Toutiao and popular short video platform TikTok, has grown 230 per cent in revenue in the past two years.

While the Chinese tend to favour applications of existing technologies, the West focuses more on the science and infrastructure behind AI. Fundamental research is high-hanging fruit that would take much more time and risk to achieve results than commercial applications.

However, there are signs that this is also beginning to change. The Chinese government is planning support for AI education, research and development. One of the newer projects, the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, offers a forward-looking blueprint for basic theory and common key technologies. Another project on brain science and brain-inspired research is comparable to Europe’s Human Brain Project and the US’ BRAIN Initiative. Inevitably, some of these technological experiments will fail but others will make it. It is through experimentation that progress can be made.

Should we simply focus on the winner of the “race” between China and the US? “Race” implies a zero-sum game, as if the two countries must treat each other as “strategic competitors” and acknowledge a mutual threat. While there is competition, there is also plenty on which to collaborate. In today’s increasingly interconnected world, we need organisational means to address issues that transcend national borders, including those of AI development and governance.

Some level of collaboration in AI among American and Chinese researchers is already under way. For example, the Partnership on AI, an organisation founded by Amazon, Google, Facebook and others, announced last year that Baidu would join its network. The consortium of companies recognised the importance of global discussion around the future of AI and showed a desire to counter the arms-race narrative. There is a need for China and the US to focus more on similarities and common goals for the betterment of the entire world.

Picture Source | Google

Clariant | What Drives Business and Innovation in China?

What Drives Business and Innovation in China?

We are pleased to share with you an interview report on the topic of What Drives Business and Innovation in China?, which was published on Clariant Integrated Report 2018. It includes an interview with us that covers our perspectives on China’s innovations.
Q: Edward, what’s the biggest misconception Western companies have about China?
It’s the presumption that China’s development will follow the path of the West, and that they can simply copy and paste their strategy and business model to China. The typical Western stance is, ‘If this cookie-cutter approach results in success, that’s great and we know what we are doing! However, if it doesn’t, then the problem has got to be with China, and not our strategy’.
Q: What makes China so different?
It’s an ancient civilization going back 5 000 years, but its modern business development is exceptionally young. Only since the reforms and opening of the late 1970s has China started to reconnect with the rest of the world. That development is far from perfect, but it has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. The China that you’re seeing now comes from a rather unique background and makes for a very different context compared to that of the West.
Q: Is the role of the government as big as we think?
Going from a Soviet-style planned economy to a market economy takes time, and China is not entirely there yet. But today, relative to the state sector, China’s private sector is by far the bigger job creator and contributor to the country’s GDP. It’s also the primary source of business innovation. The reemergence of the Chinese entrepreneurial spirit is probably the most profound development in China’s recent history.
Q: It led you to write a book in 2015 about ‘China’s Disruptors’ What contributed to their success?
What certainly helped was the size and growth of the China market, which allowed for rapid scaling of their business models. The prevalence of digital technology, specifically the wireless internet through smart devices, was the critical enabler.
Q: What chapters would you like to add to this book today?
What’s special today is the fact that entrepreneurship is not just for the privileged. It has become the fabric of Chinese culture today. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) still play an important role, but many young people have realized that starting a business or working for a start-up rather than an SOE is a path for them to get where they want to be. If I were to write a new book about Chinese innovation today, it would be about the new era we’re entering with technologies like artificial intelligence, the internet of things, blockchain technology, and 5G. Those will have a profound impact on China’s innovation and business. The Chinese entrepreneurs will be at the forefront of that.
Q: Are Western executives in China less open to innovation?
Western executives are very keen – I would even say indoctrinated – to base their strategy on the doctrine of core competencies: ‘Focus on what you are good at and don’t divert your attention to anything else’.
Q: Why is that bad for innovation?
Because it limits what the company is willing to consider. Chinese entrepreneurs don’t necessarily have that ideological baggage. Many of them are happy to develop multiple business ecosystems even if they don’t have all the capabilities in place themselves. When they feel a new opportunity is worth pursuing, often they would rather jump before anybody else does and then fill the capability gaps along the way.
Q: Are the gold rush days over for Western companies in China?
China continues to evolve and to open up. China today is very different from China ten years ago, and it will again look very different ten years from now. There is major potential for more growth. But if you want to make the most out of that, you need to put China at the core of your global strategy and organization, which means making China a part of your corporate brain. Including the ability to evaluate opportunities and to design, innovate, and execute new ideas. It’s impossible for a corporate headquarter that is thousands of miles away to fully appreciate what’s going on on the ground in China.

SCMP | Levelling the Field

By Edward Tse

Levelling the Field: Foreign Firms will Need to Raise their Game in China with New Investment Law

Original published by South China Morning Post on March 23, 2019. All rights reserved.

China has just passed a new law that will replace existing regulations on wholly foreign-owned enterprises and on joint ventures involving overseas companies. In response to changing global realities and the need to further open up its economy, the new law includes many stipulations that aim to foster a level playing field for foreign and domestic enterprises.

Forced technology transfer, one of the main issues driving the US-China trade war, will now be banned. The law also emphasises intellectual property rights protection for foreign investors and encourages technological cooperation. Other incentives include establishing special economic zones with attractive tax and business regimes, allowing the transfer of profit and capital gains out of the country and shortening the list of prohibited investment projects. Moreover, China will encourage foreign investors to participate in the mixed-ownership reforms of state-owned enterprises.

These changes are certainly welcome news for foreign businesses and the circle of politicians and lobbyists in Washington, who have long complained about a lack of market access in China. For many foreign multinational corporations, China has become one of their largest markets, if not the largest, in the world. Even for those that are only considering first-time entry, such as cross-border payment or credit card businesses, their global business models wouldn’t be complete without a credible presence in China. However, though a favourable signal, these legal changes cannot guarantee foreign multinationals success. The market conditions in China have evolved quite significantly over the past decade.

A major shift in the past decade has been the emergence of Chinese companies as bona fide competitors to foreign multinationals. Whereas foreign multinationals still enjoy advantages in sectors such as luxury goods, premium-branded cars and patented pharmaceuticals, Chinese companies have become serious competitors in e-commerce, fintech, fast-moving consumer goods, appliances and logistics.

Source: SCMP

Some of these Chinese competitors are large state-owned enterprises, especially in sectors that require strong state roles, such as energy and telecommunications. However, the most formidable, and the majority, are private companies marked by their speed, agility and creativity, in sectors where the playing field is practically open and even.

This phenomenon is part of the rise of business innovations in China over the past decade, as a combined result of increasingly prevalent technologies, local and central government policies and grass-roots level entrepreneurship. Ridding itself of the “copycat” stigma, China has nurtured a new internet and tech sector – ranging from ride-hailing to e-commerce, robotics and artificial intelligence – that grew 20 per cent in 2018 to a total value of US$142 billion.

Two Chinese companies, Tencent and Alibaba [the owner of the Post], are now among the world’s top 10 most valuable companies. Unicorns – unlisted companies that are less than 10 years old and valued at or above US$1 billion – are thriving. Ant Financial, a Chinese fintech company and an affiliate of Alibaba, is now the world’s largest unicorn with a valuation of US$150 billion. ByteDance, owner of Toutiao, a popular newsfeed app, and Tik Tok, a popular short video app, is valued at US$78 billion, ahead of the US-headquartered ride-hailing app Uber.

Regrettably, foreign multinationals have largely been bystanders to innovation of Chinese origin. However, the rapid changes in China’s innovation context is forcing them to react.For example, in the automotive industry, transformative trends such as electrification, autonomous driving, connected and intelligent vehicles and “mobility as a service”, which combines multiple private and public transport options for users, are forcing even the leading global carmakers to adapt. Across sectors, foreign companies are eager to connect to digitally savvy Chinese consumers through means such as super-apps like WeChat and online payment systems like Alipay and WeChat Pay.

Belatedly, foreign multinationals have began to recognise the need to learn from China, to innovate in China for China and perhaps even for the world. This will not be easy, as foreign companies need to embrace China as a breeding ground for innovation and for new thought leadership in business strategy. To do this right, they have to put China at the core of their global strategy, instead of seeing it merely as a market, albeit an important one.

So far, most of the foreign multinationals’ localisation efforts have remained basic – hiring local managers and assigning them only roles involving execution, while strategic planning and decision-making take place outside China, either in global or regional headquarters. Not only is this process not fast enough, it also does not take into account sufficiently the changes in the overall China context that can have a disproportionately large impact on a company’s China, and even global, strategy. Foreign multinationals should add substance to their localisation plans by appointing local thought leaders to senior levels, with the appropriate decision-making power and resources.

Foreign multinationals have tended to try to run their business in China by themselves, perhaps with some joint ventures here and there. Going forward, that won’t be enough as the changes in China, especially in innovation, will require capabilities beyond those that foreign multinationals are aware of. They should adopt a more open-minded approach with the idea of business ecosystems in China, and form collaborative partnerships with local companies, including established companies, start-ups, academics and research institutions, to augment their capabilities on the ground.

Like every new measure that comes out of China, the new foreign investment law will not be immune from scepticism from outside. However, the new law signals a friendlier environment that enables foreign multinationals to capture greater value in one of the world’s most important and dynamic markets. In the meantime, they should remember that in this ever-changing, increasingly competitive landscape where innovation is critical, they need to step up their game in China to capture the potential that the market offers.

Quote of Today (March 31)

In every consultant, there are bits of being a problem solver, a reporter and a process manager. The way these attributes manifest depends on the person. Most consultants believe they are problem solvers. In reality, lots are more inclined towards the latter two attributes.

China and the Power of Tech-Enabled Philanthropy

By Edward Tse | February 2019

Dr. Edward Tse’s article on China’s philanthropy was published in the augural issue of Social Investor, commissioned by the Chandler Foundation.

From e-commerce platforms and Internet mobility service providers to AI and blockchain developers, Chinese technologies companies are transforming China’s economy and changing entire industries – including philanthropy.

China has a long tradition of giving, although it stagnated for roughly three decades when wealth was nationalized under the rule of Mao Zedong. Today, China is home to more billionaires – 819 in terms of US dollars – than anywhere else in the world, outnumbering the US and topping the Hurun Global Rich List 2018. And China’s super-rich are increasingly engaging in philanthropic causes.

According to Harvard University and UBS, between 2010 and 2016, donations from the top 100 philanthropists in mainland China more than tripled to US$ 4.6bn, and 46 of the wealthiest 200 Chinese billionaires now have charity foundations. Giving is much more common among ordinary citizens as well. It was reported that early in 2016, more than 20% of the total charity in China came from individual donors, a number that has grown steadily over the years.

Corruption and Transparency Woes Impede Progress

Despite those growing numbers, the philanthropic industry has been plagued by corruption and a lack of transparency. These are especially prevalent with non-profit organizations that claim to be government-supported.

In 2011, for example, a woman named Guo Meimei received a substantive amount of money from an official at the Red Cross Society of China, then flaunted her luxurious lifestyle on social media. In 2012, to cite just one other example, the China Charities Aid Foundation was accused of money laundering and embezzling.

For private philanthropists, a number of institutional and social barriers make it difficult for them to build, promote, and sustain charitable organizations. Policies mandating high expenditure rates and low administrative costs are two such barriers. Private foundations are required to spend a minimum of 8% of their previous year’s assets, making it almost impossible to grow an endowment. As a result, philanthropy remains a largely monopolized, state-run sector, and donations are largely limited to a few causes: education, poverty alleviation, and healthcare.

 

Technology – the Great Gamechanger

However, new technologies have helped bring innovative approaches to philanthropy and encouraged broader participation.

Tech giants, in particular, have already learned to take advantage of their branded merchandises to involve the general public in philanthropic activities. For example, in response to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, Tencent, the company behind China’s biggest social network as well as the largest gaming company in the world, established an online donation platform. More than half a million people contributed, raising a total of US$ 2.9m. Tencent added donation options to WeChat, the instant messaging and social media app with one billion monthly active users, and allowed users to give any amount with a swipe of a finger, making philanthropic engagement easier than ever.

New technologies have created more diversified ways of giving. The rising popularity of fitness apps in China has inspired tech companies to incentivize giving among the younger, more health-conscious, generation. Through the Xingshan (“doing good”) app developed by the Beijing-based company iMore, users record the number of steps they take each day, which is then “donated” to charities through corporate sponsors. By the end of 2015, users of Xingshan had walked a total of 2.8 million kilometres, raising more than US$ 4.6m for 52 different public welfare organizations and projects.

Facing the troubled reputations of charitable organizations, new types of charity platforms have stepped in to address both transparency and accountability issues. Real-time updates on donation collections, along with different verification systems, guarantee the funding reaches the right people at the right time. For example, JIAN Charity – launched by Alibaba’s Cainiao Logistics in 2016 – is an online donation platform where people can place orders and then track the real-time location of the items they donated.

When it comes to smaller donations – often a much more manual process – this kind of tracking can be challenging. By encoding the lifecycle of each donation on a blockchain, Ant Financial, a subsidiary of the tech giant Alibaba Group, addresses these transparency concerns and significantly reduces operating costs.

Embedded within a larger digital ecosystem like that of Alibaba’s, philanthropy has an even more magnified potential. On Taobao, an online shopping site, sellers can register for the “Treasures for Charity” program, allowing them to donate a portion of sales revenue to non-profit projects. Sellers not only draw more customers but this also boosts their conversion rate. Even though the per-deal donation can be as low as US$ 0.0058, the cumulative effect is significant: in 2017, 1.8 million participating sellers and 350 million buyers donated a total of 245m RMB (US$ 35.7m) to charity projects the world – owing to the enormous transaction volume and user base on the e-commerce platform.

A New Era for Philanthropy in China

China’s private wealth continues to expand, and philanthropy in the country is on an undeniably upward trajectory. New technologies are unlocking more inventive forms of giving, which become more synergized with companies’ mega business ecosystems. Public awareness about philanthropy is rising, while non-profit organizations are regaining their credibility and trustworthiness. I expect a brighter future.

Quote of Today (March 28)

“Like himan, organizations are driven by their subconsciousness. ‘Business as usual’ is the norm. That’s why many co’s can’t cope with today’s fast-changing environment. The leader’s job is to raise the level of consciousness of the organization so it’s fully alert.”

Quote of Today (March 27)

“The basic requirement of a qualified consultant is to excel in three types of leadership: Thought Leadership, Client Leadership and Team Leadership. Deficiency in any one of these dimensions would make a consultant incomplete.”

Quote of Today (March 22)

Everything in the world is a duality (underpinned by a union or non-duality). Sun and Moon. Yin and Yang. Order and Chaos. Intellect and Creativity. Strategy and organizations all manifest in terms of duality. The best problem solvers are those who are aware of this and can consciously balance the forces within the duality in a dynamic manner.”

Quote of Today (March 21)

With major disruptions taking place on both the demand and supply side epitomized by technological changes, massive market scale and gradual retorms, China has become the world’s leading business laboratory. The country has transcended its identity as a market or a manufacturing and supply base, it has become a definitive source of cutting edge intellectual capital on strategy and business. The radiation of that source to rest of the world will impact how executives, investors, academics and professionals expand their thoughts on businesses.

Quote of Today (March 20)

Organizations are consisted of people. While most people are disillusioned by what their mind tell them, the same thing happen in organizations but with a much bigger scale. This is what we call “organizational subconsciousness.” Left to its own course, this could be dangerous and could lead an organization to deprivation. The job of a leader is to lead the organization to build and sustain its “organizational mindfulness.”

Quote of Today (March 15)

Quantum physics tells us that the world is not entirely physical nor entirely deterministic. Same applies to organisations. While there are physical and deterministic aspects to an organization, there are also non-physical and probabilistic aspects. Leaders must understand this in totality and incorporate this understanding in leading an organization forward.

Quote of Today (March 1)

Problem solving is both a leap and also iteratiions. It’s a leap because at all times, a consultant needs to have clear hypotheses of what the answers to the problem ought to be. However, the hypothesis by definition would evolve as the consultant gathers data and carries out analyses along the way. At any given point in time, the consultant needs to have a vision of what the end answer would be. Usually that vision is pretty blurred at the beginning but as data come in, it would become clearer. However, with more data, newer vision would emerge and that is often blurred. It will become clearer as more data come in. This cycle of iterations will go on for a number of times till an acceptable picture evolves. That picture may have some resemblance with the original hypotheses but often there are plenty of differences. Leaps and iterations are the intrinsics to first-principle problem solving.

SCMP | Fuelling Bright Ideas

 

By Edward Tse | SCMP

Edward Tse says the trade war is helping to accelerate the mainland’s reform and innovation

Original published by South China Morning Post on February 4, 2019. All rights reserved.

In trying to curb China’s supposedly unfair trade practices and substantially reduce its trade deficit with China, the United States is unintentionally helping to accelerate China’s reform and innovation.

Washington’s trade war has gained support from many in the Sinophobic circle of politicians, businesses and lobbyists, who have long complained about Beijing’s treatment of foreign businesses, especially those from the US, on issues such as intellectual property protection, forced technology transfer and market access.

However, while it is arguable that China’s market liberalisation could be faster, it is unfair to say Beijing has blocked most foreign companies. In the tech sector, pundits lament that Facebook and Twitter are blocked in China, but neglect to mention Apple, Amazon, Bing, LinkedIn, eBay and Airbnb are not.

While Chinese tech giant Huawei has met with the American and other governments’ roadblocks overseas, its American counterpart Cisco continues to do business in China. As The Economist’s Schumpeter column notes in the June 28 edition, the picture of American firms being victimised in China is exaggerated.

Since US President Donald Trump’ tariff war broke out, China has accelerated the opening of its market to foreign companies. Last April, Beijing set a timetable for phasing out foreign ownership limits in the automotive industry. It is also easing curbs on sectors such as banking, securities, insurance, agriculture and aircraft manufacturing. Recently, BT Group became the first non-Chinese telecom company in China to get a nationwide operating licence. S&P Global’s Beijing-based wholly-owned subsidiary was also given a green light to enter the Chinese bond rating market.

Source: Internet

Reform is also coming to the private economy. To boost the private sector, Chinese President Xi Jinping met entrepreneurs last November, and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission chief Guo Shuqing followed up with a statement that no less than 50 per cent of new loans should go to private businesses.

At the same time, China is stepping up mixed ownership reform, that is, diversifying the ownership of parts of the state sector. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, 100 more state-owned enterprises will join the mixed-ownership reform programme. Along the way, many “zombie” enterprises will be eliminated.

To improve the protection of intellectual property right, China’s top court has started to rule on intellectual property cases since the beginning of this year; laws are also being drafted to ban forced technological transfer.

In Davos, Chinese Vice-President Wang Qishan stressed that China would continue to carry out structural reforms and adhere to multilateralism.

Last November, The New York Times wrote in a special report: “The Chinese economy has grown so fast for so long now that it is easy to forget how unlikely its metamorphosis into a global powerhouse was.” In fact, China owes the remarkable resilience of its economy to its own evolving development model of “three-layer duality”.

At the top, the central government sets goals and directions, giving the rest of the country clear targets to follow. At the grass-roots level, private entrepreneurs have re-emerged and become a major force in driving the growth of China’s economy. And in the middle, China’s local governments channel their resources into national and local priorities, often competing but also collaborating within regional clusters. To this end, they work closely with entrepreneurs who bring innovative ideas to bear.

Undoubtedly, the current trade dispute has generated much uncertainty and volatility for China, as well as the rest of the world. It has exposed a fundamental mistrust of China in certain parts of the West, and given some Western businesses an opportunity to amplify their long-standing concerns about China, justifiable or not, through their respective chambers of commerce. This should have woken up the Chinese government to the fact that it needs to adjust its approach. This is why Beijing is reinforcing its commitment to globalisation and accelerating reform.

Source: Internet

The short-term issues brought on by the trade dispute would naturally unsettle some foreign multinational companies operating in China, but for many others, especially the larger ones, China has become so strategically important that they must figure out a way to overcome the challenges.

China’s innovation – the fast-evolving consumer demand patterns, rapidly developing government policies and regulations, increasingly prevalent tech-enabled business innovations, and the emergence of bona fide innovative and competitive local companies – has led many foreign multinationals to the realisation that what they have learned in the West won’t give them an advantage in the local market any more. Their success in China is no longer guaranteed if they rely only on what they already know. They will need to learn how to innovate in China, for China, and also in China for the world – and this won’t be easy for many.

China has reached a turning point. The age of single-minded pursuit of growth is over, and there will instead be a focus on refining the country’s economic structure, quality and sustainability. However, many in the West and even some within China are doubtful about whether Beijing will be able to make the necessary changes in a timely manner.

The challenge remains for the Chinese government to demonstrate its commitment and ability to fully implement the changes. Paradoxically, the pressure from outside, intended to thwart progress, is likely to push China into more reform and opening. Expect new waves of developments and new opportunities for companies from all over. The companies who can seize these opportunities will be among the true winners in the trade dispute.

Quote of Today (February 28)

For a long time, mainstream strategy thinking says a company should seek an advantaged position in their industry based on their core competences and that would be fine. End of story. Some people call this holy grail “Positioning.” But is it? Business is always dynamic. That a static positioning that can guarantee a long-term success doesn’t make much sense. This limitation is exemplified by the increasingly fast speed, high volatility and heightened uncertainty of the operating environment. And industry boundary is constantly being redefined. So today’s strategy must be dynamic in nature and should be based on a continuous balance between opportunities and capabilities; chaos and structure; self-built and collaborative partnerships. A corporate leader’s job is to ensure that the right balance can be made along the way with the right rhythm.

Quote of Today ( February 27)

As consultants conduct problem definition, they also need to go through the entire thought process to address the problem. Problem definition goes first but inevitably its process is somewhat iterative. Thought process development proceeds commensurate with the problem definition process. Without a complete and appropriate thought process up front, many consultants would waste their time along the way. Worst, ultimately they are not able to adequately resolve the client’s problem for the client.

Quote of Today ( February 26th)

Problem solving is done in two ways. The first is based on expertise or experience on addressing similar issues. The second is to resort to first principles, going back to ask the most fundamental questions regarding the problem on hand. In reality, actual problem solving includes a combination of both, but the balance may differ. Expertise or experienced based problem solving is typically more efficient but could become linear and in-imaginative. First principles problem solving is needed to address ambiguous and fluid issues but could take more time. A good problem solver can master both and knows under what conditions what ought to be the optimal balance between the two approaches ought to be. And, adjust along the way.

Quote of Today (February 25th)

Where there is “core”, there is also “fringe.” That’s one way of how duality manifests itself in companies. While for a long time – and still today – consulting firms and many academics advocate “focus” through “core competencies,” the rise of successful businesses like AWS have shown the power of “from fringe to core.” So while there is “core competence”, companies also need to understand the power of “fringe competence.” The two go hand in hand.

Inkstone News | China Enjoys Many Advantages in AI Development

By Edward Tse
31 December 2018

Gao Feng’s CEO Dr. Edward Tse believes China’s sheer market size and lesser concern for data privacy could prove advantageous – but the US still leads in terms of research and creativity. This is a summary of his speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, published with the center’s permission but without Dr. Tse’s prior review or approval.

In the last 40 years since the start of China’s economic reform and opening up, a lot has happened. The most profound development in China is the rise of the private sector.

Compared to the state sector, the private sector contributes much more to GDP and the creation of new jobs. But more importantly, the private sector has been embracing emerging technologies, in particular over the last decade.

Ironically, this decade is epitomized by American inventions. The iPhone and the wireless internet have fundamentally changed China, and that has created a large number of innovations along the way.

China has the world’s largest internet economy. There are more than 800 million active internet users and Chinese consumers do everything online: shopping, ordering food and so on.

Artificial intelligence is another emerging technology. For Chinese people, technology has served us well in the past decade, so why not embrace it?

Vast amounts of data are being generated every moment. Whenever we are on WeChat, we tell the app what we are doing.

Whenever we buy anything on Alibaba or JD.com, we tell Alibaba and JD.com what we are doing. It’s the same thing here in America with Facebook and Twitter. The difference is the scale.

Source: Internet

Artificial intelligence is really about a lot of iterations. The larger the amount of data you have, the greater the opportunities for machine learning and fine-tuning the pattern recognition. Therefore, better results are yielded for commercialization.

Rightly or wrongly, China has gotten itself into a situation where data privacy protection is perhaps not as stringently applied, compared to many of the Western economies.

China fundamentally has a system advantage. It’s not only about the scale of the market, but also the state and the Communist Party.

When someone decides something, they will push it all the way down to the whole country and everybody has to obey.

But that’s not the only thing that happens in China. There is a large number of entrepreneurs, who are coming up with all sorts of innovations.

Chinese companies are investing significantly in new technology. But they’re nothing compared to the Googles, the Amazons and the Microsofts of the world.

The gap is still very significant. Americans are way ahead in terms of creativity and original research. The Chinese certainly would like to close the gap, but only time will tell if they could succeed.

I think China is likely to be a leader in AI, perhaps the leader in commercial applications. But it won’t be the leader in original ideas.

Edward Tse is founder & CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm with roots in Greater China. He is also author of China’s Disruptors.

Quote of Today (February 14th)

The boundary of a company’s business is a function of opportunities versus the company’s capabilities. As such, it’s dynamic. Of course, one doesn’t change its business boundary every day; however, a mechanical “focus” approach that never adjusts one’s business boundary may also not be that appropriate. The job of the company leader is to know how to consciously evaluate the trade-offs between opportunities and one’s own capabilities and decide if one needs to “jump over” to grab the new opportunities or not. Capability gaps can be filled along the way through self built and/or collaborative partnerships through ecosystems.

Quote of Today ( February 11th)

Like individuals, every organization has a character. Or personality. More fundamentally, it’s about “Who are you?” Lots of companies put their “vision”, “mission” or “values” which are crafted in plagues in the most visible locations. But do people really believe in them and internalize them in their daily behavior? Often not. Many companies do not have a clear sense of who they really are. They let their subconsciousness lead their behavior and end up being disillusioned. And eventually lose their direction and are trapped.

Quote of Today ( January 29th)

All organizations consist of opposite forces. When there is black, there is also white. Same for yin and yang. And structure and chaos. But each of these forces won’t be able to manifest itself without the other. No one knows what black is without knowing what white is. And vice versa. Ultimately, what’s apparently opposite is actually one of the same. Or the Oneness. The job of the leader of any organization is to help the people to see through the illusion of the duality and get to the real core of the non-duality or the oneness. When an organization gets the notion of oneness, it’s consciousness will manifest and it will know what, how and how fast to navigate in the most natural way.

Quote of Today (January 23rd)

We often say we do “projects.”  More appropriately, however, we should say we undertake “engagements.”  Projects signify a transaction. Engagements stand for symbiotic relationship that goes on.  It stands for mutual commitment.  And the relationship extends beyond the contractual duration.